Associate Professor, Department of Economics, Lehigh University

  1. Current position: Associate Professor of Economics, Lehigh University, 2015 - Present
  2. Interests: Macroeconomics/Monetary Policy Analysis, International Economics & Finance, Applied Econometrics
  3. Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Houston,  2008. M.A. in Economics (with Honors), EERC/KSE, 2003. M.Sc. in Physics, Odessa National University, 2001
  4. Citizenship: Ukraine (U.S. Permanent Resident)
  5. Marital Status: Married to Olena Nikolsko-Rzhevska
  6. Download CV in pdf
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Publications and Papers Under Revision
  1. "Violent Conflict and Online Segregation: An analysis of social network communication across Ukraine's regions,'' with Dinissa Duvanova, Alexander Nikolaev, and Alexander Semenov, forthcoming in the Journal of Comparative Economics
  2. "Policy Rule Legislation in Practice,'' with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2015. Forthcoming in the Central Bank Governance and Oversight Reform, Hoover Institution Press
  3. "To Be or Not to Be: An Optimum Currency Area for South Asia," with Krishna Regmi and Robert Thornton, 2015. Forthcoming in the Journal of Policy Modeling
  4. "Markov Switching and the Taylor Principle," with Christian Murray and David Papell, 2015. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol.  19, Special Issue 4, June, Pages 913-930
  5. "Deviations from Rules-Based Policy and Their Effects," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 49, December, Pages 4-17
  6. "Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian I.T. Firms," with David Kemme and Deepraj Mukherjee, 2014. Review of Development Economics, Volume  18(4), Pages 681–692.
  7. "AIDing Contraception: HIV and Recent Trends in Abortion Rates," with Andrew Hussey and Jay Walker, 2014. Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 15, Pages 1788-1803 [wp_version]
  8. "The Effects of Wage Volatility on Growth," with Michael Jetter and William Smith, 2013. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 37, September, Pages 93–109 [wp_version]
  9. "Taylor’s Rule versus Taylor Rules" with David Papell, 2013. International Finance, Vol 16, Issue 1, Pages 71-93 [wp_version]
  10. "Taylor Rules and the Great Inflation," with David Papell, 2012. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 34, Issue 4, December 2012, Pages 903–918 (Leading article) [wp version]
  11. "Markov Switching and Exchange Rate Predictability," with Ruxandra Prodan, 2012. International Journal of Forecasting, Volume 28, Issue 2, April–June 2012, Pages 353–365 [wp version]
  12. "Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," (single-authored) 2011. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 5 (August) Pages 871-897 [wp version]
  13. "Taylor Rules and the Euro," with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2011.  Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 2–3 (March–April) Pages 535-552 [wp version]
  14. "Forecasting the End of the Global Recession: Did We Miss the Early Signs?," with Adriana Fernandez, 2011. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 12, April, Pages 1-16
  15. "Can Alternative Taylor-rule Specifications Describe the Federal Reserve Decisions?," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2010. Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 32, Issue 6, November-December, Pages 733-757 .
  16. "The Changing Nature of the U.S. Economic Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2010. Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 32, Issue 2, March-April, Pages 196-209.
  17. "Taylor Rules and Real-Time Data: A Tale of Two Countries and One Exchange Rate," with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2008. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, Pages S63-S79. [wp version]
  18. "The Relative Performance of Alternative Taylor Rule Specifications," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2008. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 6, June, Pages 1-24
  19. "Crime Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina," with Andrew Hussey and Ioana Pacurar. Under 4th revision for the Journal of Human Resources
  20. "The Comparative Performance of Alternative Out-of-sample Predictability Tests with Non-linear Models," with Yu Liu and Ruxandra Prodan. Under revision for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
Policy Papers
  1. "The Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not raising rates now,'' (single-authored), 2015. The Conversation (US), September 17. Picked up by,  Business Insider,  World News,  BusinessSpectator,  Washington's blog, and others

  2. "Why the economy - and the Fed - isn't ready for a rise in rates" (single-authored), 2015.

  3. "NBU and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Rules for the Road Ahead,'' (single-authored), 2014. Forbes (Ukraine), August 28

  4. "Real-Time Historical Dataset Enhances Accuracy of Economic Analyses," with Adriana Z. Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2012. Economic Letter, Vol. 7, No. 6, July, Pages 1-4
  5. "Globalization and the Changing Nature of the U.S. Economy's Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2008. Economic Letter, Vol. 3, No. 11, November, Pages 1-8
  6. "Measuring the Taylor Rule's Performance," with Adriana Fernandez, 2007. Economic Letter, Vol. 2, No. 6, June.
Working Papers
  1. "The Taylor Principles," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Submitted. 
  2. "(Taylor) Rules Versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Submitted.
  3. "Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," with David Papell, 2013. Submitted.
  4. "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," with Michael Jetter, 2013. Submitted.
  5. "A Real-Time Historical Database for the OECD," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan Koenig, 2012. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper No. 96.  Submitted.
  6. "Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls," with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. NBER working paper w16034. Submitted.
  1. Graduate classes taught: Advanced Macroeconomics I (syllabus), Advanced Macroeconomics II (syllabus), Advanced Quantitative Economic Analysis (syllabus), Econometrics II Applied Microeconometrics (syllabus), Applied Monetary Economics/Time Series Econometrics (Macro II) (syllabus)
  2. Undergraduate classes taught: Introduction to Macroeconomics (syllabus), Quantitative Economic Analysis (syllabus)
  3. Lecture notes (pdf): Macro: Consumption and Savings, Macro: GrowthMacro: Business CyclesMacro: Monetary Policy, Applied Microeconometrics, Quantitative Economics
  4. Teaching evaluations
Work in progress
  1. "The Effect of Recessions on Fiscal and Monetary Policy," with Dean Croushore.
  2. "Globalization and Inequality: Evidence from 19th Century Rainfalls," with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Dietrich Vollrath, 2010.
  1. David Papell, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3807 Email:
  2. Dean Croushore, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Richmond. Phone: 804-287-1961 Email:
  3. Christian Murray, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3835 Email:
  4. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston and NBER. Phone: 713-743-3824 Email: