This page is an unordered round-up of several related sites on the assessment and propagation of uncertainty in modeling, simulation, risk analysis, and decision making.
Bayes interval calculator for medical tests
Chance of disease given a test and interval estimates of prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity
Computing with confidence
How to propagate traditional confidence intervals through calculations
Probability boxes
Wikipedia article on a computationally convenient characterization of uncertain numbers
Probability bounds analysis
Wikipedia article on computing with probability boxes
Probabilistic dilation
When learning more information necessarily increases your uncertainty
Imprecision Friday
Occasional lectures and working groups on uncertainty
Probabilistic risk analysis with hardly any data
Tutorial on developing probabilistic risk analyses with little or no empirical data
Beyond the statistician's bag of marbles
How binary sampling data informs us when we can’t make the usual assumptions, with challenge problems about estimating probabilities
Risk communication: evolution, evidence and experience
Symposium bringing together risk analysts, anthropologists and evolutionary biologists
Uncertainty projection in engineered systems
Methods and tools for projecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainty through engineering models arising from the Sandia Epistemic Uncertainty project, circa 2001-2009
Compensating for uncertainty biases in health risk judgments
Methods for patient counseling in personalized medicine where relevant data are sparse
Uncertainty sayings
Quotations about uncertainty and sundry topics
Exemplar problems
Challenge problems for uncertainty assessments from sparse information
Model-form uncertainty
Challenge problems related to model uncertainty in risk analysis
Beyond the statistician's bag of marbles
Challenge problems on estimating probabilities from trial data
Wrangling Epistemic Uncertainty
Discussion in a "thinkover" at the University of Liverpool
Ten Little Problems
Challenge problems for the thinkover on epistemic uncertainty in risk analysis
NASA LaRC UQ Challenge 2014 (see also)
Original NASA Langley Multidisciplinary Uncertainty Quantification Challenge
NASA Langley UQ Challenge on Optimization Under Uncertainty
The 2019 NASA Langley Uncertainty Quantification Challenge on Optimization Under Uncertainty
NAFEMS Stochastic Challenge Problems (see also the blog post)
Sequence of challenge problems by the Stochastics Working Group promoting engineering simulation
Black-box Reliability Challenge 2019 (see also the introduction)
Department of Structural Reliability, Nederlandse Organisatie voor Toegepast Natuurwetenschappelijk Onderzoek (Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research)
Sandia Verification and Validation Challenge Workshop
Series of workshops hosted by Sandia National Laboratories and ASME on developing V&V concepts, methods, and processes
DigiTwin: Digital twins for improved dynamic design
UKRI-funded research project to create robustly-validated digital twins for dynamics applications
R
Statistical computing environment
Uncertainty quantification
Wikipedia article on uncertainty quantification
Risk assessment
Wikipedia article on risk analysis
Institute for Risk and Uncertainty
School of Engineering at the University of Liverpool
ETH Risk Center
Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich (ETH Zurich)
Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems
School of Engineering and Applied Science at the University of Virginia
Society for Risk Analysis
International scholarly society providing an open forum for everyone interested in risk analysis
NAFEMS
International association for the engineering modelling, analysis and simulation community
AB's NIH ARRA research needs
Research questions in the NIH ARRA project "Compensating for Uncertainty Biases in Health Risk Judgments"
Advanced bias correction
Collaboration on advanced bias correction
Algorithms paper
Algorithms for computing the mean and variance of a p-box under unary transformations
Applications of p-boxes and probability bounds analysis
Wikipedia article on the scientific and engineering applications of probability bounds analysis
Applied Biomathematics Uncertainty
Roundup of public websites related to uncertainty from research at Applied Biomathematics
Applied Biomathematics' NIH ARRA links
Roundup of websites for Applied Biomathematics' NIH-funded project on medical counseling software
Bad Data (older version)
Handling messy, ill-focused, sparse, qualitative, multivariable, unbalanced, incomplete, imprecise, missing, dubiously relevant data
Bayes Days
Informal convocation of Bayesian and would-be Bayesians do discuss their problems
Bayes interval calculator for medical tests
Chance of disease given a test and interval estimates of prevalence and test sensitivity and specificity
Bayes' rule without independence assumptions
Do we have to assume samples are independent to use Bayes' rule?
Beyond the statistician's bag of marbles
How binary sampling data informs us when we can’t make the usual assumptions
Biological and evolutionary context of risk analysis
Perspectives from biology and evolution inform risk analysis and communication
Book on uncertain numbers
Material for a planned book Uncertain Numbers
Confidence box for the binomial rate, cbox.binomial
Confidence structure for the binomial rate from random trial data using a brute-form simulation approach
Confidence box for both binomial(n,p) parameters in n×p space
Estimating both binomial parameters from random binary trial data using a brute-force simulation approach
Characterizing distributions
Challenge problems for a review of methods to characterize inputs for quantitative risk assessments
Combating indubiety
Ways to fight against the social ills created by poorly calibrated skepticism
Communicating uncertain risks
Techniques for effectively communicating uncertainties and risks to humans
Comparing binomial rates with poor data
Software tools to compare binomial process rates under poor data about successes and failures
Computing with confidence
Review paper on risk analysis based on confidence structures
Confidence boxes
Reviews and demonstration papers about statistical confidence structures in risk analysis
Credal set
Wikipedia article on sets of probability measures
Critical habitat
EPRI project on how critical habitat is addressed within the context of the Endangered Species Act
DAWS UQ framework
Primer on methods and ideas in uncertainty quantification
DAWS uncertainty analysis
All topics of uncertainty analysis and the DAWS UQ project website
Designing diagnostic algorithms
Proposal for software to aid physicians and public health workers in designing testing strategies and diagnostic algorithms
Digital Twin uncertainty research
A research project at the Liverpool Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, part of the EPSRC DigiTwin Programme Grant
Dilation
Dilation is a phenomenon in which learning more information necessarily increases your uncertainty
Disease cluster detection
On-going project to develop statistical methods for detecting disease clusters in structured settings
Distribution-free risk analysis
Series of papers on propagating probabilistic uncertainty without assumptions about distribution shapes
Document Abstraction Markup Language
Tools for next-generation science and engineering that are distributed, accessible and trackable
Dubito (extra)
Software for predictive analytics with imprecise data
ENGG185 Statistics and Programming for Engineers
First-year undergraduate course introducing engineers to statistics and programming
Equivalent binomial count
Using expressions like "k out of n" to convey uncertainty about a probability
Extreme values in space
Reliability of engineered space systems (satellites) to space weather (solar flares)
Flat Earth replies
Responses to selected arguments in a variety of Flat Earth conspiracy videos on Youtube
Fréchet inequalities
Wikipedia article on bounds on probabilities of logical conjunctions (AND) and disjunctions (OR)
HEG risk assessment
Assessing adverse environmental effects from a genetic-drive mosquito-control project in Africa
HTML characters for Google sites
Bestiary of special characters that can be copied onto Google Sites webpages
Humane algorithms
Collaboration for a paper on how to improve the fairness, friendliness, efficacy and correctness of algorithms that automate decision making
Indubiety
Gullibility that becomes socially dangerous
Imprecision Friday
Occasional lectures and working groups on uncertainty at Applied Biomathematics
Intervalized logistic regression [subsumed by 'Intervalized statistics']
Review paper on interval censoring and missing data in logistic regression
Intervalized statistics
Book collaboration on descriptive and inferential statistics for data sets that contain intervals
Intstats (alternate)
Cloud application demonstrating basic statistics for univariate data with interval uncertainties
Limited information probabilistic risk analysis
Collaboration for paper reviewing methods for PRAs when information is in short supply
Loss aversion
Why do humans hate losses more than they love gains?
Loss aversion in humans
Papers on the psychological mechanisms and evolutionary origin of the loss aversion
Ludic elicitation
Collaboration to develop games that can replace questionnaires
Mixing good data with bad
A paper on whether collecting imprecise data can worsen the overall uncertainty of statistical estimates
Montauk symposium on risk communication
An NSF-sponsored meeting on evolutionary, anthropological and psychological issues in communicating risk and uncertainty
NASA Uncertainty Challenge Problems
[INACTIVE] Our solutions to the Uncertainty Challenge problems proffered by Crespo et al. at NASA
Nuclear energy risk analysis
Two-hour introductory lecture on risk analysis for the nuclear energy students in the GREEN CDT
Numerical hedging
Roundup of research on hedge words that modify numerical expressions
P-box papers
Some articles coauthored on p-boxes and probability bounds analysis, organized by topic
pbox.r blog
Blog for developers and users of the R package pbox.r implementing interval and p-box arithmetic in R
PRA with hardly any data
Day-long tutorial on developing a probabilistic risk analysis when little or no empirical data are available
PRA with hardly any data
Archive of slides used during the tutorials "PRA with hardly any data"
Probability bounds analysis
Wikipedia article on computing with probability boxes and applications in science and engineering
Probability box
Wikipedia article on a computationally convenient characterization of uncertain numbers
Privacy project
NIH SBIR project to anonymize patient data that reasonably protects privacy but best preserves informativeness for research
Puffin: pre-compiler for automating uncertainty analysis
Uncertainty is too important to be left to analysts (part of the DigiTwin project funded by EPSRC)
Quick Bayes
Confidence boxes can have both a Bayesian interpretation and frequentist statistical performance
Rare and unseen events
Estimating risk of rare and not-yet-seen events
Ravnoprochnost
Collaboration on the ravnoprochnost paper(s)
Regulation compliance
Tiered strategies for demonstrating compliance with regulatory requirements
Regulatory economics and risk assessment
Roundup of papers from the NSF project comparing regulatory economics and risk assessment
Reliability uncertainty with confidence boxes
Collaboration to use c-boxes to assess uncertainty in reliability analyses
Resilience under uncertainty
Resilience is stability to, or speedy recovery from, unknown perturbations yet to come
Risk Calc software
Description of the commercial software RAMAS Risk Calc from Applied Biomathematics
Risk in medicine
Workshop with the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty and the Wolfson Centre for Personalized Medicine
Robust Bayes
Source libraries for robust Bayes analysis based on numerical and conjugacy methods
Robust Bayes analysis
Wikipedia article on Bayesian sensitivity analysis, also known as robust Bayes analysis
Smarter mobility network
Public face of the Smarter Mobility project
Strategies for risk communication: evolution, evidence and experience
Conference on the implications of risk perception, neuroscience, and the evolutionary social sciences for risk communication
Uncertainty analysis
General topics in uncertainty analysis and the internal DAWS UQ project website
Uncertainty Calculus
MDA project to develop a framework for general calculations respecting epistemic and aleatory uncertainty
Uncertainty in emergency medicine
How can emergency medicine be improved by proper appreciation of measurement uncertainty?
Uncertainty logic
How estimation and planning with Boolean logic in fault and event trees changes under uncertainty
Uncertainty projection in engineered systems
Roundup of the reports delivered to the Sandia Epistemic Uncertainty project
Workshop on validation of uncertain ecological models with imprecise data
Announcement and materials for a workshop at Centre Interfacultaire Bernoulli
DigiTwin project internal site
Working collaboration page for the DigiTwin project
Number class
Augmented scheme for a class definition for uncertain numbers
Characterizing distributions
Collaboration on estimation methods in risk analysis
Smarter mobility collaboration hub
Proposal for smarter mobility to help all countries avoid or leapfrog vehicular carnage