North America circa 2080 A.D.

North America circa 2080 A.D.

Looking into the future an acute observer would see the eventual geopolitical reconfiguration of North America. Demographic trends already obvious in 2050 will be more pronounced. In the former American Southwest, Latino populations mostly from Northern Mexico will reconstitute themselves into a sovereign state called La República del Norte, with an area of just under one million square miles, a population of one hundred and twenty million (seventy million of which will be Latinos), its capital in Los Angeles, and one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The treaty of reorganization will be the result of a general North American conference in which political boundaries will be redrawn in order to conform with cultural and ethnic realities. Moreover, the prosperity of North America will make such a move seem less threatening and more conducive to business interests generally.

By 2050, geopolitical changes in East Asia will result in the hegemony of China in close alliance with Japan, the Korean Union, the Siberian Republic, and Singapore. The United States will retreat from the East Pacific and concentrate on the Western Hemisphere. Meanwhile, the European Union will grow to include a reduced Russian federation and will find itself opposed by a Pan-Islamic empire in North Africa and the Middle East Fourth World anarchy will continue to spread into parts of Central Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa and areas of Southeast Asia. South America will stabilize under the over-arching authority of a Latin American common market including the Caribbean.

The peaceful independence of Quebec in 2040 will allay fears among the United States elites of an impending economic disaster and pose no security threat to the rest of North America. In fact, an Ontario-based Canada will flourish in a predominately Anglo-phone territory. The western Canadian provinces will gravitate into a loose union with the United States solidifying its hold over Alaska, which will be threatened by the growing Chinese presence in Northeast Asia. Moreover, the annexation of the Canadian West will assuage American resentment over the secession of El Norte. Yet, in reality the loss of the Southwest will increase American security by creating a buffer zone, which will absorb Latino migration into North America. Finally, the American ruling establishment will be forced to acknowledge the failure of its century-long policy of attempting to assimilate the Latino demographic tidal wave by means of a militarized border, oppressive immigration laws, anti-Hispanic cultural legislation, and mass deportations. These measures will increasingly demoralize the United States giving the lie to its reputed democratic values.

At the same time, Latino populations growing in all of America's metropolitan centers will seem to dilute the original Anglo-Saxon and Protestant cultural values of the country in a way African Americans with their English language and Protestant religious culture could never do. In the end, the Anglo-American establishment will accept a Hispanic state in the Southwest and Northern Mexico free from both American and Mexican control. Furthermore, American strategic planners will be loath to include in the United States' social body so large and disgruntled a minority in proximate distance to their place of origin, speaking a foreign language, adherents of a non-Protestant communion, and increasingly in charge of their local governments, legislatures, police, national guard units, churches, and businesses; with the growing Chinese threat in the Pacific, better to ameliorate Norteño nationalism than deal with a potential fifth column. I must emphasize that little violence will precede these events more in the nature of Quebec style mass demonstrations, an intifada-like uprising on university campuses or in economically depressed barrios; perhaps a few incidents of military resistance (Wounded Knee-I974) in response to heavy government pressure, arrests, and deportations – but no civil war or general breakdown will occur. The relatively peaceful disintegration of Soviet rule in Eastern Europe, the Baltic, Central Asia, the Ukraine, and Belarus will serve as a model. China's growing power in the Pacific will make sure the Americans do not overreact to Norteño nationalism.

Mexico, meanwhile, will face a similar dilemma insofar as El Norte's dynamic American-style capitalism, and conservative ranchero-frontier culture will seem at odds with central Mexico's centuries-old tradition of statism, Indigenism, liberal elitism, and public sector economics. Mexico City's ruling elites will most likely prefer to relinquish El Norte rather than be dominated by it as occurred in the early twentieth and twenty-first centuries. A more manageable Mexico will emerge, about the size of France, with a hundred million people, and centered around the core cities of Mexico, Guadalajara, Vera Cruz, Puebla, and Oaxaca; in effect, the re-emergence of Meso-America's old indigenous states – Teotihuacan, the Toltec Empire, and the Mexica-Aztec federation. In the Yucatan, Chiapas, Belize, and Guatemala a Mayan nation seems inevitable, again emphasizing a trend detectable since the late twentieth century for cultural orientation to replace liberalism and ideology as a basis for nation building. The remainder of Central America will re-confederate as in the colonial era (1511-182 1), and early Independence period (1821-1833). The new Central American Confederation will seek membership in an expanded Latin American common market or union inspired by that of Europe.

-Dr. Charles Truxillo

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