Thailand's Yearn for True Democracy

By Adam Marcello
June 8, 2023

Thailand has a history of military-backed coups and the overthrow of democratically elected governments. However, the surprising outcome of the 2023 Thai elections marks a potential turning point. The progressive Move Forward party emerged victorious, beating the more established but less liberal pro-democracy Pheu Thai Party in the elections.  This marks a new era in Thailand's political landscape, as a new and progressive party comes to the forefront and the military is under threat by the will of the people of Thailand.

For some context, Thailand has witnessed 13 successful coups since 1932, including two in the past 17 years. Thailand's tumultuous political history has been characterized by a recurrent pattern: democratic elections leading to the rise of civilian governments, followed by tensions with the military establishment, a coup and the establishment of a military-backed government, democratic elections, etc. This cycle has fueled frustration and disillusionment among the people, as civil liberties are curtailed and dissent suppressed under military rule.

In the surprising results of the 2023 Thai elections, pro-democracy parties won in a landslide as the people of Thailand resisted the military government and voted for democracy. The win of these democratic parties wasn’t the surprising part of the election however. The people of Thailand have always voted against the juntas in cycles as mentioned before. What was surprising however was the specific party they chose, the incredibly progressive Move Forward party, which came first place in the elections.

Most had expected the more established Pheu Thai Party to achieve first place in the elections, with its leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra becoming prime minister. Being the daughter and niece of two former prime ministers ousted in a 2006 and 2014 coup, respectively, she was expected to continue the legacy of the Shinawatra family, and in essence the Pheu Thai Party, the main opposition to the military, which had won every free election since 2001, broken only by military coups.

With the Move Forward party instead coming on top, Pita Limjaroenrat is now expected to become the new prime minister. Popular with young people, the party is incredibly progressive compared to other pro-democracy parties, having much more radical plans for the country. Its plans include reducing the military's power, government reform, constitutional changes, ending conscription, promoting freedom of speech, and legalizing same-sex marriage.

The victory of the Move Forward party carries a powerful message of resistance against the military regime and its entrenched influence. It signifies the people's yearning for a democratic system that upholds civil liberties and respects the will of the citizens. The election outcome reflects a powerful spirit of defiance, signaling that the Thai people will not be silenced or deterred in their pursuit of a democracy free from the corruptions of the military. It is also a symptom of an influx of a new generation of progressive youth wishing for dramatic change. Its a reflection of the themes of the elections, and how the Thai people are voicing their wishes for change and democracy in Thailand.

Despite this triumph, the risk of another military coup remains a concern. Pro-military factions and internal dissent pose significant challenges as the Move Forward party forges a coalition government with seven other pro-democracy parties. Thailand's history of military intervention in politics cannot be ignored, and there is a possibility that attempts could be made to prevent Pita Limjaroenrat from assuming the role of prime minister or undermine the progressive agenda of the party. “Pita could also be charged with an irregularity related to shares in a defunct media firm held by a family trust, which could disqualify him or his party from taking power,” according to Jintamas Saksornchai from Brookings.

There is another route the military could realistically take however, though it is a path that could lead to political deadlock and instability. The elections that took place in Thailand weren't deciding who would be prime minister, but for splitting the 500 seats of the Thai House of Representatives between parties. The people who won these seats will be the real people voting for who gets to be prime minister. It’s not just the lower house though; the people in the Thai senate will be voting as well. The problem is that all of the 250 Senators are appointed by the Royal Thai Military. “If they wish to overrule the Senate, that number must come from the lower chamber alone,” according to Zaheena Rasheed from Al Jazeera. Pita needs to win at least 376 votes, presumably all from the lower house alone. He is currently expected to win 310.

“If they don’t make it to 376, we will end up in a deadlock situation,” said Napon Jatsuripitak from Al Jazeera. “In two months time, when the voting for the speaker of the house and the prime minister take place, we could potentially see several rounds of voting where no one side gets to 376. And according to the Constitution, there’s no time limit [on the process].” This would restrict the pro-democracy parties from properly implementing and passing any reforms, and the military could hang on to its desperate grab for power.

Nevertheless, the resounding victory of the Move Forward party in the 2023 Thai elections marks a significant moment in Thailand's struggle against the influence of its military in its own government. The choice of a progressive party reflects the people's yearning for genuine democracy and an end to repression. This is the central theme of the elections, a vote for change. While challenges lie ahead for the new government and the threat of a military coup persists, the cycle of political instability and military rule can be broken. Perhaps one day the military will loosen its grip on Thai society and the establishment of a free democracy can finally take place.

Sources
Thailand's opposition won a landslide in elections. But will the military elite let them rule?

Thailand's victorious progressive Move Forward Party, 7 allies agree on coalition platform | AP News

Thailand’s election of the century

Thailand election: Will military elite let opposition take power? | Elections News | Al Jazeera