Recent Essays on Monetary Policy
Remarks on Central Bank Independence , Peterson Institute , October 31, 2025 link
The Composition of the Fed's Balance Sheet and Strategies for a Return to a Bills Only Portfolio, September 2025
Thoughts on The Fed's August 2025 Framework Revisions, Pimco Economic and Market Commentary , August 22, 2025 link
The Best Check on Fed Politicization is Fear of Being Judged a Failure, The Economist by Invitation , June 29th 2025 link
Post-Pandemic Global Inflation, Disinflation, and Central Bank Policy Responses, Nber Working Paper No, 33885, June 2025 link
The Taylor Rule is Almost Everywhere in Monetary Economics, presented at May 2025 Hoover Monetary Policy Conference, link
The Real Lessons from the Plaza and Louvre Accords , Financial Times, April 29th, 2025 link
Markets may be Underestimating how much Inflation will fall this Year, Financial Times February 12, 2025 link
Emergency Lending by the Federal Reserve (with Kate Judge) February 2025, forthcoming, University of Chicago Legal Forum link
Where Interest Rates are Heading? Financial Times October 14th, 2024 link
A Global Perspective on Post Pandemic Inflation and Its Retreat, remarks at the NBER Conference on "Monetary Policy in the Covid Era" May17, 2024; published under the same title in the Journal of Monetary Economics, November 2024 link pdf
Will the True Term Premium Please Stand Up? PIMCO Market Commentary April 29th 2024 link
The Anatomy of the Global Inflation Spike in Project Syndicate October 4, 2023 link
US Monetary Policy and The Return to Price Stability NBER Working Paper 31520 August 2023; published under the same title in the International Journal of Central Banking , April 2024 Nber link IJCB link
The Taylor Rule at 30 Presented at Hoover Monetary Policy Conference May 2023 link
The Fed May not Get Inflation down to 2% By Invitation in the Economist April 4, 2023 link