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Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences

Published Version: AZamanIERMMEC.pdf  attached at bottom of page.

YouTube Video (60m) of talk delivered at PIDE "Nurturing Minds Seminar" on Thursday 6th February, 11: - 12:30; First few paragraphs & Link to Video as: WEA Pedagogy Blog Post,  and also as RWER Post  Listing in AZ Articles
This talk is also available from (and related to) DHSY -- Hendry Methodology

“Methodological Mistakes and Econometric Consequences,”International Econometric Review, Sep. 2012, Vol. 4, Issue 2, p.99-122.

ABSTRACT: Econometric Methodology is based on logical positivist principles. Since logical positivism has collapsed, it is necessary to re-think these foundations. We show that positivist methodology has led econometricians to a meaningless search for patterns in the data. An alternative methodology which relates observed patterns to real causal structures is proposed
Some of the references cited are collected on a webpage related to an earlier version presented at Cypress Conference. 

Real World Economic Review (RWER Blog Post about this article)

SSRN Version of FINAL PUBLISHED PAPER

Also downloadable from journal website: International Econometric Review

To be published in International Econometric Review in September 2012
Copyright permission for Hoover figure attached below as Zaman.pdf. 
Version MMEC02.doc was the one submitted to IER> 

Paper Presented in Cypress:
Slides for talk are given below.
Paper is in draft form: MMEC01 in DROPBOX/Conferences/Cypress

NOTE: A short separate article on VAR models, STRUCTURAL VAR models and the possibility of using (indeed the necessity of using) Recursive Triangular systems, is essential. To not use Recursive Triangular systems is a specification ERROR in SVAR models. One could proceed by re-estimating SVAR's using triangular systems and showing how the impulse responses change to invalidate earlier analysis.

This idea has been done earlier -- citation to relevant article is contained in Zahid Asghar's work. ZA has been asked to follow up.

1.     References

 

Atiqur-Rahman, (2011) “Impact of Model Specification Decisions on Unit Root Tests,” International Econometric Review, Vol 3:2.

Ayer, A. J. (2008) interview with Brian Magee, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cnRJGs08hE

Barzel, Y. (1972) “The rate of technical progress: The “Indianapolis 500” Journal of Economic Theory, vol 4:1, p.72-81

Freedman, D.A. (1997).From Association to Causation via Regression.In Causality in Crisis?ed. V. McKim and S. Turner.University of Notre Dame Press, South Bend, (with discussion) 113-82. Reprinted in Advances in Applied Mathematics, 18, 59-110

Freedman, D. A (1991) “Statistical Models and Shoe Leather”. Sociological Methodology, vol. 21, pp. 291–313.

Freedman, D.A. (2008), On types of scientific enquiry: Nine success stories in medical research. In The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology, ed. Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady and David Collier. Oxford University Press, Oxford.

Freedman, D.A., R. Pisani and R. Purves (2007). Statistics. Norton, New York

Hendri, Samsul Bahri, (2012), “Export Led Growth Hypothesis: An Analysis of Indonesia’s Trade Policy Pre and Post 1997 Financial Crises” Ph.D. Thesis submitted to IIIE, International Islamic University of Islamabad.

Hendry, D.F. (1993). The Roles of Economic Theory and Econometrics in Time-Series Economics. In European Econometric Society, Invited address, Stockholm.

The Role of Econometrics in Scientific EconomicsDavid F. Hendry.Nuffield College, Oxford, U.K.March 31, 2008
Above is a recent recreation of papers published below (unavailable):

‘Le Role de l’econometrie dans l’economie scientifique’, 172-196 in A.d’Autume and J.Cartelier (eds) L’Economie Devient-elle une Science Dure. Paris: Economica, 1995.  Reprinted in English as ‘The Role of Econometrics in Scientific Economics’, 165-186 in Is Economics Becoming a Hard Science? by Edward Elgar, 1997.    .

Hoover, Kevin D. (2004) “Lost Causes” Journal of the History of Economic Thought, vol. 26, issue 02, pages 149-164

Hoover, Kevin D. (2005) “The Methodology of Econometrics”, article in Palgrave Handbooks of Econometrics, volume 1: Theoretical Econometrics.

Leamer, E. (1978). Specification Searches: Ad Hoc Inference with Non Experimental Data. John Wiley and Sons Inc., New York.

Leamer, E. (1982) “Lets take the con out of Econometrics”,The American Economic Review
Vol. 73, No. 1 (Mar., 1983), pp. 31-43

Magnus, J.R. (1999). The success of econometrics. De Economist, 147(1), 50-58.

Manicas, Peter (1987) History and Philosophy of the Social Sciences, Oxford: Basil Blackwell

Manicas, Peter (2006) A Realist Philosophy of Social Science: Explanation and Understanding, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press

Oaksford, M. & Chater, N. (2007). Bayesian Rationality. Oxford: Oxford University Press

Russell, Bertrand. (1905). "On Denoting", Mind 14, pp. 479–493

Sims, C.A. (1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality,” Econometrica 48, 1-48.

Frederick Suppe (1977) The Structure of Scientific Theories 2nd edn. (Chicago: University of Illinois Press)

Thomas, R. L. (1993) Introductory Econometrics: Theory and Applications, 2nd Edition Longman.

Van Fraassen, Bastiaan C. (1980) The Scientific Image , New York: Oxford University Press

Wong, Stanley (2006) The Foundations of Samuelson’s Theory of Revealed Preference, Routledge,

Zaman, Asad (1996) Statistical Foundations of Econometric Techniques, Academic Press.

Zaman, Asad, Post Positivist Probability (December 21, 2008). Available at SSRN: http://ssrn.com/abstract=1319048 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1319048

Zaman, Asad (2010) “CausalRelations via Econometrics,”International Econometrics Review, vol 2 no. 1

Zaman, Asad (2011) The Normative Foundations of Scarcity. submitted to Real World Economics Review.

 

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