What is here?
1) Embedded Google form used to submit forecasts.
2) Embedded spreadsheet showing submissions/verifications/standings.
3) The rules for the game.
You must be logged in to your NCSU Unity/Google account in order to use the submission form and see the results sheet!
Check the course Moodle page for today's Away Site!
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In order to familiarize ourselves with local weather and climate, we will forecast for RDU every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday during each contest. Since predicting our local weather isn't always challenging, we will also forecast for a second, "away" city determined each day by the TA.
For both sites, we will forecast for 24 hour periods running from 0600 UTC (1 AM EST) to 0600 UTC the next day for the away city. Forecasts are due on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday by 6:00 PM Eastern time (regardless of whether we're on standard or daylight time), unless otherwise announced.
Forecasts will comprise three parameters: maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and 24-hour liquid (equivalent) accumulation. All forecast temperatures will be in Fahrenheit (F). Submit liquid precipitation forecasts in inches, with a decimal point, tenths, and hundredths.
All forecasts are submitted online using the Google form above on this page. You may resubmit your forecast as many times as you like up until the deadline. The software will score only the most recent forecast.
Forecasts will be verified from METAR station reports. The values of record are taken from the 6-hourly 1xxxx group (high temperature in C), 2xxxx group (low temperature in C), and 6xxxx group (precipitation in hundrenths of an inch, where 60000 is a trace).
One error point will be assessed for each degree F the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts vary from observed values.
Precipitation error points will be calculated using the same method as the WxChallenge contest:
.4 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.00 - .10 inclusive
.3 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.11 to 0.25 inclusive
.2 points for each .01 of error in the verification range from 0.26 to 0.50 inclusive
.1 points for each .01 of error in the verification range over 0.50
This is NOT an absolute error range. The score depends where you are on the scale.
If a trace of precipitation verifies, it will be scored as 0.005" (this is different from WxChallenge), which means that a forecast of 0.00" or a forecast of 0.01" will both receive 0.2 error points. Trace values do not "add up" across 6 hour periods. If the reported 24 hour total is trace (i.e. never a report of >/= 0.01"), then the verification will be 0.005". If the reported 24 hour total is >/= 0.01", then the trace values are ignored.
Late and absent forecasts will be given the average class error plus five additional error points for each city.
