Research
Peer-reviewed Publications:
"Corporate Investment and the Real Exchange Rate", with C.Minoiu and J.Ostry, January 2021.
Journal of International Economics, forthcoming. Previous version: IMF Working Paper 17/183.
"Why is labor receiving a smaller share of global income?", with M.Das and Z.Kozcan,
Economic Policy, Vol. 34 (100) October 2019, p. 723-759, Oxford University Press. Previous version: IMF Working Paper 17/169.
Media coverage: VoxEU blog, Bloomberg, Financial Times, The Guardian
"Regional labor market adjustment in the United States: trend and cycle", with D.Furceri and P. Loungani,
Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 99 (2) May 2017, p.243-257, MIT Press.
Media coverage: Financial Times, VoXEu, The New York Times, Christian Science Monitor, The Atlantic.
"Monetary Policy in Low Income Countries in the Face of the Global Crisis: A Structural Analysis", with A. Baldini, A. Berg, J. Benes and R. Portillo,
Pacific Economic Review, 20 (1), pp. 149-192, February 2015, Wiley.
"Foreign labor costs and domestic employment: what are the spillovers?",
Journal of International Economics, Vol. 89 (1), pp. 154-171, January 2013, Elsevier.
"International Spillover of Labour Market Policies",
Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 65(2), pp. 417-446, Oxford University Press, 2013.
“Common stochastic volatility trends in international stock returns” with Jürgen Wolters,
International Review of Financial Analysis 17 (2008), pp. 431-445, Elsevier.
Recent Working Papers:
"The effectiveness of job-retention schemes: COVID-19 evidence from the German states", with S. Aiyar, May 2022, also IMF Working Paper 2021/242 .
Abstract: Kurzarbeit (KA), Germany’s short-time work program, is widely credited with saving jobs and supporting domestic demand during the COVID-19 recession. We quantify the impact by exploiting state-level variation in exposure to the pandemic shock and KA take-up. We construct a shift-share measure of the labor demand shock and instrument KA take-up using the pre-existing, state-specific share of workers eligible for KA. We find, first, that KA was crucial in mitigating unemployment: absent its expansion the unemployment rate would have increased by an additional 3 pp on average at the trough of the recession. Second, KA also bolstered domestic demand: the contraction in consumption could have been 2 to 3 times larger absent the program. Finally, we provide preliminary evidence on the sensitivity of the medium-run reallocation of resources to the prevalence of job-retention schemes during the Global Financial Crisis.
Media coverage: Hutchins Roundup, Eurointelligence, IMFBlog
"Wealth Inequality and Private Savings: the Case of Germany", May 2020, IMF Working Paper No. 20/107
Media coverage: The Economist, The Guardian, The Wall Street Journal, Handelsblatt, Reuters, Süddeutsche Zeitung, FAZ, Die Welt, Focus
Abstract: This paper explores the interaction between corporate ownership concentration and private savings, and by extension, the current account balance in Germany. As high corporate savings largely reflected capital income accruing to wealthy households and increasingly retained in closely-held firms, the buildup of external imbalances in Germany has been accompanied by widening top income inequality, rising private savings and compressed consumption rates. Rising corporate profits in an environment of high business wealth concentration account for 90 percent of the rise in the private savings rate and a third of the increase in the German current account surplus over 1999 - 2016.
"Innovation and Corporate Cash Holding in the Era of Globalization", with J. Ahn and K. Adler, November 2018.
Media coverage: Central Banking
Abstract: We document a broad-based trend in rising cash holding of firms across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, a trend that is most pronounced for firms engaged strongly in R&D activities. Our contributions to the literature are twofold. First, we develop a simple model that brings together the insights from modern trade theory (Melitz, 2003) with those of contract theory in corporate finance (Holmström and Tirole, 1998) to show that increased openness to trade can raise the returns to innovation and the demand for cash holding as firms insure against innovation-induced liquidity shocks. Second, we derive sharp empirical predictions and find supporting evidence for them using firm-level data across major G7 countries during 1995-2014, a period that saw an unprecedented rise in globalization and technological innovation.
"The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends", with C. Maggi, November 2018.
Media coverage: Handelsblatt
Abstract: Using cross-country national accounts and firm-level data, we document a broad-based trend in rising gross saving and net lending of non-financial corporates across major industrialized countries over the last two decades, though most pronounced in countries with persistent current account surpluses. We find that this trend holds consistently across major industries, and is concentrated among large firms, driven by rising profitability, lower financing costs, and reduced tax rates. At the same time, higher gross corporate saving have not supported a commensurate increase in fixed capital investment, but instead led to a build-up of liquid financial assets (cash). The determinants of corporate cash holding and saving are also broad-based across countries, with the growth in assets of large firms, R&D intensity, and lower effective tax rates accounting for most of the increase over the last 15 years.
"Finance and Employment: the Working Capital Channel", with L.Liu, IMF Working Paper 17/189.
Media coverage: BusinessFortNight
Policy Papers and Other Writings:
"COVID-19: How Will European Banks Fare?", with S. Aiyar, A. Jobst, A. Mineshima, S. Mitra, M. Pradhan. Departmental Paper No. 2021/008.
Media coverage: SUERF Policy Brief
"Understanding the downward trend in labor income shares", with M.Das, Z. Koszan, W.Lian, Chapter 3 in World Economic Outlook, April 2017.
Media coverage: Financial Times, The Guardian, Bloomberg, Süddeutsche Zeitung
“Tackling Gender Inequality in Asia: the case of Korea”, with D. Furceri, J. Hwang, M. Kim, Chapter 6 in Women, Work, and Economic Growth: Leveling the Playing Field, edited by K. Kochhar, S. Jain-Chandra, M. Newiak, Washington DC: International Monetary Fund, Fall 2016.
"Where are we headed? Perspectives on Potential Output", with P. Blagrave, D. Furceri, R. Garcia-Saltos, World Economic Outlook Ch 3, April 2015.
Media coverage: Financial Times, The Economist, The Wall Street Journal
"Recent Labor Market Reforms: A Preliminary Assessment", Ch 1 in Spain: Selected Issues, IMF Country Report No. 15/233.
"Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?", with R. Balakrishnan and J.Sole, IMF Working Paper 15/76.
previous version in "United States: Selected Issues", IMF Country Report No. 14/222, July 2014.
Media coverage: The Economist, The Hutchins Roundup
"Strategies for Reforming Korea's Labor Market to Foster Growth", with D. Furceri, J. Hwang, M.Kim, T.Kim, IMF Working Paper 14/137.
Media coverage: Bloomberg Business, South China Morning Post
"The real exchange rate and employment in China", with Ruo Chen, IMF Working Paper 11/148.
Media coverage: The Wall Street Journal
“The Human Cost of Recessions: Assessing It, Reducing It”, with Prakash Loungani, IMF Staff Position Note 10/17, 2010.
“Monetary policy analysis in low-income countries in the face of the global crisis: The case of Zambia”, with Alfredo Baldini, Andrew Berg, Jaromir Benes and Rafael Portillo, IMF Working Paper 12/94.
“The Tragedy of Unemployment”, with Prakash Loungani, Finance & Development, Vol. 47 (4), pp. 22-25, December 2010.
“The Challenges of Growth, Employment and Social Cohesion”, with Prakash Loungani and ILO co-authors, Oslo, September 2010, http://www.osloconference2010.org
Media coverage: The Economist, The New York Times