Andrew T. Foerster

Working Papers

• "Asset Purchases in a Monetary Union with Default and Liquidity Risks"
  with Huixin Bi and Nora Traum
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Working Paper 2025-10, May 2025

Publications

• "Estimating Macroeconomic Models of Financial Crises: An Endogenous Regime-Switching Approach"
  with Gianluca Benigno, Chris Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
  Quantitative Economics 16(1), January 2025, 1-47
  Technical Appendix, Replication and Solution Code Package
  
  

• "Communicating Monetary Policy Rules"
  with Troy Davig
  European Economic Review 151, January 2023, 104290
  Replication Files
  
  

• “Aggregate Implications of Changing Sectoral Trends”
  with Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, and Mark Watson
  Journal of Political Economy 130(12), December 2022, 3286–3333
  Technical Appendix, Replication Files
  
  

• "Learning about Regime Change"
  with Christian Matthes
  International Economic Review 63(4), November 2022, 1829-1859
  Replication Files
  
  

• "Search with Wage Posting under Sticky Prices"
  with José Mustre-del-Río
  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 54(2-3), March-April 2022, 599-626
  Technical Appendix, Replication Files
  
  

• "Optimal Monetary Policy Regime Switches"
  with Jason Choi
  Review of Economic Dynamics 42, October 2021,  333-346
  Technical Appendix, Replication Files
  
  

• "Uncertainty and Fiscal Cliffs"
  with Troy Davig
  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 51(7), October 2019, 1857-1887
  Replication Files
  
  

• "Perturbation Methods for Markov-Switching Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models"
  with Juan Rubio-Ramírez, Dan Waggoner, and Tao Zha
  Quantitative Economics 7(2), July 2016, 637-669
  Replication Files
  
  

• "Monetary Policy Regime Switches and Macroeconomic Dynamics"
  International Economic Review 57(1), February 2016, 211-230
  Replication Files
  
  

• "Financial Crises, Unconventional Monetary Policy Exit Strategies, and Agents' Expectations"
  Journal of Monetary Economics 76, November 2015, 191–207
  Technical Appendix, Replication Files
  
  

• "Bayesian Mixed Frequency VARs"
  with Bjorn Eraker, Jeremy Chiu, Tae Bong Kim, and Hernán D. Seoane
  Journal of Financial Econometrics 13(3), Summer 2015, 698-721
  Replication Files
  
  

• "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production"
  with Pierre-Daniel Sarte and Mark Watson
  Journal of Political Economy 119(1), February 2011, 1-38
  Technical Appendix, Replication Files

Federal Reserve Articles

• "The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States"
  with Sabrina Considine
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2025-08, April 7, 2025
  
  

• "Anatomy of the Post-Pandemic Monetary Tightening Cycle"
  with Zinnia Martinez
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2024-16, June 24, 2024
  
  

• "The Evolution of Disagreement in the Dot Plot"

with Zinnia Martinez
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2023-21, August 21, 2023

• "Evaluating Monetary Policy with Inflation Bands and Horizons"

with Troy Davig
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2023-05, February 21, 2023

• "Have Lags in Monetary Policy Transmission Shortened?"

with Taeyoung Doh
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Bulletin, December 21, 2022

• "Monetary Policy Stance Is Tighter than Federal Funds Rate"

with Jason Choi, Taeyoung Doh, and Zinnia Martinez
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2022-30, November 7, 2022

Proxy Funds Rate Data Page

• "Anatomy of a Pandemic Recovery Across Sectors and Regions"
  with Nick Garvey and Pierre-Daniel Sarte
  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Brief 21-40, December 2021
  
  

• "Employment Effects of COVID-19 across States, Sectors"

with Sarah Albert and Pierre-Daniel Sarte

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2021-32, November 22, 2021

• "Permanent and Transitory Effects of the 2008–09 Recession"
  with Lily M. Seitelman
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2020-36, November 30, 2020
  
  

• "Sudden Stops and COVID-19: Lessons from Mexico’s History"
  with Gianluca Benigno, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2020-33, November 9, 2020
  
  

• "The Highs and Lows of Productivity Growth"
  with Christian Matthes and Lily M. Seitelman
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2020-21, August 3, 2020
  
  

• "The Effects of Permanent and Transitory Shocks under Imperfect Information"
  with Pierre-Daniel Sarte
  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 106(2), Second Quarter 2020, 41-59
  
  

• "How Have Changing Sectoral Trends Affected GDP Growth?"
  with Andreas Hornstein, Pierre-Daniel Sarte, and Mark Watson
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2019-18, July 8, 2019
  
  

• "Why Is the Fed’s Balance Sheet Still So Big?"
  with Sylvain Leduc
  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter 2019-16, June 3, 2019
  
  

• "Idiosyncratic Sectoral Growth, Balanced Growth, and Sectoral Linkages"
  with Eric LaRose and Pierre-Daniel Sarte
  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 104(2), Second Quarter 2018, 79-101
  
  

• "Characterizing the 2014–16 Slowdown in Investment"
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Macro Bulletin, December 20, 2017
  
  

• "The Changing Input-Output Network Structure of the U.S. Economy"
  with Jason Choi
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review 102(2), Second Quarter 2017, 23-49
  Appendix
  
  

• "Consumption Growth Regimes and the Post-Financial Crisis Recovery"
  with Jason Choi
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review 101(2), Second Quarter 2016, 25-48
  
  

• "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Unemployment"
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Macro Bulletin, September 4, 2014
  
  

• "The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty"
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review 99(3), Third Quarter 2014, 5-26
  
  

• "Expectations of Large-Scale Asset Purchases"
  with Guangye Cao
  Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review 98(2), Second Quarter 2013, 5-29
  
  

• "Are We Working Too Hard or Should We Be Working Harder? A Simple Model of Career Concerns"
  with Leonardo Martinez
  Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 92(1), Winter 2006, 79-91

Other Work

• "Economic Letter Video: The Changing Disparity in Prices Across States"
  with Sabrina Considine
  SF Fed Blog, May 14, 2025
  
  

• "Gauging the Stance of Monetary Policy on a Weekly Basis"
  with Sabrina Considine and Zinnia Martinez
  SF Fed Blog, July 2, 2024
  
  

• "Finding a Way to Measure How Tight Monetary Policy Is"
  with Zinnia Martinez
  SF Fed Blog, December 1, 2022
  
  

• "COVID-19: A Double Whammy of Financial and Economic Sudden Stops for Emerging Economies"
  with Gianluca Benigno, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
  COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edited by Simeon Djankov and Ugo Panizza, VoxEU, June 2020, 329-341
  
  

• "On the Legacy of Financial Crises: Lessons from Mexico’s Sudden Stop History"
  with Gianluca Benigno, Christopher Otrok, and Alessandro Rebucci
  VoxEU, April 19, 2020
  
  

• "Session with Economists from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco"
  with Sylvain Leduc
  Quora Session, October 16, 2019
  
  

• "Why Is the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Still So Big? Our Animated Economic Letter Explains"
  with Sylvain Leduc
  SF Fed Blog, September 6, 2019