Sunday April 19 2020

Winners or Losers - Worldwide Healthcare by Raymond Clough

In the next few weeks Brazil will explode with Covid 19 infections and deaths. The math is not beyond a high school Algebra student. Continuing throughout South and Central America the disruption to society will have implications not seen before in the Americas. Africa will be next where extreme poverty is the ‘normal life’ and reliable healthcare is non existent or at best sporadic. Worldwide twenty percent of the population is under lockdown yet many of the most vulnerable have no health care. More than 70 million persons have no place to live. The inability of governments to control political idologies, drought or famine results in religious persecution, racial discrimination, ideological conflict and wars. Tens of millions will die.

The death rate is calculated by dividing total deaths by the number of known cases and varies due to inaccurate reporting and population demographics. The unknow variables can be problematic in forecasting models. The death rate in Italy is about 13%, the US 4%, South Korea 2% and Germany 1.3%. Among the U.S. States, Michigan, is 7%, and Wyoming, is 0.7%.

The virus is here to stay causing infections and death unparalleled in modern times. The spread of the virus is certain and the continuing disruption of commerce and social life on Earth. What to do?

What you think? How the virus has affected you.

Raymond Clough

Raymond Clough April 15, 2020

In the Year 2020

Listening to the news on the radio and Youtube, I would be encouraged that all will work out.

Many of you know my optimistic attitude and humorous antics. I encourage you to read this article through to the end and visti my website for updates more information.

I’ve been studying Math and Science for many years, numbers do not lie. The United States is plummeting to an unparalleled economic depression. History repeats itself, you don’t need a PHD or be an author of numerous articles and books to understand the future. Nations and civilizations come and go. Business declines often start with real estate and construction or an industry that is subject to global competition. These industries employ less than 25% of the workforce which allows the decline into the rest economy to be manageable, thus a ‘trickle down’ effect. The affected government institutions employ methods to counter act the downward trend, Economics 101.

The Covid 19 outbreak has caused a near complete lock down of commerce worldwide. The Covid 19 stay home orders affect the retail sales industry, all schools, entertainment industry, restaurants and real estate. U.S. retail sales fell 8.7% in March, which has never happened in the past. The degeneration of sales is outpacing the previous record decline of 3.9% that took place in the recession of November 2008-09. Housing sales make up approximately 15% of the United States GDP, these sales in February and March dropped by 50%. Auto sales dropped 25.6%, clothing store sales collapsed by 50%. Restaurants reported a nearly 27% fall in revenue. The future unemployment estimates are upward of 35 % for this year. I am still an optimist.

Thursday I will give you the world view of Covid 19 infections and impacts from the health care perspective.

Raymond Clough