When WILL Covid-19 End?

Ziruo Zhan (G8)

Published Issue 4 2021-2022

Current Events

As the new Omicron COVID-19 variant rages through cities worldwide, people can’t help but wonder- “when will the pandemic end?” Many of us had expected, or had hoped, that the pandemic would have ended by early-2022. But with some schools going back to online learning, overwhelmed hospitals postponing select surgeries, and Costco selling out of toilet paper, this does not seem to be the case.

How Bad is Omicron?

Experts say that it is too early to determine whether Omicron is less lethal for the infected than previous variants, but it is very clear by now that it is spreading incredibly fast. Regardless of the true strength and lethality for individuals, the Omicron variant has definitely stated itself as a dangerous variant. It is causing enough damage due to it’s fast spread that healthcare institutions have become completely overwhelmed yet again, with cases worldwide currently in the millions.

Data in the top graph is from late 2021 to Jan 19, 2022. Major, never-seen-before spikes have been appearing since early December with cases doubling every day, matching with how the Omicron variant was first discovered in Canada in Quebec at the end of November. However, things seem to be looking up for Canada specifically with massive drops in daily cases since January began.

The data in the bottom graph to the left is from the beginning of the pandemic in Jan 24, 2020 to Jan 19, 2022. Similarly to the Canadian chart, massive spikes appear in early December from the Omicron variant. However, there are no signs of daily cases decreasing, and Omicron cases continue to spike day after day, cases increasing by the hundred thousands. The data shows no sign of recovery, as cases continue to spike without any breaks. While a few countries like Canada have individually begun to slow down their COVID-19 cases, looking at the issue globally, it is clear that COVID-19 is far from over, and the virus continues to devastate people and families by the millions.

Will It Ever End?

Some experts say that we could be seeing the peak of the current Omicron variant in mid-February, and that things might start improving from there. Others argue we could be looking at one of the longest pandemics we have seen in centuries. But generally, experts agree that what we are looking for now is when COVID-19 changes from a pandemic to an endemic, similar to the common cold or flu. A pandemic is defined as a worldwide disease, prevalent throughout the entire world. An endemic refers to disease natural and native to a place or population, in this case the entire human population.

The purpose a virus is assigned through its DNA is to make more copies of itself. It is in the best interest of a virus to use a host’s resources to make more of itself, and killing the host quickly is generally a bad idea and can cause the virus to die out. COVID-19 seems to be evolving to follow this, as the new Omicron variant makes it clear that the direction the virus is heading towards is to force us to coexist with it. This process could take years of mutation, but at least we know what the end of this will look like.