Winters of 2012/2013…2013/2014 & 2013 UK / Planet Seismic and Volcanism Predictions
Up-dated Feb 4th 2013 - see bottom of page
(Also seen on the TPUC Forum on Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:31 am - page 89 http://www.tpuc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16873&start=880 )
© Richard C Crabtree Friday January 27th 2012
The notes for making these predictions were originally gathered in June 2008, and the subsequent predictions were constructed by my analysis of cosmic data as seen in the publication known as Raphael’s 51 Year Ephemeris 2000-2050 http://www.skylarkbooks.co.uk/Shop/media/raphaels_51_year_ephemeris.htm
To the very best of my knowledge these detailed predictions for the winter weather of 2012 / 2013 and 2013 / 2014 are the earliest (first published on this website on Friday January 27th 2012, then posted onto the TPUC forum http://www.tpuc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16873&start=880 on Sunday January 29th 2012) published detailed predictions of their type seen anywhere in the public or private domain in any form. Also to the very best of my knowledge, my predictions for the dated time periods that earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 or stronger and/or an increase in volcanic activity, i.e. volcanic eruptions etc., to occur in the UK or in other areas of the planet in 2013, are also the earliest (dates shown above) of their type published and placed into the public domain…… Richard C Crabtree, Crook County Durham - Friday January 27th 2012
Extract from my predictions published on June 11th 2008…… “There will be steady (at first) rise in Global weather phenomena such as heat- waves, hurricanes, gales, storms, heavy-snow fall (especially around 2013) torrential rain and floods up to 2012/2013 and possibly beyond.”
Two extracts from my post on the tpuc forum dated January 26th 2012……I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods………………………. Considering my mistake with the Perigee & Full Moon I’ve triple checked my winter 2012 / 2013 (into 2014) weather predictions, and what I will say right now is the 2012 / 2013 (into 2014) winter looks set to be very severe.
Updated 7-30AM Sunday January 29th 2012……An extract and link from this morning’s Daily Mail newspaper
5:38 AM on 29th January 2012…………………Forget global warming - it's Cycle 25 we need to worry about (and if NASA scientists are right the Thames will be freezing over again)Met Office releases new figures which show no warming in 15 years
NOTE 1……unless otherwise stated throughout these predictions; allow a margin of error - for the specific weather phenomena stated to occur - of 4 days either side of the specific day, days or time frames given; in the case of the Earth-quake or Volcanic predictions, allow a margin of error of 2 days either side of the day, days or time frame given.
(updated on January 20th 2013 - addition to the original statement made in NOTE 1, there is often a time lag of around, or up to, 4 days between a weather event that is directly related to the timing of any “cosmic-body” phenomena – for example: a solar flare that occurs at precisely 1pm on a given day may not show a related weather event on Earth for up to 4 days after the time of the flare, but conversely – an related weather event could occur within minutes; the same applies to Moon phases – for example: a last quarter moon often brings precipitation on the day of the phase, but it sometimes can take up to 4 days after the phase for precipitation to actually occur)
Section 1……Winter Weather for the UK 2012 / 2013 / 2014 & an Overview of the Rest of the World
Part A…… Winter Weather for the UK 2012 / 2013 / 2014 (in detail)
October 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, October 2012 will be much colder than the October of 2011… a general cooling as from Sat 8th (although slightly milder temperatures will be more apparent from the 19th through to around the 29th) with the most unsettled (wind / rain / snow) part of the month from the 8th through to the end of the month, although the 22nd to the 28th may be the most settled of an otherwise generally unsettled period in October…an increase in wind from around the 13th to around the 20th……south to south-westerly winds from the 19th then veering more west to north-westerly towards the end of October…northerly, north-westerly or north-easterly winds are more likely from the 4th to the 13th…the coldest mornings and/or days are likely on the 5th to the 9th, then the 15th to 18th, then the 22nd and the 29th….weather conditions on the 6th will likely prevail to around the 7th or 8th…frosts are more likely around the 6th, 8th, 15th then around the 29th.
November 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, November 2012 will be noticeably much colder than the November of 2011…the coldest periods are most likely from the 1st to the 14th then the 27th to the 30th …the most unsettled period (rain / sleet / snow) will be from the 7th through to around the 25th…Saturday the 16th may well be exceptionally cold, and there is a good probability that blizzard conditions may occur along the eastern flank of the UK, the south and / or south-easterly counties of England could well get the worst of any blizzard conditions should this snow event actually occur at this time…Generally, the November of 2012 could well turn out colder, and with more snow, than the November of 2010 – especially in the mid to southern counties of England, and November 2012 could well be colder than December 2010, especially from around November 10th through to around the 27th.
December 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, December 2012 will be much colder, and with the potential for much more snow, than the December of 2011 or the December of 2010…the coldest periods are likely to occur around the 6th, the 12th, the 20th and the 25th to the 31st…the period that will produce more snow will be from the 6th through to around the 20th, with the 6th to the 16th probably being the period when the greatest snow events will probably occur in December 2012…very windy conditions should be expected from the 11th through to around the 19th…the area from Hull down to the south coast of England may well experience heavy snow and blizzard conditions from around the 11th through to around the 19th, the westerly and northerly areas of the UK may be more likely to see heavy snow fall from around the 19th through to the 31st although all areas of the UK may well experience sever cold and snow as from the 6th through to months end
January 2013 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……On June 11th 2008 I made a very specific prediction, an extract from this prediction - (19) There will be steady (at first) rise in Global weather phenomena such as heat- waves, hurricanes, gales, storms, heavy-snow fall (especially around 2013) – various copies of my June 11th 2008 predictions were handed out to various local people at the time and were read and then signed by the same people; it was the winters of 2012 /2013 and 2013 / 2014 that I was referring to at the time in 2008, (more on the winter of 2013/ 2014 later)…………………Generally, January 2013 & January 2014 both have the potential for becoming the coldest and snowiest Januarys in living memory, and very likely for several hundred years at least…although I expect January 2013 to be exceptionally cold throughout, the very coldest period will probably start around the 10th then continue through to the 31st…the heaviest snow-fall should be expected as from the 5th to around the 15th…the windiest period will probably start around the 10th and continue through to months end, with the strongest winds more likely near the 10th & the 18th…the north-easterly to southerly latitudes of the UK will probably see the heaviest snow-fall from the 5th to the 15th with the westerly to northerly areas of the UK probably seeing the worst snow conditions from around the 15th to the 23rd, then the north-westerly to north-easterly areas from around the 23rd through to months end…dryer and cold conditions are more likely to occur from the 1st to around the 5th….blizzard conditions are more likely from around the 10th to around the 21st, with the mid to southerly areas of the UK more likely to see the worst blizzard conditions in this time frame.
February 2013 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally; February 2013 also has the potential for severe winter conditions, but probably less so than January 2013…the heaviest snow-fall is more likely from the 3rd through to the 13th…the coldest periods will probably occur from around the 7th to the 11th, then from around the 17th to months end…the windiest periods are more likely to occur around the 7th, 12th and the 26th…heavy snow is more likely to occur from the 3rd to the 12th, the mid to lower latitudes of the UK may see the worst of the conditions at this time, with the worse conditions for the westerly, and northerly areas of the UK probably seeing the worse conditions as from around the 12th to months end…the likeliest time for blizzard conditions will be from around the 5th to around the 13th then from around the 26th to months end.
March 2013 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally; March 2013 has the potential as being one of the coldest, windiest and snowiest Marches in recent history – much more so than the “average” March…although I expect the whole of March 2013 to show above average wind, the two most windiest periods are likely to be from the 1st to the 11th, then from around the 18th to months end…the coldest periods are likely from the 1st to around the 12th, then from around the 17th to the 28th…the heaviest snow (which is very likely), sleet or rain should be expected to occur from around the 3rd to around the 14th, with severe cold on the 4th…the mid to southern latitudes of the UK may probably see extremely cold blizzard conditions from around the 4th to around the 13th, with more westerly and northerly areas seeing the worse conditions from around the 13th to months end.
November 2013 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, November 2013 has the potential for being the second consecutive very cold November…the coldest periods will likely be from the 1st to the 12th, then the 17th to the 28th, with exceptional cold from the 1st to the 6th then very cold on the 17th, 18th, 19th and 20th…the two likeliest periods for heavy snow fall are from the 1st to around the 12th, then from the 25th to months end…expect very cold winds from the 1st to around the 8th…blizzard conditions are very likely from the 1st to around the 8th, with the mid to southern latitudes of the UK experiencing the worst of the conditions at this time…northern and western areas of the UK are more likely to see very cold conditions as from the 17th to months end, with the increasing likelihood of snow-fall from the 25th to months end.
December 2013 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally; December 2013 has all of the potential to be exceptionally cold and snowy – much more so at the beginning of the month and towards the end of the month…the 1st to around the 10th will be very cold, with the coldest days in this period probably being the 2nd to the 5th…the 15th to around the end of the month will also be extremely cold, but one of the coldest days will be the on the 29th…the periods with the most snow are very likely to be from the 3rd to around the 10th, then from around 25th through to months end…the 4th should see cold and windy conditions, but the potential for the very coldest winds are from around the 24th to months end…the mid to southerly latitudes of the UK are much more likely to see heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions from around the 3rd through to around the 11th, with the 25th to the end of the month also showing similar, if not worse, conditions for the same UK latitudes…the coldest conditions for the northern half of the UK are more likely to occur from around the 15th through to the 23rd…………………Christmas day 2013 shows more promise for being “white” from the Newcastle to the Hull latitudes, although what the south may miss on Christmas day will be more than made up for during the first 6 days or so in January 2014.
January 2014 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, January 2014, much like January 2013, has huge potential as being one of the coldest and snowiest Januaries for possibly several hundred years…the first 9 days will be extremely cold, as will be the periods from around the 12th to 17th and the 28th to 31st…much like December 2013, the probability for the snowiest mid to southern areas of the UK are at the beginning and the latter parts of January 2014…mid to southern areas will very probably see severe cold, windy and blizzard conditions from the 1st to around the 9th with the second spell of severe conditions starting around the 24th and progressively becoming worse towards the end of the month, with southerly areas seeing the worst of the conditions as from the 27th to months end…the coldest period for the northern half of the UK will very probably be from around the through to around the 18th…although heavy snow and severe cold can be expected anywhere throughout the UK in January 2014, I fully expect that the very severest conditions will be seen over the first 9 days or so, then from the 24th to months end.
February 2014 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, February 2014 looks set to be another record breaking month, but unlike January 2014; I fully expect the coldest period of February 2014 to be around mid-month – by far…the first 3 or 4 days in February will probably see the most snow-fall in mid to southern UK latitudes…the northern areas of the UK will become progressively colder as from around the 7th then becoming exceptionally cold on the 15th, then becoming less cold as from around the 17th or 18th through to around the 21st – this period, i.e. from the 7th through to around the 21st - is more likely to see more snow-fall in the northern half of the UK, while the mid to southerly UK latitudes are much more likely to see heavy snow-fall from the 22nd through to months end, with the southerly counties seeing the worst conditions from the 24th to months end.
March 2014 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally; March 2014 appears to be less severe overall in terms of cold and snow as opposed to what I expect to have occurred throughout January and February 2014…the greatest risk of snow for mid to southerly regions of the UK is over the first 2 or 3 days then in the latter part of February 2014, and the northern half of the UK from around the 6th to around the 17th…the greatest risk of heavy snow (sleet or rain) for the mid to lower latitudes of the UK begins on the 23rd then through to months end…southern counties will see the worst conditions as from the 26rd to the 29th, then more mid-latitudes for the final 2 days of March…expect the two windiest periods to be from the 1st to around the 4th, then from around the 14th through to months end
Part B……General Overview / Remarks Concerning the 2012 / 2013 & 2013 / 2014 winters in The UK / World
1……the winters of 2012/2013 & 2013/2014 look set to break cold and snow-fall records in the UK
1A……the winters of 2012/2013 & 2013/2014 look set to break cold and snow-fall records in other areas of the planet……As from November 17th 2012 through to March 31st 2014, the respective northern hemisphere winters will probably be even more severe than the famed winters of 1963 and 1947 in the UK……The whole of the northern hemisphere above the latitudes of 35 degrees north will probably experience two of the most coldest and snowiest winters seen for several hundred years, and possibly as severe as the Little Ice Age – see below……
(Little Ice Age http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age )
1B……November 17th 2012 could see very cold conditions with heavy snow in the mid to northern North American continent, Germany, Poland, Russia, China and Japan
1 C……November 29th 2012, or within 4 days either side, could see very cold conditions and possible snow in New Zealand, Tasmania, Victoria-Australia and Argentina
1 D……January 18th 2013 may see severe cold in the mid to southern USA, France, Hungry, southern Russia and northern China; the coldest period will be from the 9th through to the 24th of January 2013, with temperatures somewhere in the northern hemisphere probably exceeding -45c, and several areas falling to -30c or colder in the countries mentioned above......January 18th may see record cold temperatures in any area of the northern hemisphere above 35 degrees north latitude.
1 E……February 6th to 11th 2013 may see heavy snowfall and temperatures as low as -40c in Scandinavia, Scotland, Canada and northern Russia
1 F……March the 4th to the 11th may see heavy snow. Sleet or rain in latitudes of 30degrees north or higher latitudes
1 G……November 1st to 7th 2013 may see many areas higher than latitude 45 degrees north experience extreme cold, with possible heavy snowfall – especially China, Japan, southern areas of the north American continent and mid to southern Europe.
1 H……December 1st to 7th could see severe cold in all latitudes higher than 50 degrees north
1 I……December 25th 2013 to January 6th 2014 will probably see extreme cold and heavy snowfall in much of the northern hemisphere above latitude 35 degrees north or higher; from December 29th 2013to January 3rd 2014, temperatures in some areas north of 35 degrees north could well be as low as -40 degrees or even lower…this 5 day period could well be one of the coldest periods for several hundred years for many of the countries higher than latitude 35 degrees north
1 J……February 15th 2014 could see extreme cold in all of Europe, Asia and North America.
1 K……May 11th 2013 could see very cold winds and heavy snow in the southern hemisphere
1 L……July 9th 2013 could see very cold winds and heavy snow in the southern hemisphere
1 M……August 26th 2013 could see very cold winds and heavy snow in the southern hemisphere
2……the winter of 2012/2013 could well begin as early as the 7th of November 2012, and heavy snowfall could be seen in southern areas of the UK before November 18th 2012
3……December Thursday 13th 2012 is very likely to see blizzard conditions in southerly areas of the UK, or within 4 days either side of that date
4……January 2013 could see cold and snow reminiscent of the winters of 1963 and 1947 – or even conditions not seen for several hundred years, and there is a strong possibility that January 2013 may break several winter weather records across the UK
5……February 2013 will see severe cold and heavy snowfall, especially from around the 3rd to around the 12th, and especially in southern areas of the UK, although the conditions may not be as severe as January 2013
6……March 2013 will probably see blizzard conditions from the 1st through to around the 12th, and especially in the southern areas of the UK from around the 5th
7……Winter 2013/2014 may well begin as early as October 26th 2013, and almost certainly as from November 1st 2013……November 1st to around the 12th may see very cold blizzard conditions from the north-east of England, then becoming more evident from Hull down to the southern coast-lines as from around the 6th of November.
8……December 2013 will probably begin with heavy snowfall in northern and mid-latitudes of the UK, then southern counties will probably see blizzard conditions from around the 3rd
9……December 2013 will probably see severe cold and blizzard conditions as from around the 24th, with the worst conditions seen around the north-east of England, then becoming more evident in mid to southern counties before the 31st.
10…… January 2014 could see cold and snow reminiscent of the winters of 1963 and 1947 – or even conditions not seen for several hundred years, and there is a strong possibility that January 2014 may break several winter weather records across the UK……severe cold and blizzard conditions are very likely for at least the first 8 days of January 2012, especially throughout all southern areas of the UK
11……February 2014 will be exceptionally cold, especially around the 15th, the coldest condition overall will become evident as from the 8th and continue through to around the 22nd at least, the heaviest snowfall will be seen as from around the 22nd with southerly areas seeing the greater snowfall at this time
12……March 2014 will very likely start with snow, then more snow as from around the 24th to months end with extreme cold and blizzard conditions
Section 2……Possible dates for UK & Planet Earthquake and/or Volcanic activity in 2013
(See NOTE 1 towards the top of the page)
UK (and areas within a 200 mile radius from the UK coastline)
Feb……3……17 to 19
Mar……4……17 to 22
May……2……9 to 15……18……31
Aug……3……14……27 to 31
Sep……12……25 to 28
Oct……11……22 to 27
Nov……10……19 to 26
Dec……9……16 to 20……25
Planet (magnitude of 6.0 or stronger)
Jan……1 to 5……7 to 13……18……21 to 27
Feb……3……6 to 10……16 to 23
Mar……3 to 8……17 to 22……28 (NOTE 2…the 17 to 22 period could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Apr……1 to 5……14 to 19……25 to 30
May……2……9 to 19……25 to 31 (NOTE 3…the 9 to 19 & the 25 to 31 periods could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Jun……7 to 13……16……20 to 26……30 (NOTE 4…the 7 to 13 & the 21 to 26 periods could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Jul……4 to 10……15 to 24……29 (NOTE 5…the 4 to 10 & the 15 to 24 periods could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Aug……2 to 7……14 to 21……27 to 31
Sep……2 to 6……11 to 16……25 to 30 (NOTE 6…the 11 to 16 & the 25 to 30 periods could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Oct……8 to 13……18……22 to 28 (NOTE 7…the 8 to 13 & the 22 to 28 periods could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Nov……3……6 to 12……17 to 26
Dec……2 to 10……16 to 26 (NOTE 8…the 16 to 26 period could produce massive quake and/or volcanic activity)
Section 3…… Some recent extracts from the tpuc forum
As seen on page 89 http://www.tpuc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16873&start=880
For what it’s worth………………..
Thursday January 26th 2012………………………………FOR THE RECORD (and for the critics !!!) WINTER 2012 / 2013
My snow & cold forecast for November & December 2011 for the UK was shocking, and that’s putting it politely, although several parts of my forecast for other parts of the planet have been ok thus far…………
Being a Firtreeonian (just invented the word) I take a certain degree of pride in predicting the weather, as do all Firtreeonians, consequently I’ve been looking through my original notes for winter 2011 / 2012 over the last few days to try find where I went wrong……Now I know where I’ve slipped up, and without giving too many of my secrets away I will say that the reason for my failure to predict the milder, as opposed to the colder conditions that I actually predicted for Nov – Dec & the first two weeks of January, has everything to do with the relationship of the Perigee Moon with the Full Moon for those periods…….This is the first time that I’ve made this particular mistake in all of the years that I’ve been predicting weather, and I don’t intend making the same mistake again, but I’m not using this as an excuse, I’m simply pointing out that I’ve found where I went wrong…….What really has bugged me is that my relatively accurate weather predictions over the years have now been clouded by my own thoughtlessness over the last 3 months…but I fully intend to make sure that I don’t make this mistake again – I’ll probably still make mistakes in my weather predictions, but they certainly won’t be connected to the relationship between Perigee & Full Moon
In yesterday’s post I mentioned that I’ll be posting my 2013 weather/geophysical predictions sometime over the next few weeks.
Considering my mistake with the Perigee & Full Moon I’ve triple checked my winter 2012 / 2013 (into 2014) weather predictions, and what I will say right now is the 2012 / 2013 (into 2014) winter looks set to be very severe (see 19 below – from June 11th 2008) – but more on that over the following days or weeks.
Now back to the immediate future…
Phrases used to abound in Firtree, especially phrases concerning the weather…phrases such as “bloody hell! its card tonight ard lad but just wait till two weeks’ time it’ll be (the snow) 6ft above yon rams back……. (Translated: “bloody hell its cold tonight old boy, but just wait until two weeks’ time – the snow will be 6ft deeper than the top of that male sheep back over there”)
February, as far as this aging Firtreeonian is concerned, is going to be indelibly etched in people’s memories for decades to come.
“It’s going to be bloody card ard lad”
…………………………………………………………………………………Richard Crabtree Thursday January 26th 2012
Section 4…… All Moon Phases and Declinations with times and latitudes etc. for 2013 & January, February and March 2014 - and all major planetary alignments for 2013
James Madden (UK Long Range Forecaster)Published: Tuesday 22nd May 2012 (09:41) BST
I strongly emphasised on the strong winds throughout the winter period of 2011/12 in August, before any other suggestions from any other forecaster. I also suggest that unusually strong winds will again be problematic at times during the upcoming autumn/winter period too.
As for next winter, the Met Office representation/scientist who stated “we are currently expecting a series of milder winters” will be incorrect about the upcoming 2012/2013 winter (Aired BBC 2 - 6th November 2011).
I also expect that the “series of milder winters” statement was made due to the unexpected rise in solar activity during the late part of 2011, and the expected rises being forecast by other professional bodies for the future (when I have consistently argued otherwise).
I expect large parts of this winter to be very cold and exceptionally snowy in comparison to last year (forecasting confidence is quite high). I also expect these conditions to arrive earlier, rather than later this winter. There may even be the potential for some of the coldest/snowiest conditions in at least a century at times within the upcoming winter. More detailed information to follow on this shortly in the UK winter 2012-13 forecast/updates.
Start of meteorological summer – June 2012
The start of the meteorological summer will bring a wide variation of unsettled weather types across the country. June will also be hampered by periods of cool and wet weather across many parts, with a noticeable reduction in temperatures for the time of the year in places. Some of these showers will also turn particularly heavy and thundery in places, with the potential for some further wintry showers of hail, sleet and snow in places (especially across higher ground in parts to the north– in what will be officially summer). The unsettled weather will also be accompanied by some very strong winds at times throughout June too.
Any periods of prolonged warmer and settled weather are relatively slim throughout June. However, one or two widespread warm are sunny periods are likely to develop, but I expect these to be very brief in nature. The best of any drier and brighter weather to be had throughout the month, will more than likely feature in Scotland and some parts of the north. Elsewhere, is likely to experience a generally unsettled and very wet theme throughout June as a whole.
Temperatures as a whole are also likely to be near or below-average for June. However, I expect the Central England Temperature to come in at below-average for June (the oldest recorded temperature dataset in the world – over 350 years old).
(Original summer 2012 forecast was issued nearly three months ago below)
I'm taking some short leave to spend some much-needed time with my family, whilst also conducting some important weather-related research. In the meantime, you can still check the latest short-range weather forecasts for your region, that are continually updated at regular intervals throughout each day.
Make the best of the more settled and warmer weather at present.
UP-DATED Saturday July 21st 2012 - see below
There’s a whole lot of cold water off the western coast of the United States and Europe, even off Africa’s western coast.
http://iceagenow.info/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/sst_anom_19Jul2012.gif (image dated July 19th 2012)
Severe UK / northern-hemisphere winter 2012 / 2013 ?
No more ‘horror winters’ for Europe – not for several years ahead – and indeed also not this year
Extremely cold winters for Europe persisting for several months are very rare. The last one to fit the definition occurred in 1963, almost half a century ago. Still many weather forecasters and media seem inclined (as again happened this year) to report on pending ‘horror winters’ – often without presenting much more than an animated air pressure chart to show how it would appear, and little or no published background information as to why it would happen.
As such winters are extremely rare, but theoretically possible; one could argue there is a fair chance for such predictions to become reality. But, thanks to recent advances in climate science, no more.
New insights* have led to improved predictability of a few key factors. Judging by these critical indicators at least the European winters of 2011-2012, 2012-2013, 2013-2014, 2014-2015 will have some normal climatic variation, but will not present persistent temperatures significantly below average – winters that keep the deep freeze on for several months.
Therefore it seems it would be a good thing to help end the horror winter hype – for now – and probably for some time longer as well.
Why no horror winters: (1) the not-stopping Gulf Stream, (2) the non-existent solar minimum, (3) the clearly observed rising temperature trend
All factors that forecasters could – theoretically – base extreme cold winter scenarios on in fact point to the opposite direction, rather favouring (within normal variability range) mild and wet Atlantic winters – like the current European winter.
Instead of a solar minimum [or even a proclaimed ‘new’ Maunder Minimum] ongoing NASA observations show we’ve already entered a normal new solar maximum that is forecast to stay until somewhere around 2017. This decreases the chance of high pressure blockades and the inflow of cold air from Arctic regions and Siberia.
As can be read in our European winter outlook of November 10 2011 [which clearly turns out] the increased number of sunspots (as indicator of increased solar radiation) influences air patterns in the higher atmosphere. As a consequence [correlation shown for instance in Nature Geoscience publication by the UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Nov 2011] the Arctic Oscillation (AO) is (somewhat) more inclined towards a positive phase [which is why we forecast that during the 2011-2012 winter the US would experience fewer snowstorm outbreaks than in years before - as is indeed clearly the case] and (a stronger correlation) the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also tends towards a positive phase.
Europe therefore has a smaller chance for the formation of high pressure blockades over Scotland or Scandinavia – scenarios with respectively a direct influx of cold Arctic air and cold continental air, from the Russian Arctic or Siberia.
Instead depressions persist around Iceland and follow easterly trajectories across northern Europe. There is a semi-permanent west circulation with mild Atlantic air and episodes of high precipitation in the form of rain.
What is a real horror winter: the Little Ice Age – or the Younger Dryas?
Although a repetition of the Maunder Minimum, reminding of the considerably colder European winters during the Little Ice Age does theoretically seem a good candidate* to enable ‘horror winters’ – one other local climatic driver is more potent.
[*) Not all scientists agree a strong solar minimum caused the Little Ice Age. A 2011 publication in Geophysical Research Letters argues total solar irradiance during a persistent minimum does not sufficiently decline to explain significant cooling.]
That other candidate is the Gulf Stream, the northward ocean current that carries tropical warm waters across the surface of the ocean all the way to the North Atlantic and thereby also influences sea surface temperatures in European coastal waters.
In the North Atlantic the water cools and sinks to the ocean floor as a driver to the planetary thermohaline circulation that connects the 4 major oceans (excluding the Arctic Ocean). This process of warm water transport to the north, sinking and cool water transport back south over the ocean floor is also referred to as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – which is a better physical description.
In a theorised scenario in which the AMOC would halt or slow down considerably the Gulf Stream would no longer transport heat towards Western Europe. As a consequence especially the winters would become much colder – ice age cold. That is what paleoclimatologists tell us, because that is what they think happened –suddenly– at the onset of the Younger Dryas – a rebound of ice age conditions some 12,000 years ago. [Again however research from 2011 undermines something of the hypothesis – as we may have lost our explanation as to why the Gulf Stream would have stopped.]
Whether or not we can find evidence of a stopped AMOC in the paleoclimatic record is in fact irrelevant. Climate models show Europe would indeed be much colder without the Gulf Stream. We can therefore focus on whether it will stop – and the answer is no.
First of all there is some research from 2011 indicating greater AMOC stability than previously thought, as for instance a new overturning site has been discovered – and there are not yet any monitored problems with salt content of boundary waters.
But if you want to us to be more precise: it will at least not happen before the year 2015. This insight we owe to climate researchers of the German Max Planck Institute for Meteorology who proudly announced in their November 2011 publication in Science that they have devised an AMOC ocean circulation model with great reliability (it neatly passes hindcast – or ‘retrospective forecast’ – skill tests for a 4-year period) with a Gulf Stream reference point at 26.5°N.
This is not only good news for seasonal forecasters as they now have an extra tool in their boxes trying to predict Atlantic hurricane seasons, Sahel droughts, or European weather patterns, but also shows a nice and quiet forecast period ahead. In fact, the German model shows over the next couple of years the AMOC will be somewhat more stable than it has been over the last couple of years – and these went without major dips in Gulf Stream velocity – and as you can remember (although December months have been cold thanks to the then solar minimum) without horror winters.
A European horror winter in 2008 would have had to try 1 degree Celsius harder than one in 1990
If we look beyond the 4 to 6 year predictability range for AMOC and for solar activity there is yet another important climatic indicator that points away from European horror winter scenarios – that is becoming of increasing and indeed measurable influence: the warming temperature trend.
Just three days ago researchers of France’s National Centre for Scientific Research (CNRS) stated in a Nature Climate Change publication that the European average warming between 1990 and 2008 has been as high as 1 degree Celsius – which means the European warming is happening 2-3 times as fast as the world average land temperature rise.
And when you look at season long temperature anomalies a one degree rise can mean the difference between an expectionally cold winter – and a winter like that of 2009-2010 – some snow, some ice, some thaw, nothing special – nothing like 1963.
© Rolf Schuttenhelm | www.bitsofscience.org
Saturday September 29th 2012 …Data and predictions for October (November and December) 2012….BST ends October 28th 2am
As seen on the Tpuc Forum on Saturday September 29th 2012 http://tpuc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16873&p=312714#p312714
And at Snow Watch UK http://www.snow-watch.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=1347&start=60
Any predictions/forecasts in the following article could turn out to be incorrect……these are my observations/suggestions only.
(AN ARTICLE By Nathan Rao of the Express dated today – Saturday September 29th 2012 – can be seen at the end of this article)
Before the article proper…
Eruption Around 1577 / CME heading this way….
Another eruption, this time a long duration C3.7 event took place around region 1577 at 23:55 UTC on Thursday evening, (00-55amBST Friday morning)
A bright and Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was produced and could reach our planet today, September 29th, or tomorrow September 30th.
Geomagnetic Storming will be possible once the plasma cloud sweeps past our planet and this could lead to visible Aurora at high latitudes.
Expect a substantial increase in geophysical and meteorological phenomena across the planet over the next 12 days.
This increase in the phenomena mentioned will be partly due to the CME “Earth impact” and the Moon / Planetary phases/alignments for the first 10days of October 2012 seen further below in this article.
Expect to experience or hear/read about one, some or all of the following (disturbed/increased activity) phenomena - across the planet - over the next 12 days or so………
………….Earthquakes – volcanic eruptions – extra magma flow/volume – very strong winds/gales/tornadoes/hurricanes/ - land slips/landslides – sink holes – avalanches – extra snow/sleet/hail/rain fall / electrical - lightening – thunder storms / – droughts – flooding / tsunamis – disturbances to the magnetosphere/geomagnetism – telluric currents (electrical current fields of planet Earth) – plant growth – viral and bacterial conditions – changes to physiological and psychological / neurological conditions of all animal life
One particular area showing a risk of enhanced phenomena over the following 6 days, as seen above, is the following area……
Latitudes 50 degrees north to 50 degrees south……and……Longitude 90 degrees to 240 degrees east
Quakes of 6magnitudes plus and volcanic eruptions (at least 1, but probably several quakes/volcanic events) are very possible within the coordinates and the time-frame given above
(My original Oct – Nov – Dec 2012 weather predictions from December 1st 2011 can be seen at the bottom of this article https://sites.google.com/site/crabtreescompendiumofesoterica/predictions-for-2012-dated-thursday-december-1st-2011/2013-weather-geophysical-predictions …… Also seen on the TPUC Forum on Sun Jan 29, 2012 8:31 am - page 89 – at the following link http://www.tpuc.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=6&t=16873&start=880 )
Met Office 3 –month Outlook - period October to December 2012 – dated September 21st 2012
Extracts from the Met Office link above……
Indications are that October will be slightly colder than the 1981-2010 UK mean…
We expect that the current weak El Niño conditions in the
Arctic sea ice is at its lowest recorded extent, and whilst this could play
Comments regarding October 2012 not seen elsewhere in any of my forecasts/predictions…
1…As seen in my October forecast dated Sun Jan 29, 2012 (see above / see further below) I’m expecting a general cooling to occur across the UK as from October 8th……Today, September 29th 2012, I’m also suggesting that the northern hemisphere above latitude 37 degrees may see wintery precipitation – snow, sleet or hail – on or within 3 days – either side - of Saturday October 4th……should snow fall on the 6th, then there is the likelihood that it will continue to fall until the 9th or 10th……any precipitation around this period will be more likely to fall between noon and 9pm……this situation would also apply to areas of the UK of course
2…New Zealand and/or Southern Australia and/or Tasmania and/or South Africa and/or Chile and/or Argentina may well experience snow-fall on or around October 23rd.24th, 25th or 26th
3…October 25th in the northern hemisphere could well bring day-time snow-fall and possible blizzards to various areas.
4...October 5th, 6th and 7th could well bring sub-zero temperatures of minus 2c or lower to Scotland’s Highlands and England’s Pennines – from the Peak District in Derbyshire northward
5…October 18th is likely to be quite windy (or gales or hurricane force winds) in areas of both hemispheres
6…As can see in my original October 2012 weather forecast/prediction published on December 1st 2011, I’m fully expecting October 2012 to be much colder than the October of 2011……October 2012 could see the beginning of a very early winter 2012/2013 in various areas of the northern hemisphere – including areas of the UK
7…The first snow of the winter of 2012/2013 could well be seen in the UK before Saturday October 4th – see 1 further above – or very soon after.
8…High pressure (anticyclone )systems are likely to become evident at latitudes 60 to 70 degrees north, directly north-west, north or north-east of the UK on or within 3 days either side of October 6th and November 2nd 2012
V…… 04:23 GMT, Saturday, 29 September 2012 Weather forecast for the UK
Heat Index & Wind Chill Temperature Calculator http://www.easysurf.cc/cnver16.htm
Wind Chill Calculator http://www.csgnetwork.com/windchillcalc.html
Weather History http://www.wunderground.com/history/air%20...%20atename=NA
All data – as seen below – taken from my……Predictions for 2012 – Dated Thursday December 1st 2011
Planetary / Moon etc. data for September 2012 - as seen at this link ……Predictions for 2012 – Dated Thursday December 1st 2011
2012 – Some dates/periods where Solar activity could escalate producing CMEs - X or M class flares – ionised wind streams from coronal-hole formations – large magnetic filaments and / or exploding magnetic filaments and various, so-called, “anomalies” ………………..NOTE 1 – the predictions for the phenomena seen above to occur at the suggested dates / time periods are constructed by my past observations of the timing of these types of solar phenomena over several years………………..NOTE 2 – when I give a time period allow a margin of error 4 days before and 4 days after the time period ends for the phenomena to occur…when I give a specific date, allow 4 days either side of the specific date given for the phenomena to occur……………..NOTE 3 – solar phenomena could, of course, occur on any dates not shown here.
NOTE 3……Should solar activity actually increase in 2012 on the dates or time periods seen above, then there will also be a corresponding increase in the activity in all or some of the phenomena – as seen below – within 4 days.
Oct…4th to 9th……17th……22nd
Expect to experience or hear/read about one, some or all of the following (disturbed/increased activity) phenomena within 4 days………Earthquakes – volcanic eruptions – extra magma flow/volume – very strong winds/gales/tornadoes/hurricanes/ - land slips/landslides – sink holes – avalanches – extra snow/sleet/hail/rain fall / electrical - lightening – thunder storms / – droughts – flooding / tsunamis – disturbances to the magnetosphere/geomagnetism – telluric currents (electrical current fields of planet Earth) – plant growth – viral and bacterial conditions – changes to physiological and psychological / neurological conditions of all animal life
Some notable planetary alignments for 2012 - Explanation of the following section…
(lowercase text) sun means Sun……mer means Mercury…ven means Venus…ear means Earth…mar means Mars…jup means Jupiter……sat or s means Saturn……ura or u means Uranus……nep means Neptune……plu means Pluto….m means Moon
(Uppercase text) C means conjunction……O means opposition……S means square…….T means trine
Example……sunOplu means that the Sun is at opposition to Pluto (prefixed with month’s day number)
Oct……3 venOnep……5 merCsat & merTnep……7 mSu……8 marSnep……9 mSs & sunTjup & venTplu……11 satTnep……15 marTura……16 venSjup……20 mSu……22 mSs & earSmer……23 sunTnep……25 sunCsat……28 marOjup……29 merSnep
The Moons positions - phases & declinations etc. – in relation to Earth for 2012
Explanation as to how to read this section (NOTE…occasionally more than one particular aspect of a particular Moon phenomena may occur in any given month…for example, the may be 2 Apogees in one calendar month and so on)
A means Apogee, or the Furthest away that the Moon is from Earth for the month……P means Perigee, or the closest that the Moon is to Earth for the month……E means the day the Moon crosses the equator (heading north or south, depending from which hemisphere that it is moving away from)……N means the day that the Moon is at its northernmost point for the month (northern-declination)……S means the day that the Moon is at its southernmost point for the month (southern-declination)……LQ means the day the Moon reaches its Last Quarter phase……FQ means the day the Moon reaches its First Quarter phase……NNN means the day that the Moon becomes “New”……FFF means the day that the Moon becomes “Full”
Oct…5 A……6 N……8 LQ……13 E……15 NNN……17 P......19 S……22 FQ……25 E……29 FFF
NOTE – because of time-zone differences and various other factors including the geometry of the local coastline, and exactly where the Sun and Moon are located., various countries will experience high or low tides just before or just after the dates given for the UK – possibly up to 24 hours.
Oct…..High Tides – 2nd & 17th & 31st …….Low Tides – 10th & 24th …in theory Oct 17th should be the highest tide of 2012
“Beware Periods” (BP) for 2012 are periods or individual days that my method of forecasting indicates to me that one or several events of the following nature may occur: ......Earthquakes......Enhanced Volcanic Activity......Unusual or extreme Weather Phenomena......Unusual or Extreme Solar Activity......Unusual or Extreme Cosmic Activity......Enhancement of psychological, viral, bacterial, blood thickening & other heart/blood related disorders......Possible beginning or escalation of war-like actions, rioting, civil unrest, violent tendencies & general crime.
Oct…2nd to 10th then 18th to 31st
Both hemispheres……Likeliest periods for electrical storms – thunder/lightning/hail – throughout 2012
Oct…7th to 16th
Some likely unsettled (general wind/precipitation as opposed to calm and sunny) weather periods for 2012 – see below………
Oct…7th to 20th
Some likely windy / cooler & windy or cold & windy weather periods for 2012 – see below………………………
Oct…13th to 18th……21st to 27th
Some likely cooler, cold or very cold periods for 2012 – see below………………………
Oct…5th to 9th……15th……21st to 26th
(1)…UK Earthquakes and/or volcanic activity for 2012:…… dates and/or time periods that I believe that the UK and the surrounding areas, i.e., within 200 miles from the coastline of the UK, could experience quake and/or volcanic activity………………………..The activity to occur on the day, date or time period given, or within 2 days either side of the day, date or time period given
2012 Earthquake magnitude 6.0 or greater events and/or Volcanic eruptions – or an increase in volcanic activity – to occur on the date given, or within 2 days either side of the date given…Earthquakes and/or Volcanic activity could of course occur on any date not shown here (At least one earthquake will happen on or around the dates given)
October to December 2012 suggested weather - Winters of 2012/2013…2013/2014 & 2013 UK / Planet Seismic and Volcanism Predictions
October 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, October 2012 will be much colder than the October of 2011… a general cooling as from Sat 8th (although slightly milder temperatures will be more apparent from the 19ththrough to around the 29th) with the most unsettled (wind / rain / snow) part of the month from the 8th through to the end of the month, although the 22nd to the 28th may be the most settled of an otherwise generally unsettled period in October…an increase in wind from around the 13th to around the 20th……south to south-westerly winds from the 19th then veering more west to north-westerly towards the end of October…northerly, north-westerly or north-easterly winds are more likely from the 4th to the 13th…the coldest mornings and/or days are likely on the 5th to the 9th, then the 15thto 18th, then the 22nd and the 29th….weather conditions on the 6th will likely prevail to around the 7th or 8th…frosts are more likely around the 6th, 8th, 15th then around the 29th.
November 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, November 2012 will be noticeably much colder than the November of 2011…the coldest periods are most likely from the 1st to the 14th then the 27thto the 30th …the most unsettled period (rain / sleet / snow) will be from the 7th through to around the 25th…Saturday the 16thmay well be exceptionally cold, and there is a good probability that blizzard conditions may occur along the eastern flank of the UK, the south and / or south-easterly counties of England could well get the worst of any blizzard conditions should this snow event actually occur at this time…Generally, the November of 2012 could well turn out colder, and with more snow, than the November of 2010 –especially in the mid to southern counties of England, and November 2012 could well be colder than December 2010, especially from around November 10ththrough to around the 27th.
December 2012 -some suggested weather scenarios for the UK……Generally, December 2012 will be much colder, and with the potential for much more snow, than the December of 2011 or the December of 2010…the coldest periods are likely to occur around the 6th, the 12th, the 20th and the 25th to the 31st…the period that will produce more snow will be from the 6th through to around the 20th, with the 6th to the 16thprobably being the period when the greatest snow events will probably occur in December 2012…very windy conditions should be expected from the 11ththrough to around the 19th…the area from Hull down to the south coast of England may well experience heavy snow and blizzard conditions from around the 11th through to around the 19th, the westerly and northerly areas of the UK may be more likely to see heavy snow fall from around the 19th through to the 31st although all areas of the UK may well experience sever cold and snow as from the 6th through to months end
Richard Crabtree Saturday September 29th 2012
ARCTIC BLAST ON THE WAY - Saturday September 29, 2012 By Nathan Rao
BRITAIN will be battered by an Arctic blast from Iceland next week – bringing snow, ice, flooding and bitter gales.
Forecasters last night warned the mercury will plummet to near freezing in many areas with daytime temperatures 15C lower than this time last year.
The Scottish Highlands and parts of northern England could see their first dusting of snow, while the entire country faces cold conditions and possible frosts.
Forecasters said the bitter weather is likely to remain for the next few weeks with significant snow by the middle of the month.
The wintry forecast comes as the country recovers from a week of torrential downpours which have sparked devastating floods.
More than two months’ worth of rain has fallen in parts causing rivers to burst banks and forcing hundreds of families from their homes.
Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: “We could well see some bitter cold temperatures from Sunday.
“We are looking at a cold pool of air sweeping in from the north sending temperatures plunging.”
Leon Brown, meteorologist for The Weather Channel, said Hurricane Nadine, currently over the Atlantic Ocean, is primed to hit the UK next week.
He said the hurricane – downgraded to a tropical storm two weeks ago – will trigger torrential downpours in the North. The remnants of the storm, dubbed “Child of Nadine” triggered heavy rain and strong winds earlier in the month.
Mr Brown said: “For the longer range forecast we are watching where tropical storm Nadine moves.
“The storm is near hurricane strength again and remains slow moving about 650 miles south-west of the Azores.
“Next week the storm will eventually get caught in the flow ahead of a trough and move north-east.
“The remains may well move up to the west of the UK by the end of next week and potentially bring some very wet weather across north-west Britain.” The North will be worst hit with the South milder, although colder than normal for the time of year.
Plummeting temperatures overnight will see much of the country wake up to cold mornings next week.
During the daytime, temperatures will struggle to get into double figures in many areas of the country, with brisk winds making it feel much colder.
In the North the mercury is likely to get as low as 2C while it will be slightly warmer in the South at 4C.
A year ago this weekend, Britain was hotter than the Sahara as record temperatures for the end of September hit 29.9C.
by esoteric » Mon Feb 04, 2013 9:25 pm
Additional Seismic Predictions for 2013…..
(additional to, or as a compliment to, all of my previous seismic predictions for 2013)
One, some or all of the following seismic events to occur globally or within the UK or within 500 miles of the UK…
…quake in UK or within 500 miles of the UK
…volcanic eruption, in UK or within 500 miles of the UK
…volcanic eruption somewhere on Earth
…magnitude 6 or 6 plus quake somewhere on Earth
One, some or all of the following seismic events to occur globally or within the UK or within 500 miles of the UK….on or within 2 days of the following dates
…Feb 6 & 21 & 28
…May 13 & 18 & 26
…Jun 3 & 7 & 26
…Jul 18/19 & 26
…Aug 25 & 27
…Oct 1 & 10 & 20 & 25
…Nov 9 & 11 & 24
Crabtree Monday February 4th 2013 at 9-25pm