Pakistan: Flood 2022 rainfall analysis

Why the 2022 Pakistan Floods Were So Devastating: What We’ve Learned

In 2022, Pakistan experienced one of the worst flooding disasters in its history. At the peak of the crisis, nearly one-third of the country was under water. Thousands of lives were lost, and millions of people were affected through widespread destruction of homes, roads, crops, and livelihoods.

As part of a project funded by the World Bank for the Sindh Irrigation Department—focusing on flood risk assessment and mitigation on the right bank of the Indus River—we conducted a detailed analysis of the monsoon rainfall that led to this catastrophic event. Here are our key findings and why they matter:

Key Findings

🌧️ A Record-Breaking Monsoon
Between May and October 2022, Sindh received about 560 mm of rainfall—three times the long-term average of 182 mm. Most of this rain fell in just a short window from July 5 to August 24, overwhelming rivers, canals, and drainage systems.

⏱️ A Short but Intense Season
The core rainy season, when most of the rainfall typically happens, lasted only 51 days in 2022. Despite being shorter than usual, it was packed with powerful storms. On August 18 and 25, rain peaked at 51 mm and 44 mm respectively. While some past years had heavier single-day downpours, 2022 stood out for the number and intensity of multi-day events.

🌊 Prolonged Downpours, Not Just Cloudbursts
Unlike sudden, short-lived storms, the 2022 rains kept coming for days at a time. Our data shows that 5-day and 10-day rainfall totals were the highest on record, pointing to sustained pressure on flood defenses and water infrastructure.

📈 What the IDF Analysis Shows
We analyzed the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) of the rainfall—which tells us how rare certain rainfall patterns are over different timescales. The results show:

• In southern Sindh, the 2022 rains were not unusual for short bursts (less than 24 hours), but became extremely rare (10–50-year return periods) over longer durations of 4 to 10 days.

• In northern areas like Sibbi and Loralai, the event reached the level of 50- to 100-year extremes over 4 to 14 days.
  
  

What This Means for the Future

The 2022 floods were not just about how much rain fell—but how quickly and persistently it came down. The sheer volume of rainfall in such a short time put enormous strain on infrastructure and made it difficult for water to drain naturally.

What needs to be done?

• Improve early warning and forecasting systems to detect prolonged rainfall events.
  
  

• Plan and invest in basin-wide water management strategies, not just local fixes.
  
  

• Build resilience through better design of canals, embankments, and stormwater systems.
  
  

Understanding the nature of extreme rainfall is no longer a technical exercise—it’s critical for protecting lives and livelihoods. As weather patterns grow more erratic, we must be better prepared to manage the risks they bring.