What is the survival probability of HKD peg?

Note: This figure plots the probability of the HKD peg surviving in 90 days perceived by financial market participants, updated to 1/1/2007 – 7/11/2025.

Source:  Jermann, Wei and Yue (2025) "How Credible is Hong Kong's Currency Peg?" This study develops a tractable asset pricing model for the HKD and estimates the peg's 90-day survival probability using HKD options.