latest update: March 18th, 2015

Selection of Old Research Projects:

History of land ownership and taxation in Liechtenstein and economic development: This is a research project together with and under the lead of Zbigniew Dumienski (University of Auckland). The Liechtenstein Institute Working Paper Nr. 49 (released in 2015) is the reult of this collaboration.

Several econometric investigations
Deeper analysis and separation of long-term growth and short-run fluctuations of Liechtenstein's economy, Liechtenstein in international context (leading/lagging properties, synchronization of cycles, convergence, “great moderation” vs. “great agitation”), structural breaks, persistence of shocks, development of GDP’s volatility and trend growth over time, sources of growth, Okun’s Law/Phillips Curve. Some results of the just mentioned topics were published in Arbeitspapier Liechtenstein-Institut Nr. 44. Insights on the growth of Liechtenstein's potential output have been published as KOFL Working Paper No. 11 (together with Prof. Carsten-Henning Schlag and Dr.habil. Kersten Kellermann).

Revelation of tax evasion ("Zumwinkel-Affair"
) :
This project was a part of my PhD-thesis at the University of Vienna and originally evolved from a very early version as a contribution to the PhD-course "Non-Linear Time Series " held by Prof. Robert Kunst. An revised and extended version was published in the Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics. Abstract: Additionally to the financial crisis causing a world recession, Liechtenstein's financial sector has been challenged by the so-called "Zumwinkel-Affair", when a whistle-blower sold data of hundreds of tax evaders to international tax authorities. This paper investigates the impact of this affair on the daily stock prices of banks from Liechtenstein. An unconventional augmented GARCH-model (labelled as "augmented amalGARCH"), which outperforms conventional models, is introduced and dynamically analyses various influences on risk and returns. Also, an event study framework is applied. The main finding beyond further conclusions is that the Zumwinkel-Affair had an (accumulating) effect on risk, but surprisingly no impact on average stock return could be detected.

Backward estimation of national aggregates of Liechtenstein's economy : So far, This contribution was a part in my PhD-thesis and was published (in November 2012) as KOFL Working Paper No. 14 and in a summarized (German) version as KOFL Economic Focus No. 4 and KOFL Economic Focus No. 5. The estimated series have already been used in several research projects, anaylses and publications in the context of Liechtenstein's economy and are now part of the official statistical yearbook of Liechtenstein. Abstract: Several economic data series of Liechtenstein are backwardly estimated in order to achieve consistent historic time series. The generated series consist for instance of the national income 1954-1992 (regressive inter- and retropolation with indicators) and 1993-1997 (approximative computation according to national accounting scheme), the sectoral and total employment of some missing years in the 70s, 80s and 90s and the gross domestic product 1972-1997 (approximative computation/estimation in line with generation of income account of national accounts). These series can be linked with the officially released results from the national accounts, which were introduced for the year 1998 and published until 2009 so far. Also, a benchmark model has been presented, which serves as a supporting supplement to the annual GDP-forecast for Liechtenstein’s economy carried out by the KOFL Liechtenstein Economic Institute.

Business cycle indicator "KonSens" : The KonSens is a quarterly coincident business cycle indicator ("Konjunktur-Sensor") that delievers a composite signal ("business cycle as a consensus") from twenty economic variables of Liechtenstein. It was developed as one part of my PhD-thesis at the University of Vienna and will be released in the future on a quarterly base. Along with this project, also quarterly GDP-figures for Liechtenstein have been estimated for the first time. The already finished Working Paper (an updated version of the second chapter of my PhD-thesis) about the method and first results/insights of the KonSens will be released when the KonSens will be officially launched. Abstract: The basis of data that are relevant for business cycle analysis in Liechtenstein is scarce, especially in sub-annual frequency. In this paper, the base of economic data is being extended by the development of a composite (coincident) business cycle indicator, the “KonSens”. In this vein, a valuable complement to the ordinary business cycle definition, which concentrates on the cyclical deviation from the trend of certain separate economic aggregates, is being provided. By the detection and filtering of a common business cycle signal (“business cycle as a consensus”) of multiple indicators, the KonSens as a “Konjunktur-Sensor” generates a broader foundation for business cycle analysis and therefore also a new base for prediction. All the work steps, relevant methods and first results are presented, whereby also quarterly figures for Liechtenstein’s GDP are being estimated for the first time.

Panel-data project Bundesliga : Empirical investigation of a data panel regarding the first German football league (consisting of different observed variables for each game during the past 40 years) to analyse the rationality of the coaches' desicions. This was joint work together with Berno Büchel (University of Fribourg).