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December 2025: New Working Paper. In this work "Good News Travels Fast: Global Demand Shocks, Oil Futures, and Emerging Markets Dynamics", we look at how surprises in global demand spread through the world economy, especially for emerging markets. Using a new way to track these shocks—based on how oil prices react to major job announcements in the US and Europe—we find that stronger global demand lifts production, lowers uncertainty, and improves financial conditions. For emerging markets, it boosts growth, raises inflation, strengthens their currencies, and reduces borrowing costs. Oil importers and exporters feel these effects differently, showing how net trade positions shape the impact. Our approach offers a new and reliable way to identify global demand shocks.
July 2025: Happy to announce that I have been selected to be part of the Copper Reference Price Advisory Committee of the Chilean Government's Budget Office. More details here (Spanish)
My name is David Coble and I hold a Ph.D in economics, obtained at the Department of Economics - The University of Chicago. I currently work as Economist at the International Monetary Fund in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department in Washington, DC. Previously, I worked as the Group Lead Economist of the Methodology and Quantitative Analysis Group at the Central Bank of Chile. My main research interests are Applied Macroeconomics and International Economics.
Prior to joining the Central Bank of Chile, I worked at InvestChile, the International Monetary Fund, and the Department of Economics at the University of Chile. While studying my Ph.D, I worked at the Becker Friedman Institute, the Energy Policy Institute, and the College at the University of Chicago.
My CV is available here.
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