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        Assistant Professor of Finance
        BI Norwegian Business School
        Nydalsveien 37
        0484 Oslo     
        Norway

       

        E-mail: alessandro.graniero@bi.no 

        Tel: +47 46410607 

        


         Curriculum Vitae
 





       

Research Interests
                          
 Asset Pricing Theory, Learning, Heterogeneous Beliefs, Macroeconomics




Working Papers


- Information Precision, Confidence Risk and the Macroeconomy,  2016.  Download

I study  a real business cycle model in which confidence is affected by fluctuations in information precision. Variations in information precision are a source of aggregate uncertainty that influence the perception of macroeconomic outcomes, but do not modify the distribution of realized shocks. Shocks to information precision cause fluctuations in macroeconomic aggregates such as consumption and investment that are disconnected from the fundamental shocks of the economy. Learning and fluctuations in information precision generate stock market crashes that are not driven by movements in macroeconomic variables.

Publications

- Asset Prices and Portfolio Choice with Learning from Experience (with P. Ehling and C. Heyerdahl-Larsen), Forthcoming,   Review of Economic Studies,  Download 

We study asset prices and portfolio choice with overlapping generations, where the young disregard history to learn from own experience. Disregarding history implies less precise estimates of output growth,  which in equilibrium leads the young to increase their investment in risky assets after positive returns, that is, they act as trend chasers. In equilibrium, the risk premium decreases after a positive shock and,  therefore, trend chasing young agents lose wealth relative to old agents who behave as contrarians. Consistent with findings from survey data, the average belief about the risk premium in the economy  relates negatively to future excess returns and is smoother than the true risk premium.


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