MAGS mock election: Greens lead the poll at 38.5%

The Greens lead The Roar's 2023 political poll, surpassing Labour, who dominated the 2020 MAGS poll results.

The Green Party leads the poll at 38.5%, surpassing Labour, who dominated at the last MAGS political poll in 2020. Lize Deng for The Roar.
By Hilarie Reid and Lize DengHilarie Reid is a staff writer at The Roar. She previously contributed towards "Meet Your Prefect Execs". Lize Deng is the executive editor at The Roar. He oversees all aspects of the publication's news reports and contributors. 25 October, 2023

38.5% of Mount Albert Grammar School students and faculty support the Green Party, according to The Roar’s political research poll conducted ahead of the 2023 General Election. Support for Labour and National are each at 19.9%, while The Opportunities Party (TOP) sits at 7.1%, followed by ACT at 6.3% and Te Pāti Māori at 4%.

This differs significantly from the 2023 General Election’s preliminary results, where National leads the polls at 38.99%, followed by Labour at 26.85%, and the Greens at 10.78%. 

The Roar distributed the anonymous survey via Google Classroom and email to over 3,200 students and faculty. The survey garnered 704 responses, of which 633 were completed and represented in the infographics. The Roar did not adjust the data for possible selection bias. 

Labour received overwhelming support at the last MAGS political poll, gaining 42.1% of votes. Green followed at 20%. Lize Deng for The Roar.

This year’s data reflects a significant shift in New Zealand politics over the past three years. A poll conducted before the 2020 General Election showed that 42.1% of MAGS students supported the Labour Party, firmly placing then-Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in the lead. Support for National in 2020 had dwindled to 10.7%, while far-right groups like New Conservative and Jamie-Lee Ross’s Advance Party received 7.4% and 6.5% of votes, respectively. 

These parties, along with the TEA Party, which gained 5.4% of votes in 2020, have all but disappeared in this year’s poll. However, ACT and Te Pāti Māori have grown significantly, with ACT enjoying a 125% increase in votes and Te Pāti Māori a 264% increase. Still, their MAGS support bases lag far behind the Greens.

Support for the Greens is reflected in the Mt Albert Electorate, with Ricardo Menendez March gaining a third of the votes--a remarkable result in what has traditionally been a Labour stronghold. Lize Deng for The Roar.

Weakening support for the major centrist parties reflects changing attitudes post-Covid. As New Zealanders face soaring cost of living and inflation, Labour can no longer rely on their Covid response, nor the personality-driven politics of Jacinda Ardern, to win voters. Labour’s decision to put climate change and social reforms on hold in favour of “core bread and butter issues'' has compelled voters to look for novel solutions in the Greens. This also explains the shift towards smaller parties on the right of the political spectrum, with ACT pushing for radical reform against National’s more moderate stance. Meanwhile, Winston Peters’s centrist New Zealand First falls into the 4.3% “Other” category alongside Legalise Cannabis, Women’s Rights, and the Democratic Alliance. 

Prime Minister and MP for Mt Albert Jacinda Ardern gained a vast majority in the 2020 MAGS political poll. Lize Deng for The Roar.

Growing support for the Greens is reflected in the Mt Albert electorate. Green MP Ricardo Menéndez March received a third of the votes (33.3%), followed by National’s Melissa Lee at 26.3% and Labour’s Helen White at 25%. This is a remarkable result in what has been a Labour stronghold since 1946. In the 2020 poll, Mt Albert MP and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern gained a vast majority of 66% of votes, followed by Daniel Reurich (16%) of the far-right New Conservatives, who propagated Covid-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation. 

Methodology

For its 2023 political poll, The Roar collected electronic responses through Google Forms the week before the 2023 General Election. Participants were required to sign in through their school-provided Google Accounts to ensure each individual only submitted one form. However, their account details and emails remained hidden, and their votes were completely anonymous. 

Individuals were asked to rate each party and each electoral candidate on a scale of 1 (worst) to 10 (best). The highest score recorded was counted as a vote. In the event of a tie, no vote was awarded. Of the 703 forms submitted, 633 forms were used in the analysis. 

The Roar did not adjust the data for selection bias. Year-13s are poorly represented in the polls. Lize Deng for The Roar. 

The form also recorded the participants’ year level to check for potential response bias. We found that Year-9s had the highest participation, while Year-13s were poorly represented in the poll. Staff represented 8.5% of the respondents. 

According to the survey, 85% of respondents are not of Māori descent, while 9.1% are of Māori descent and asked to be enrolled in the Māori Roll. The remaining 5.5% are of Māori descent but asked to be enrolled in the general roll.

Disclaimer: The Roar aims to publish a diverse body of work that reflect the MAGS student body. However, the opinions expressed in these articles are not necessarily endorsed by Mount Albert Grammar School. If you have any concerns, please submit a letter to the editor theroar@mail.com