## The Odds

#### What are the odds against the state's assertion that all of these coincidences and occurrences were possible and likely?

In 1718 De Moivre pioneered the development of analytic geometry and the theory of probability. He published The Doctrine of Chance: A method of calculating the probabilities of events in play. He showed that if the chance of throwing a six with one die is one in six, then the chance of throwing two sixes with two dice is one in 36. This calculation is often used by police and prosecutors to show, for example, that the chance of a man having two wives die by drowning in the bathtub is exceedingly small. We apply this method to the prosecution case with the following result.

Note that the estimates of each occurrence listed below are my estimates, however I believe that they are very conservative indeed; and thus an analysis by a statistician is likely to result in much higher odds against Scott's involvement. Note also that Laci was identified only to one in 2 billion, and thus one must concede that it is many times more likely that her body was not the one found in the bay than it is that Scott Peterson was involved in any way.