- Current position: Associate Professor of Economics, Lehigh University, 2015 - Present
- Interests: Macroeconomics/Monetary Policy Analysis, International
Economics & Finance, Applied Econometrics
- Education: Ph.D. in Economics, University of Houston, 2008. M.A. in Economics (with Honors), EERC/KSE, 2003. M.Sc. in Physics, Odessa National
- Citizenship: Ukraine (U.S. Permanent Resident)
- Marital Status: Married to Olena Nikolsko-Rzhevska
- Download CV in pdf
|Publications and Papers Under Revision
- "Violent Conflict and Online Segregation: An analysis of social network communication across Ukraine's regions,'' with Dinissa Duvanova, Alexander Nikolaev, and Alexander Semenov, forthcoming in the Journal of Comparative Economics
- "Policy Rule Legislation in Practice,'' with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2015. Forthcoming in the Central Bank Governance and Oversight Reform, Hoover Institution Press
- "To Be or Not to Be: An Optimum Currency Area for South Asia," with Krishna Regmi and Robert Thornton, 2015. Forthcoming in the Journal of Policy Modeling
- "Markov Switching and the Taylor Principle," with Christian Murray and David Papell, 2015. Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 19, Special Issue 4, June, Pages 913-930
- "Deviations from Rules-Based Policy and Their Effects," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Vol. 49, December, Pages 4-17
- "Foreign Direct Investment and Export Performance in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Indian I.T. Firms," with David Kemme and Deepraj Mukherjee, 2014. Review of Development Economics, Volume 18(4), Pages 681–692.
- "AIDing Contraception: HIV and Recent Trends in Abortion Rates," with Andrew Hussey and Jay Walker, 2014. Applied Economics, Volume 46, Issue 15, Pages 1788-1803 [wp_version]
- "The Effects of Wage Volatility on Growth," with Michael Jetter and William Smith, 2013. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 37, September, Pages 93–109 [wp_version]
- "Taylor’s Rule versus Taylor Rules" with David Papell, 2013. International Finance, Vol 16, Issue 1, Pages 71-93 [wp_version]
- "Taylor Rules and the Great Inflation," with David Papell, 2012. Journal of Macroeconomics, Volume 34, Issue 4, December 2012, Pages 903–918 (Leading article) [wp version]
- "Markov Switching and Exchange Rate Predictability,"
with Ruxandra Prodan, 2012. International
Journal of Forecasting, Volume 28, Issue 2, April–June 2012, Pages 353–365 [wp version]
Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without
Forward-Looking Data," (single-authored) 2011. Journal of Money, Credit and
Banking, Vol. 43, No. 5 (August) Pages 871-897 [wp version]
- "Taylor Rules and the Euro," with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2011. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 43, No. 2–3 (March–April) Pages 535-552 [wp version]
- "Forecasting the End of the Global Recession: Did We Miss the Early Signs?," with Adriana Fernandez, 2011. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 12, April, Pages 1-16
- "Can Alternative Taylor-rule Specifications Describe the Federal Reserve Decisions?," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2010. Journal of Policy Modeling, Volume 32, Issue 6, November-December, Pages 733-757 .
- "The Changing Nature of the U.S. Economic Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2010.
Journal of Policy Modeling Volume 32, Issue 2, March-April, Pages 196-209.
- "Taylor Rules and Real-Time Data: A Tale of Two Countries and One Exchange Rate,"
with Tanya Molodtsova and David Papell, 2008. Journal of Monetary Economics 55, Pages S63-S79. [wp version]
- "The Relative Performance of Alternative Taylor Rule Specifications," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2008. Dallas Fed Staff Papers, No. 6, June, Pages 1-24
Spillovers and Hurricane Katrina,"
with Andrew Hussey and Ioana Pacurar. Under 4th revision for the Journal of Human Resources
- "The Comparative Performance of Alternative Out-of-sample Predictability Tests with Non-linear Models," with Yu Liu and Ruxandra Prodan. Under revision for Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics
"The Federal Reserve is losing credibility by not raising rates now,'' (single-authored), 2015. The Conversation (US), September 17. Picked up by Fortune.com, Business Insider, World News, BusinessSpectator, Washington's blog, and others
"Why the economy - and the Fed - isn't ready for a rise in rates" (single-authored), 2015.
"NBU and Inflation Targeting: Monetary Policy Rules for the Road Ahead,'' (single-authored), 2014. Forbes (Ukraine), August 28
- "Real-Time Historical Dataset Enhances Accuracy of Economic Analyses," with Adriana Z. Fernandez and Evan F. Koenig, 2012. Economic Letter, Vol. 7, No. 6, July, Pages 1-4
- "Globalization and the Changing Nature of the U.S. Economy's Influence in the World," with Adriana Fernandez, 2008. Economic Letter, Vol. 3, No. 11, November, Pages 1-8
- "Measuring the Taylor Rule's Performance," with Adriana Fernandez, 2007. Economic Letter, Vol. 2, No. 6, June.
- "The Taylor Principles," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Submitted.
- "(Taylor) Rules Versus Discretion in U.S. Monetary Policy," with David Papell and Ruxandra Prodan, 2014. Submitted.
- "Real-Time Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," with David Papell, 2013. Submitted.
- "Monetary Policy Shifts and the Forward Discount Puzzle," with Michael Jetter, 2013. Submitted.
- "A Real-Time Historical Database for the OECD," with Adriana Fernandez and Evan Koenig, 2012. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Working Paper No. 96. Submitted.
- "Does Trade Cause Capital to Flow? Evidence from Historical Rainfalls," with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2012. NBER working paper w16034. Submitted.
- Graduate classes taught: Advanced Macroeconomics I (syllabus), Advanced Macroeconomics II (syllabus), Advanced Quantitative Economic Analysis (syllabus), Econometrics II Applied Microeconometrics (syllabus), Applied Monetary Economics/Time Series Econometrics (Macro II) (syllabus)
- Undergraduate classes taught: Introduction to Macroeconomics (syllabus), Quantitative Economic Analysis (syllabus)
- Lecture notes (pdf): Macro: Consumption and Savings, Macro: Growth, Macro: Business Cycles, Macro: Monetary Policy, Applied Microeconometrics, Quantitative Economics
- Teaching evaluations
- "The Effect of Recessions on Fiscal and Monetary Policy," with Dean Croushore.
- "Globalization and Inequality: Evidence from 19th Century Rainfalls,"
with Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan and Dietrich Vollrath, 2010.
- David Papell, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3807 Email: firstname.lastname@example.org
- Dean Croushore, Professor and Chairman, Department of Economics, University of Richmond. Phone: 804-287-1961 Email: email@example.com
- Christian Murray, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston. Phone: 713-743-3835 Email: Christian.Murray@mail.uh.edu
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Professor, Department of Economics, University of Houston and NBER. Phone: 713-743-3824 Email: Sebnem.Kalemli-Ozcan@mail.uh.edu