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Research Details

In this era of uncertainty, scenario planning has been used as an approach to do strategic planning to unveil different possibilities in the future. It is often used to give reasonable ideas to build a transparent process to achieve preferable futures from many possibilities. It is also intended to challenge the current mindset by exploring the previously unknown aspects of the narratives.

The power of scenario planning is to capture the comprehensive possibilities in many details and accounts more explicitly for the complexity and uncertainty of the environment (Porter, 1985; Mintzberg, 1994; Gordon, 2013; Dean, 2019) and is seen as remarkable among other tools for strategic planning (Schoemaker et al. 1995). The method can be used for several purposes or projects, such as developing a business model canvas, business strategy, portfolio planning, specific policy development, persona identification, and crisis management (Vallet et al., 2020). Scenario planning has been used in previous studies, varying from the natural environment to the socio-technological development context that is often integrated with another methodology. Some studies have used scenario planning in land-use planning (Bonsu et al., 2017; Von Wirth et al., 2014), the communication industry (Tavana et al., 2021), business and management (Hidayatno et al., 2017), urban mobility and transportation planning (Vallet et al., 2020; Spickermann et al., 2020; Zahraei et al., 2019), and even for examining the integration between land use and transportation (Alvarez et al., 2021).

Research Roadmap

Different methods are also often combined with scenario planning in investigating the contexts mentioned earlier. System dynamics is one of the methods commonly used in complementing scenario planning. Hidayatno et al. (2017) utilized system dynamics to evaluate and analyze the scenarios, including their uncertainties, when implementing the scenario planning results. Another study by Von Wirth et al. (2014) used a formative scenario analysis, which also incorporated an analysis of the system feedback loop in coping with the relational complexity of the system. Tavana et al. (2021) applied causal modelling combined with a decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method in their scenario planning study in the communication industry. Zahraei et al. (2019) generated the scenario in their research by conducting a foresight study which assumed that an uncertain future was the product of today’s actions, not an extrapolation of predetermined trends and innovations. A study by Vallet et al. (2020) combined scenario planning with the personas method, then called the scenario person narrative method. On the other hand, Alvarez et al. (2021) generated their scenario-building narratives using an experimental approach. Lastly, Bonsu et al. (2017) combined collaborative learning with scenario analysis to conceptualize the methodology for multiple stakeholders’ joint decision-making in forest land-use planning.