Anna Cieslak / Welcome to my homepage

Assistant Professor of Finance

Duke University

Fuqua School of Business

CEPR Research Affiliate

ancieslak at gmail dot com

Publications and forthcoming papers

Expected returns in Treasury bonds, with Pavol Povala, Review of Financial Studies, 2015, 28(10), 2859-2901 (paper) (appendix)

Information in the term structure of yield curve volatility, with Pavol Povala, Journal of Finance, 2016, 71(3), 1393-1436 (paper) (appendix)

Short-rate expectations and unexpected returns in Treasury bonds, Review of Financial Studies, 2018, 31(9), 3265-3306 (paper)

Lead Article and Editor's Choice

Stock returns over the FOMC cycle, with Adair Morse and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen, Journal of Finance, forthcoming (paper) (appendix)

Best Paper Prize, ASU Sonoran Winter Finance Conference, 2015

Media: WSJ, Reuters, Economist

Working papers

Non-monetary news in central bank communication, with Andreas Schrimpf, Journal of International Economics, conditionally accepted (paper)

Updated: August 2018; NBER ISoM

Media: VoxEU

The economics of the "Fed put", with Annette Vissing-Jorgensen (paper) (submitted)

Updated: October 2018; NBER ME and NBER AP

Media: Bloomberg, WSJ

Resting papers

Carry trade and currency mix of corporate debt, with Manuel Adelino and Lorena Keller

Updated: February 2017; SED'17

Nominal term spread, real rate and consumption growth, with Pavol Povala (paper)

Updated: February 2014

Correlation risk and the term structure of interest rates, with Andrea Buraschi and Fabio Trojani (paper)

Updated: October 2008; WFA'07, EFA'07, ASAP'07

Recent conference discussions

Outside the Box: Unconventional monetary policy in the Great Recession and beyond, K. Kuttner, Brookings Institution 2018 (link)

The time variation in risk appetite and uncertainty, G. Bekaert, E. Engstrom and N. Xu, Conference on Global Risk, Uncertainty and Volatility, Federal Reserve Board 2018

Monetary policy slope and the stock market, A. Neuhierl and M. Weber, AFA 2018

Interest rates under falling stars, M. Bauer and G. Rudebusch, Bank of Canada-SF Fed Fixed Income Conference 2017

The Federal Reserve and market confidence, N. Boyarchenko, V. Haddad and M. Plosser, NBER SI Macro Money and Financial Frictions 2017

The cross-section of subjective bond risk premia, A. Buraschi, I. Piatti and P. Wehlan, Adam Smith Asset Pricing Conference 2017

The banking view of bond risk premia, V. Haddad and D. Sraer, AFA 2017

One central bank to rule them all, F. Brusa, P. Savor and M. Wilson, WFA 2016

Robust bond risk premia, M. Bauer and J. Hamilton, WFA 2016

Monetary policy through production networks, A. Ozdagli and M. Weber, Duke/UNC Asset Pricing Conference 2016

Monetary policy surprises, investment opportunities, and asset prices, A. Detzel, AFA 2016

Economic policy uncertainty and the yield curve, M. Leippold and F. Matthys, November 2015, 5th Conference on Fixed Income Markets, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Bank of Canada

The equilibrium real funds rate: Past, present and future , J. Hamilton, E. Harris, J. Hatzius and K. West, October 2015, Brookings Institution (link)

Deflation risk, M. Fleckenstein, H. Lustig and F. Longstaff, ASU Sonoran 2015 (Best Discussant Prize)

Surveys expectations of returns and asset pricing puzzles, R.J. Koijen, M. Schmeling and E.B. Vurgt, AFA 2015 (slides) - Sketches of my work-in-progress on "Growth expectations and expectations of returns"