Adrien  Bilal

WORK IN PROGRESS

Global Temperature and Global Mortality, with D. Känzig and K. Lisiecki

Climate change causes indirect mortality losses due to economic disruptions and associated slowdowns in life expectancy improvement.

Growth Spillovers and Life Expectancy, with D. Känzig and K. Lisiecki

Growth at the economic frontier spills over to lower income countries, reducing mortality through improved nutrition.

Climate Risk In Dynamic Spatial Equilibrium, with S. Franco and E. Rossi-Hansberg

Local climate risk due to extreme weather shocks is substantially more costly than aggregate uncertainty in warming trajectories.

Balancing Growth in a Warming World, with T. Ingrand and D. Känzig 

Growth can occur despite climate change but at a slower rate, implying qualitatively different optimal policy: a tight warming cap.

Climate Risks and Financial Stability: 1850-2024, with E. Ilhan, D. Känzig, K. Müller and C. Xu

Climate shocks increase sovereign debt and debt-to-GDP ratios, driven by rising government expenditures and falling GDP.

WORKING PAPERS

Anticipating Climate Change Across the United States, with E. Rossi-Hansberg

R&R, Econometrica. NBER Working Paper 31323, Slides, VoxEU column.

Solving Heterogeneous Agent Models with the Master Equation

R&R, Journal of Political Economy. NBER Working Paper 31103, Slides.     

PUBLICATIONS

Outsourcing, Inequality and Aggregate Output, with H. Lhuillier

Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy. NBER Working Paper 29348. 20 minutes podcast by InequaliTalks.

A Guide to Macroeconomics and Climate Change, with J. Stock

Forthcoming, Journal of Economic Literature. NBER Working Paper 33567.

Forthcoming, Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics. Code repository: zip file, GitHub; NBER Working Paper 33525, Slides.

The Macroeconomic Impact of Climate Change: Global vs. Local Temperature, with D. Känzig

The Quarterly Journal of Economics (Lead Article). Vol. 141, (May 2026) 889-944. Online Appendix, Replication package, VoxEU column.

Media: American Enterprise Institute, Bloomberg, BFM TV, The Bulletin, Business Brief, Business Green, Business Standard, Carbon Brief, The Climate Pod, Daily Kos, Deutschlandfunk, Les Echos, Les Echos (opinion), The Economist, The Economic Times, EURACTIV Italia, Energy Monitor, Le Figaro, The Globe and Mail, The Guardian, The Harvard Gazette, The.Ink, The Indian Express, Institut Avant Garde, Maeil Business News Korea, MSN Money, Al Mayadeen, Le Monde, Morningstar, Nature World News, Nature (comment), Neue Zürcher Zeitung, New York Times, La Presse, PreventionWeb, La Repubblica, Semafor, Radio France International, Table Climate. 

Does Unilateral Decarbonization Pay For Itself?, with D. Känzig

American Economic Association Papers and Proceedings. Vol. 115, (May 2025) 369-373. Media: Financial Times, Le Monde.

The Geography of Unemployment

The Quarterly Journal of Economics. Vol. 138, No. 3 (August 2023), 1507–1576. Online Appendix, Replication Package.

Firm and Worker Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market, with N. Engbom, S. Mongey and G. Violante

Econometrica. Vol. 90, No. 4 (July 2022), 1425-1462. Online Supplement, Replication Package.

2026 Frisch Medal for best applied paper published in Econometrica in the previous four years.

Labor Market Dynamics When Ideas are Harder to Find, with N. Engbom, S. Mongey and G. Violante

The Economics of Creative Destruction. Ed. Akcigit, Van Reenen. NBER Working paper 29479

Location as an Asset, with E. Rossi-Hansberg

Econometrica. Vol. 89, No. 5 (September 2021), 2459–2495. Online Supplement.