Working Papers / Work in Progress

[1] ''Twin Peaks: Covid-19 and the Labor Market'' (with Jake Bradley and Alessandro Ruggieri) [June 9 2020] Paper
This paper develops a choice-theoretic equilibrium model of the labor market in the presence of a pandemic. It includes heterogeneity in productivity, age and the ability to work at home. Worker and firm behavior changes in the presence of the virus, which itself has equilibrium consequences for the infection rate. The model is calibrated to the UK and counterfactual lockdown measures are evaluated. We find a different response in both the evolution of the virus and the labor market with different degrees of severity of lockdown. We use these insights to make a labor market policy prescription to be used in conjunction with lockdown measures. Finally we find that, while the pandemic and ensuing policies impact the majority of the population negatively, consistent with recent studies, the costs are not borne equally. While the old face the highest health risks, it is the young low wage workers who suffer the most income and employment risk.

[2] "Policy Effects of International Taxation on Firm Dynamics and Capital Structure" [January 10 2020] PaperSlidesSeminar (Virtual ITM)
Revise and resubmit at Review of Economic Studies
This paper develops a quantitative open economy framework with dynamics, firm heterogeneity and financial frictions to study the impact of corporate tax reforms targeted at multinationals. The model quantifies their impact on productivity, GDP and welfare. Firms draw idiosyncratic shocks, invest in capital, choose optimal financing and select endogenously into servicing an overseas market, either through exporting or FDI. I apply this framework to the removal of the U.S. repatriation tax, an aspect of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The reform's impact trades-off two selection effects --- more offshoring versus greater  business dynamism from increased profitability. The reform leads to higher U.S. welfare and revenue neutrality. A series of exercises illustrate that the novel features of this framework have significant quantitative implications. The reform's beneficial effects are mitigated considerably when financial frictions are removed and it appears to be welfare reducing when using a static analogue of the model.

[3] "A Re-Examination of Financing Constraints and Investment to Cash Flow Sensitivity", (with Shuyun May Li).

Peer-Reviewed Publications

[1] "Effectiveness of the Australian Fiscal Stimulus Package: a DSGE Analysis", (with Shuyun May Li), 2016, Economic Record, 92, 94-120 - Link
We develop and estimate a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the effectiveness of the Australian fiscal stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis (GFC). The estimated model implies a fiscal multiplier of 0.9 on impact and 1.26 with one-year monetary accommodation. Utilising the estimated shocks – in particular, the fiscal shocks that mimic the stimulus transfers – we conduct several counterfactual policy experiments. Our results suggest that the stimulus transfers were almost equally important as the concurrent monetary easing actions in helping the Australian economy to avoid a recession after the GFC.

Policy Papers

[1] ``The Effects of Removing the Corporate Repatriation Tax'', 2017, Center for Research on the Wisconsin Economy (CROWE) -  Link