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The trajectory of reduction required in the developed nations is exemplified by the ambitions of the UK. The Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC, now rolled into the Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy or BEIS) assessed the trajectory to be taken by the UK and EU, and summarizes possible trajectories in the graph above*. Notice that all except one of the pathways leads to an 80% reduction in emissions by 2050, the target set by the UK Climate Change Act of 2008 and approved by all of the major parties in Parliament. Notice also that these trajectories decline smoothly year-on year. It is not enough to reach the 80% reduction target suddenly in 2050, because the climate risks depend not only on where we end up in 2050 but how much carbon dioxide is released each year until then. So that is the global climate policy goal, agreed on by all nations who understand the science and take it seriously. That is also the target sought by the CCR in all of the community projects we support. It commits the developed economies to an 80% reduction by 2050, with growth of the emissions in developing economies into the 2030s before they also decline. Past 2050, these targets will reduce the current global emissions by at least half. *See the DECC 2050 Pathways Analysis. |