PLEBS - Protesters Lobbying (for) Ethical Badger Sustainability

The formatted MS Excel 2003 file can be downloaded at the lower right-hand corner of this page!

SOME HISTORY ON HOW WE GOT TO THIS POINT

Thursday, 13th March 2014: Badger Cull Backbench Debate: Outcome 219-1 opposing Badger Cull extension.  Data added to PLEBS spreadsheet.

Tuesday, 11th February 2014: Added new column of Ministerial Roles but this just proves that Coalition Ministers all vote FTC.  Lobbying of the top 106-Labour Target Seats is the preferred method now in the run-up to 27th February 2014 Badger Cull Debate in the House of Commons and potential Roll-Out of 5 new Badger Cull Zones for 2014.

Friday, 7th February 2014: Over the past two weeks, there have been three series of updates:

The first was to incorporate data from the Electoral Calculus web site.

The second was to input the Target Seats for all threre Main Parties at the 2015 General Election: Labour Top 106 Conservatives Top 75 Liberals Top 50.  On current Opinion Polling, it is Labour's Top 106 predictions that will determine if they form the Majority Government and they are leading in the Opinion Polls by 6% over the Conservatives and that would translate into a 10% swing at the next General Election (converting to a Labour majority in the region of 116 seats).

The third was to update the EDM661 data that has collected 101 signatures.

Early Day Motion Number 661 (EDM 661) data updated (assuming all MP signatories are ATC).

            Those switching from FTC-to-ATC (6 in total): 3 Conservatives and 4 Liberal Democrat.
            Scientific arguments really are winning this battle! Friday, 24 January 2014: Early Day Motion Number 661 (EDM 661) data updated (assuming all MP signatories are ATC).  96 signatures now!
            Those switching from FTC-to-ATC (6 in total): 3 Conservatives and 3 Liberal Democrat.
            Scientific arguments really are winning this battle!

Monday, 02 December 2013: Early Day Motion Number 661 (EDM 661) data added (assuming all MP signatories are ATC)

EDM661 reads as follows:
http://www.parliament.uk/edm/2013-14/661

PILOT BADGER CULL PARLIAMENTARY ASSESSMENT AND VOTE (No. 2)

"That this House recognises that 145 hon. Members signed Early Day Motion 299 expressing concern over the pilot badger cull; notes that since this EDM was tabled the pilot badger culls have killed fewer badgers than was envisaged and that the cull timetable has been extended; further notes that 10 members of the Royal College of Veterinary Surgeons have written a letter to England's Chief Veterinary Officer suggesting that the extension of the badger cull could result in increased suffering of badgers and place both badgers and cattle in and around the cull zones at greater risk of contracting bovine tuberculosis; further notes that the reduced effectiveness of the cull makes vaccination more cost effective; and calls on the Government to make a statement to the House and bring forward a vote to decide on the most cost effective, humane and efficient way to reduce bovine TB."

Signed by (as of 02 December 2013):

Conservatives: 8; Green: 1; Independent: 1; Labour: 38; LibDem: 7; SDLP: 1 (total to date: 56)

Number of known ATC's that have not signed EDM661 yet:

Conservatives: 13; Labour: 220; LibDem: 13; Respect: 1; SDLP: 2; SNP: 6 (total to date: 255)

Potential number of MP's ATC supporting EDM: 311

Sunday, 11 December 2011: Early announcements from DEFRA made on bovine TB controls through badger culling:
http://www.defra.gov.uk/animal-diseases/a-z/bovine-tb/badgers/culling/

Tuesday, 23 October 2012: Badger cull "postponement" announced:
"Badger cull to be delayed as Tories take another U-turn", Juliette Jowit and Damian Carrington @ The Guardian
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/22/badger-cull-plans-major-setback
DEFRA announce badger cull to continue next year: http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/2012/10/23/badger-cull/

Thursday, 25 October 2012: Backbench Business debate on free-shoot-to-kill trials to cull badgers in West Gloucestershire and West Somerset
Proposed by The Rt. Hon. Caroline Lucas MP, Brighton Pavillion:
"I beg to move,
That this House notes the e-petition on the planned badger cull, which has gathered more than 150,000 signatures; and calls on the Government to stop the cull and implement the more sustainable and humane solution of both a vaccination programme for badgers and cattle, along with improved testing and biosecurity.
"

The entire debate in The House of Commons: http://www.theyworkforyou.com/debates/?id=2012-10-25a.1095.0
The outcome of the vote (also detailed in our spreadsheet): http://www.publicwhip.org.uk/division.php?date=2012-10-25&number=87
Members of the House voted Against The Cull (ATC): 147-28.


OUR KEY OBJECTIVES

1. To finish compiling the spreadsheet of MP's preferences' to DEFRA's proposed free-shoot-to-kill badger cull programme, indicating where MP's are:
ATC (Against The Cull);
FTC (For The Cull);
RTA (Refused To Answer);


2. To complete the lobbying of all MPs in The House of Commons and input the data into the spreadsheet.  This will be done by UK regions in bulk emailing, with telephone calls made to Constituency offices where a response has not been forthcoming;

3. To (hopefully, AND IS LOOKING LIKELY) PROVE that the MAJORITY of MP's in The House of Commons ARE AGAINST THE FREE-SHOOT-TO-KILL POLICY of badgers;

4. Most importantly, we will liaise directly with Team Badger, who are the leading organisation pushing for a swift end to the DEFRA notion that culling of badgers is the ONLY WAY to deal with the spread of bovine tuberculosis (bTB).

THERE ARE ALTERNATIVES
to what The Rt. Hon. Owen Paterson MP at DEFRA is proposing
to deal with the spread of this terrible disease!


5. We will be inviting anyone (and everyone) to input their views on a whole raft of measures to deal with the bovine TB outbreak and hopefully learn how best to implement measures to contain, control and subsequently eliminate, this crippling disease from the United Kingdom.  It has been achieved in New Zealand... and we believe it can be achieved here in the UK.



Excerpt from email: The Shadow Secretary of State for DEFRA,
The Rt. Hon. Mary Creagh MP (Wakefield constituency),
08 November 2012 at 18h47:

"Mary also asked me to thank you and Donna for the spreadsheet you sent through. She found it very interesting and please do keep us informed when you have contacted the remaining 50 MPs as she would be very interested to see the complete set of data."


Recent Developments
We now have the Excel spreadsheet at the bottom of this page entitled: Excel MP's List 2013 ORDERED May 17 2013.xls

You can download it from the arrow key on the FAR BOTTOM RIGHT-HAND-SIDE of the page,

We are looking to recruit volunteers to assist with completing the spreadsheet in terms of MP constituency telephone numbers and emails.  We have our greatest success in detecting ConDem MPs in London and the North-West and the LibDems have voted 3:1 for ATC:FTC, so it is worth completely surveying all LibDems (most are in South-West England and Scotland).

Please contact us at the following email address if you require any information
or can spare some time, no matter how big or small, in meeting our Key Objectives:
TeamPLEBS@yahoo.co.uk

Yours Sincerely,

Dr. Cliff Hodge and Ms. Donna Eberhard (updated 10 Nov 2012)



UPDATE (01 Jun 2013): Up to 8,000 protestors, led by Dr Brian May and Anne Brummer from Team Badger march through London's streets and hand 10 Downing Street the 234,000 signature e-petition.

UPDATE (31 May 2013): Letter sent to The Guardian (and The Observer), The Daily (and Sunday) Telegraph, The Daily (and Sunday) Times, The Independent (on Sunday) for publication.

UPDATE (31 May 2013): Announcement that there will be an Opposition Day debate led by Mary Creagh MP on Wednesday, 05 June 2013,
The wording for the motion reads 'This House believes the badger cull should not go ahead.'
We will be able to check the authenticity of our data-set from the vote and show that Paterson cannot win this debate.

UPDATE (17 May 2013): Letter sent to The Guardian and The Observer for publication:

FOR PUBLICATION IN THE LETTERS’ PAGES

(NO EMBARGO ATTACHED)

 DEFRA WOULD LOSE BADGER CULL VOTE

IN FULL HOUSE OF COMMONS

DEFRA’s “free-shoot-to-kill” badger cull trials could commence as early as Saturday, 1st June 2013 in two pilot regions of West Somerset and West Gloucestershire.

e-petitions initiated by www.38degrees.org.uk and Team Badger opposing the cull outright have already amassed 90,000+ and 216,000+ e-signatures, respectively.  The latter had collected 150,000+ e-signatures by October 2012, triggering a Backbench debate, led by the Green Party’s Caroline Lucas MP.  DEFRA lost that debate 147:28.

Since October 2012, we have campaigned via Facebook for friends to write to their respective MPs, asking their views on whether they are Against (ATC) or For The Cull (FTC).  The data is publicly available on the “PLEBS” web-site: https://sites.google.com/site/badgerlobbying/

From this extensive data-set and further detailed analysis, we assert that DEFRA would not muster a majority in a full House of Commons debate and would lose by at least 11 votes.  Statistically, this could exceed 65 votes if we compensate for those Conservative MPs who failed to respond.

Our message to Owen Paterson MP and his dogmatic DEFRA policymakers to indiscriminately cull badgers is Crystal Clear:

“For Vaccination’s Sake: Stop the Bloody Badger Cull”

+++++++++++++++++++

UPDATE (17 May 2013): Data explained in letter to The Guardian as follows:

We see the following trends:

  1. There is clear Red and Blue water between Labour and Conservatives: Labour votes ATC in totality; Conservatives are on the whole FTC but we have identified 18 who are ATC;
  2. LibDems are 61% ATC and with 25 MPs failing to respond, statistically we believe a further 14 would vote ATC;
  3. Scotland has been able to comprehensively eradicate bovine TB in cattle as minor outbreaks are always swiftly controlled: hence, the 6 Scottish Nationalists would vote ATC;
  4. Wales has commenced a national programme of vaccination: hence, the 3 Welsh Nationalists would vote ATC also;
  5. DEFRA would absolutely require all other MPs (Northern Ireland and Others) to vote FTC, yet this seems unlikely and their votes would be split;
  6. That leaves DEFRA short by 11 votes, but if the remaining 182 Conservatives who chose not to respond are not all FTC as we have assumed and statistically 14.5% choose to vote ATC, then DEFRA is a massive 65 votes short of an overall majority.
UPDATE (16 May 2013): Last chance to update list with new data supplied by Mercy completed with Badger Cull expected to start on 1st June 2013

UPDATE (10 May 2013): Updated list including results of all by-elections and awaiting any additional input from Mercy Full this weekend coming.

UPDATE (10 November 2012): We have input our Key Objectives.  Donna is working on inputting more email and telephone numbers.

UPDATE (09 November 2012): We have added the full spreadsheet on the front page but the formatted Excel 2003 version is best downloaded from the link at the bottom of page (right-side) arrow.  The downloaded file enables you to sort the data and see exactly where the ATC vote is by region.  And many other interesting trends in the data: like who is standing in a marginal seat and at risk of losing their seat at the next General Election.  And the spreadsheet has lots of bright colours too ;-)

UPDATE (08 November 2012): I have added my cousin, Donna Eberhard, to the administrators' list.