~ 8.6 ~

Learning Targets

• I can simulate a real-world situation using a simple experiment that reflects the probability of the actual event.

Sometimes it is easier to estimate a probability by doing a simulation. A simulation is an experiment that approximates a situation in the real world. Simulations are useful when it is hard or time-consuming to gather enough information to estimate the probability of some event.

For example, imagine Andre has to transfer from one bus to another on the way to his music lesson. Most of the time he makes the transfer just fine, but sometimes the first bus is late and he misses the second bus. We could set up a simulation with slips of paper in a bag. Each paper is marked with a time when the first bus arrives at the transfer point. We select slips at random from the bag. After many trials, we calculate the fraction of the times that he missed the bus to estimate the probability that he will miss the bus on a given day.