Deep learning is great for complex time-dependent regression problems, but we usually don't know how the input features cause the predicted targets. In this WP we study and design methods for explaining these types of deep neural models.
Participants
PI: Tian Theunissen (North-West University)
Stefan Lotz (South African National Space Agency, NITheCS Associate)
Marelie Davel (North-West University, NITheCS Associate)
Thipe Modipa (University of Limpopo, NITheCS Associate)
Randle Rabe (North-West University)
Stefan Schoombie (University of Cape Town)
Cleo Conacher (Stellenbosch University)
Isobel Kolbe (University of the Witwatersrand, NITheCS Associate)
MUST Deep Learning team, North-West University
Objectives
To develop and improve knowledge discovery techniques for the application of deep neural networks (DNNs) to scientific and engineering problems with complex, non-linear, and non-stationary temporal dynamics.
Activities and Methodology
Data with a temporal component is ubiquitous across the sciences, including engineering and finance. Application and research tasks are often formulated as problems with rich and complex dynamics such as strong nonlinear relationships between features, autocorrelation, variable and nonstationary time dependencies, phase transitions, and long-range inter-dependencies. Understanding these intricate patterns is a non-trivial but crucial task for researchers or practitioners looking to glean insight from data. While DNNs are capable of modelling complex non-linear interactions they are not necessarily interpretable. Building on existing techniques (that have largely focused on image classification problems), our aim is to develop the theory, techniques, and toolset to enable robust interpretation of deep time series models for knowledge discovery. Our focus will be on complex, multivariate tasks with intricate temporal dynamics between dependent and independent variables.
The main research activities will be to:
Rigorously define the class of problems we will consider in this WP, the models utilised to solve these, and what explainability or interpretability means in this context.
Development of a test bench environment for the construction of synthetic time series datasets with precisely controlled temporal dynamics and interactions between variables. This environment will be utilised to rigorously test interpretation techniques.
Evaluation and testing of existing interpretation techniques.
Development of novel interpretation methods. This will be a needs-based activity. If existing methods are found to be adequate there won’t be a need to develop new methods.
Development of a software tool kit (KnowIt) to incorporate the modeling and interpretation of time series problems. The aim is to release this toolkit to the wider community for research and modelling purposes.
Collaboration with different groups based on their needs and specific modelling requirements. By collaborating with scientists across various fields of research we gain insight into their unique modelling and interpretability requirements. The lessons learned here will feed back into our own research and toolkit development.
How can deep neural networks perform so well on unseen examples? In this work package we study the fundamental building blocks of deep learning.
Participants
PI: Marelie Davel, North-West University, NITheCS Associate
Stefan Lotz, SANSA (Associate)
Katherine Malan, UNISA (Associate)
Jonathan Shock, University of Cape Town (Associate)
Terence van Zyl, University of Johannesburg (Associate)
Anna Bosman, University of Pretoria
Devon Jarvis, University of Witwatersrand
Coenraad Mouton, University of Kiel, Germany
Randle Rabie, North-West University
Tian Theunissen, North-West University
Objective To understand and predict the ability of deep neural networks to perform well or poorly on unseen inputs.
Deep learning refers to a collection of machine learning tools, initially inspired by an early understanding of how the brain functions. These artificial neural networks have given rise to a plethora of complex, layered models able to process large amounts of data effectively. They are particularly effective in modelling large data sets of high-dimensional variables, interacting in complex ways, and form the driving force behind current AI innovations. While practically important, many open questions remain with regard to the underlying principles allowing these models to generalize to unseen inputs. Understanding these principles could lead to better models, less expensive training procedures, and a better understanding of where these models will perform well or poorly.
Deep learning holds tremendous potential for generating solutions to issues that are important and relevant in the South African context. This work package develops researchers with the skills and expertise required to enable them to design and adapt deep learning techniques, in collaboration with the international research community.
Activities and Methodology
Main activities:
Collaborative research
Training of postgraduate students and postdoctoral fellows
Hosting an annual ‘Deep Learning’ bootcamp supported via the North Node
Participation in and organisation of relevant workshops and conferences
Presenting results at high-impact venues
Building on existing research at collaborating institutions [1-5], this work package will focus on empirical approaches to investigating the characteristics of these networks. They will be probed from two perspectives: the characteristics of the input-output mapping, and characteristics of the internal representations created by inner structures of the models. The latter means that, rather than studying a layer representation (sample activations at a layer) as a single high-dimensional vector, individual units are analysed individually or in combination. Analysis approaches include sub-predictor interaction, clustering of representations and information theoretic approaches to the flow of information among units. Such approaches will be used to study specific phenomena, including models with different generalisation abilities, the double descent phenomenon and the smoothness bias.
Davel et al., ‘DNNs as layers of cooperating classifiers’, AAAI 2020.
Theunissen et al. ‘The missing margin: How sample corruption affects distance to the boundary in ANNs’, SACAIR 2021.
Bosman, Engelbrecht & Helbig, ‘Empirical Loss Landscape Analysis of Neural Network Activation Functions, GECCO Companion Conference 2023.
Mouton et al., ‘Is fragmentation a useful complexity measure’, Sci4DL workshop, NeurIPS 2024.
Mouton, Theunissen & Davel, ‘Input margins can predict generalization too’, AAAI 2024.
Human visualisation works great in two and three dimensions, but what to do if we have to visualise complex data in higher dimensions? This work package tackles this question with the use of biplots.
Participants
PI: Sugnet Lubbe, MuViSU, Stellenbosch University and NITheCS associate
Members of MuViSU (institutional associate of NITheCS) from
Stellenbosch University
North-West University
University of the Witwatersrand
University of the Free State
Sasol
Heineken
Erasmus University (Netherlands)
Wollongong University (Australia)
Universite De Moncton (Canada)
Vienna University of Technology (Austria)
University of Naples Federico II (Italy)
University of Campania “Luigi Vanvitelli” (Italy)
University of Thrace (Greece)
Universitat Pompeu Fabra (Spain)
University of Porto (Portugal)
Objectives
To expand the use of multi-dimensional visualisations to a broader range of different fields and develop new theory based on challenges encountered posed in applications. Experience has shown that the knowledge-flow goes both ways: application necessitates new theoretical developments; new theoretical developments lead to deeper insights.
Activities and Methodology
The package biplotEZ was published on CRAN in 2023 and new methods are still being added. Some of our MuViSU members are working closely with Prof Di Cook from Monash University in Australia. After a successful research visit in May 2025, three more R packages were published on CRAN: moveEZ, wideRhino and GPAbin. More applications currently under investigation are using biplots in official statistics taking sampling weights into account, dynamic visualisation of temporal or sequential changes in climate data, biplots to analyse linguistic patterns and visualising thermal and emissions performance of novel wood-burning cookstoves. In addition, an invitation has been sent to all Statistics Departments of South African Universities and Research Centres, as well as through the South African Statistical Association News for interested researchers to bring their applications and initiate collaboration
Analysis of complex multi-dimensional data is a fundamental skill across many scientific fields in this age of data excess. In this work package we investigate new statistical methods for the analysis of complex systems represented by multi-dimensional, heterogeneous datasets.
Participants
PI: Priyanka Nagar (Stellenbosch University, NITheCS Associate)
Andriette Bekker (University of Pretoria, NITheCS Associate)
Antonio Punzo (University of Catania, Italy)
Cristina Tortora (San Jose State University, United States)
In this work package, we develop advanced statistical frameworks to uncover hidden structures in complex data. By focusing on two core areas—directional statistics and model-based clustering—we tackle challenges posed by non-Euclidean and heterogeneous datasets, revealing patterns that standard methods cannot capture.
Objectives
The primary objective of this work package is to develop robust statistical frameworks for analysing complex data structures. Specifically, we aim to:
Construct frameworks for directional data on non-Euclidean manifolds, enabling accurate representation of cyclic and directional characteristics.
Advance model-based clustering techniques to address heterogeneity and anomalies in multi-dimensional datasets.
Integrate these approaches to produce flexible, interpretable, and scalable methodologies applicable across diverse scientific and industrial domains.
Activities and Methodology
This work package develops theoretical frameworks for modelling complex data structures. Due to the inherent complexity of nonlinear manifold datasets, our approach combines methodologies from two distinct subfields: directional statistics and model-based clustering.
In directional statistics, the focus is on data where observations represent directions or angles—a common occurrence in natural and physical sciences. These datasets lie on curved manifolds, making linear (traditional) techniques inadequate. We aim to construct statistical models that accurately capture the cyclic nature and directional characteristics, enabling robust inference for non-Euclidean data.
In model-based clustering, the emphasis is on heterogeneous, multi-dimensional datasets that often exhibit asymmetry, atypical, and missing values. We develop clustering techniques grounded in mixture models, which assume that observed data arises from a combination of underlying distributions. This approach yields interpretable cluster structures and robust parameter estimates, while also, in some cases, accounting for the uncertainty arising from incomplete data. By avoiding restrictive distributional assumptions and incorporating flexible modelling strategies, we aim to improve reliability and scalability in clustering complex systems.
Through these activities, the work package promotes methodological innovation, fosters research collaborations, and supports postgraduate training, ensuring that the resulting frameworks are applicable across diverse scientific and industrial domains.