Epi-economics

Syllabus:

1) Modèles épidémiologiques et estimations des paramètres.

2) Arbitrage cout-bénéfice des efforts de distanciation sociale au niveau individuel.

3) Arbitrage cout-bénéfice des efforts de distanciation sociale au niveau gouvernement.

4) Politique optimale lorsque les arbitrages se font au niveau individuel et au niveau du gouvernement.

5) Evaluation économétrique des politiques sanitaires.

Les diapositives (mises à jour) sont disponibles ici.

Deux numéros spéciaux sur ce thème : Journal of Mathematical economics et Journal of Econometrics

Biblio:

• Acemoglu, D., Chernozhukov, V., Werning, I., & Whinston, M. D. (2020). Optimal targeted lockdowns in a multi-group SIR model. NBER Working Paper, 27102.

• Baril-Tremblay D., Marlats C., Ménager L. (2021), Self-isolation, Journal of Mathematical economics.

• Bhattacharya, J., Chakraborty S., Yu X. (2021) A rational-choice model of Covid-19 transmission with endogenous quarantining and two-sided prevention, Journal of Mathematical Economics.

• Brotherhood, L., Kircher, P., Santos, C., Tertilt, M. (2020). An economic model of the Covid-19 epidemic: The importance of testing and age-specic policies.

• Caulkins J., Grass D., Feichtinger G., Hartl R., ... Wrzaczek S., The optimal lockdown intensity for COVID-19, Journal of Mathematical Economics.

• Chernozhukov V., Kasahara H., Schrimpf P., Causal impact of masks, policies, behavior on early covid-19 pandemic in the U.S., journal of econometrics, Pages 23-62

• Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S., Trabandt, M. (2020). The Macroeconomics of Testing and Quarantining (No. w27104). National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Ellison G., Implications of Heterogeneous SIR Models for Analyses of Covid-19 June 2020, NBER Working Paper 27373

• Farboodi, M., Jarosch, G., Shimer, R. (2020). Internal and external eects of social distancing in a pandemic (No. w27059). National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Ferguson, N., Laydon, D., Nedjati-Gilani, G., Imai, N., Ainslie, K., Baguelin, M., ... & Dighe, A. (2020). Report 9: Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. Imperial College London, 10, 77482.

• Giannitsarou C., Kissler S., Toxvaerd F., Waning Immunity and the Second Wave: Some Projections for SARS-CoV-2 forthcoming in American Economic Review: Insights

• Guimarães, L, Antibody tests: They are more important than we thought, (2021), Journal of Mathematical economics.

• Hortaçsu A., Liu J., Schwieg T., Estimating the fraction of unreported infections in epidemics with a known epicenter: An application to COVID-19, journal of econometrics, Pages 106-129

• Korolev I., Identification and estimation of the SEIRD epidemic model for COVID-19, Journal of econometrics, Pages 63-85

• Liu L., Moon H., Schorfheide F. Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections, Journal of econometrics, pp2-22

• Kruse, T., Strack, P. (2020). Optimal control of an epidemic through social distancing, mimeo.

• Mizumoto, K., Kagaya, K., Zarebski, A., & Chowell, G. (2020). Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020. Eurosurveillance, 25(10), 2000180.

• Nishiura, H., Kobayashi, T., Miyama, T., Suzuki, A., Jung, S. M., Hayashi, K., ... & Linton, N. M. (2020). Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19). International journal of Infectious Diseases, 94, 154.

• Pollán, M., Pérez-Gómez, B., Pastor-Barriuso, R., Oteo, J., Hernán, M. A., Pérez- Olmeda, M., ... &Molina, M. (2020). Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study. The Lancet, 396(10250), 535-544.

• Remuzzi, A., & Remuzzi, G. (2020). COVID-19 and Italy: what next?. The Lancet.

• Toxvaerd, F. (2020). Equilibrium Social Distancing, mimeo

Et aussi (papiers non cités directement dans le cours):

• Avery C., Bossert W., Clark A., Ellison G., Fisher Ellison S. (2020), Policy implications of models of the spread of coronavirus: Perspectives and opportunities for economists in Covid Economics 12 (1), 21-68

• Alvarez, F. E., Argente, D., Lippi, F. (2020). A simple planning problem for covid-19 lockdown (No. w26981). National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Bairoliya, N., Imrohoroglu, A. (2020). Macroeconomic Consequences of Stay-At-Home Policies During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Covid Economics, 13, 71-90.

• Britton T., Ball F., Trapman P., (2020). A mathematical model reveals the influence of population heterogeneity on herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2. Science.

• Fenichel, E. P. (2013). Economic considerations for social distancing and behavioral based policies during an epidemic. Journal of Health Economics, 32(2), 440-451

• Glover, A., Heathcote, J., Krueger, D., Rìos-Rull, J. V. (2020). Health versus wealth: On the distributional eects of controlling a pandemic (No. w27046). National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Jones, C. J., Philippon, T., Venkateswaran, V. (2020). Optimal mitigation policies in a pandemic: Social distancing and working from home (No. w26984). National Bureau of Economic Research.

• Rowthorn, R. and F. Toxvaerd (2020): The Optimal Control of Infectious Diseases via Prevention and Treatment, mimeo.

• Toxvaerd, F. (2019). Rational disinhibition and externalities in prevention. International Economic Review, 60(4), 1737-1755.