Economist, Strategy, Policy and Review Department,

International Monetary Fund

1900 Pennsylvania Ave NW, Washington, DC, 20431

E-mail: aari [at]

PhD Economics, University of Cambridge

Interests: Macroeconomics, International Finance, Banking

Curriculum vitae (Last updated: September 2023)

Google scholar

Disclaimer: This is my personal website. The views expressed here do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Refereed publications

Designing Central Bank Digital Currencies, with Itai Agur & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, Journal of Monetary Economics, 125, 62-79. 

Coverage:, Wall Street Journal

Related material: IMF WP, SUERF Policy Note, VoxEU column

The Dynamics of Non-Performing Loans during Banking Crises: A New Database with Post-COVID-19 Implications, with Sophia Chen & Lev Ratnovski, Journal of Banking & Finance, 133, 106140.  

Coverage: NBER IFM Catalogue of Data Sources,  speech by Isabel Schnabel 

Related material: Data, Online Appendix, IMF WP, ECB WP, ECB Research Bulletin, VoxEU column

Working papers

One Hundred Inflation Shocks: Seven Stylized Facts , with Carlos Mulas-Granados, Victor Mylonas, Lev Ratnovski & Wei Zhao, IMF Working Paper 2023/190

Coverage:  FT Alphaville, IMF blog,, The Times, Financial Post, The Telegraph, speeches by Isabel Schnabel and Joachim Nagel 

Related material:  VoxEU column, Finance & Development article, SUERF Policy Brief

Bank Competition and Household Privacy in a Digital Payment Monopoly, with Itai Agur & Giovanni Dell'Ariccia, IMF Working Paper 2023/121

Has the Phillips Curve Become Steeper? , with Daniel Garcia-Macia & Shruti Mishra, IMF Working Paper 2023/100


Foreign Demand and Local House Prices: Evidence from the US, with Damien Puy & Yu Shi, IMF Working Paper 20/43

Shadow Banking and Market Discipline on Traditional Banks with Christoffer Kok, Matthieu Darracq Pariès & Dawid Żochowski, IMF Working Paper 17/285

Coverage: ECB Vice-President's speech

Gambling Traps, ECB Working Paper 2217. [online appendix]

Previously circulated as Sovereign Risk and Bank Risk-Taking, IMF Working Paper 17/280

Awards: 2015 Klaus Liebscher Award, UniCredit & Universities Money, Banking and Finance Best Paper Award, Best Article in International Macro Award at RIEF Florence 2016, Cambridge Finance Best Student Paper Award, ECB Lamfalussy Fellowship, shortlisted for the Young Economist Award at the Third ECB Forum on Central Banking (Sintra) and the Ieke van den Burg Prize

Coverage: Austria Press Agency (in German),

Debt Seniority and Sovereign Debt Crises, with Giancarlo Corsetti & Luca Dedola, IMF Working Paper 18/104

Policy papers and contributions, book chapters and short pieces

Energy Support for Firms in Europe: Best Practice Considerations and Recent Experience , with Philipp Engler, Gloria Li, Manasa Patnam & Laura Valderrama, IMF Working Paper 2023/197

The Energy Price Shock—Impact, Policy Responses, and Reform Options: United Kingdom, with Carlos Mulas Granados, IMF Selected Issues Paper 2023/048

United Kingdom: 2023 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, IMF, July 2023

United Kingdom’s Long-Run Prosperity Hinges on Ambitious Reforms, IMF,  short piece in IMF Country Focus, July 2023

Structural Reforms and Economic Growth: A Machine Learning Approach , with Gabor Pula & Liyang Sun, September 2022

Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels , with Nicolas Arregui, Simon Black, Oya Celasun, Dora M. Iakova, Aiko Mineshima, Victor Mylonas, Ian W. H. Parry, Iulia Teodoru & Karlygash Zhunussova, July 2022

Output Losses in Europe During COVID-19: What Role for Policies? , with Jean-Marc  B. Atsebi & Mar Domenech Palacios, July 2022, also a chapter in Emerging Europe's Chronic Distrust: Lessons from the Region's Covid Puzzle, Piroska Nagy-Mohácsi and Előd Takáts (ed.),  Corvinus University of Budapest.

United Kingdom: 2021 Article IV Consultation Staff Report, IMF, February 2022

Ukraine:  First Review Under the 2020 Stand-By Arrangement Staff Report, IMF, November 2021

Regional Economic Outlook for Europe: Chapter 2, Growth during the Pandemic, with Jean-Marc  B. Atsebi & Mar Domenech Palacios, October 2021

Assessing the Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Ukraine, with Gabor Pula, April 2021

Infrastructure in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe: Benchmarking, Macroeconomic Impact, and Policy Issues, with David Bartolini, Vizhdan Boranova, Gabriel Di Bella, Kamil Dybczak, Keiko Honjo, Raju Huidrom, Andreas Jobst, Nemanja Jovanovic, Ezgi O. Ozturk, Laura Papi, Sergio Sola, Michelle Stone & Petia Topalova, IMF Departmental Paper No. 20/11, September 2020

Coverage: launched in speech by the IMF Managing Director, IMF Country Focus 

Ukraine: 2020 Request for Stand-By Arrangement Staff Report, IMF, June 2020

COVID-19 and non-performing loans: lessons from past crises, with Sophia Chen & Lev Ratnovski, ECB Research Bulletin No. 71, May 2020 

Casting Light on Central Bank Digital Currencies, with Tommaso Mancini-Griffoli, Maria Soledad Martinez Peria, Itai Agur, John Kiff, Celine Rochon & Adina Popescu, in Cryptoassets: Legal, Regulatory and Monetary Perspectives, Chris Brummer (ed.), Oxford Univ. Press 

Coverage: launched in speech by the IMF Managing Director

Related material: IMF Staff Discussion Note 18/08, November 2018, short piece in

Housing Strikes Back: Remaining Attuned to Risks, in IMF Research Perspectives, Vol. 19, No. 2, December 2018

Global Investors, House Price Dispersion and Synchronicity, analytical box in the Global Financial Stability Report, April 2018

A Dynamic Economic and Monetary Union (ADEMU) Conference Proceedings, with Simon Lloyd, October 2015

Lessons from Cyprus that did not make it to Greece, with Giancarlo Corsetti & Andria Lysiotou. Short piece in, August 2015

Coverage: World Economic Forum