Gold Looks Good As Recession Fears Grow

Neils Christensen Thursday July 19, 2018 15:00

(Kitco News) - While gold prices can still push lower in the near-term as surging momentum in the U.S. dollar dominates the market, one precious metals analyst says that investors should keep an eye on long-term fundamentals, particularly as the threat of a recession rises.

George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors

In an interview with Kitco News, George Milling-Stanley, head of gold investments at State Street Global Advisors, said that he doesn’t understand the recent price action in gold as the market is ignoring significant economic issues.

His comments come as gold prices have hit a new 12-month low with many analysts now watching critical support at $1,200 an ounce. August gold futures last traded at $1,222.30 an ounce, down nearly 0.46% on the day.

The precious metal has lost 10% since its downtrend started in April. The world's biggest gold-backed exhange traded product SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) has seen outflows of 77.19 metric tons from its gold holdings since its April highs.

Looming uncertainty throughout the marketplace, rising inflation and current economic conditions don’t justify gold’s lackluster performance, said Milling-Stanley. In particular, the growing threat of a recession is something worth watching closely, he said.

“We are still mired in a low and negative interest rate enviroment but what I am particularly worried about is that the yield curve is flattening and could eventually invert,” he said.

Milling-Stanley noted that a yield curve inversion, where short-term yields rise above long-term yields, has correctly predicted a recession seven times.

Currently, the spread between 2-year bond yields and 10-year bond yields is at 24 basis-points, the narrowest range in 11 years, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve.

“I would expect investment demand for gold to rebound if we slide into a recession and I think there is a significant chance of doing that,” he said.

However, Milling-Stanley acknowledged that recession fears are the farthest thing from investors’ minds as they are comfortable chasing rising equity markets.

“I can’t understand why people’s perception of risk seems to have ratcheted down quite significantly in the last few months,” he said. “Circumstances have not improved to the extent to where I would personally want to be taking on more risks. If anything, the circumstances have deteriorated with the continued rise in equities.”

There Are Pockets Of Strength In The Gold Market

Although the gold market has significantly deflated in the last three months, Milling-Stanley said that he sees signs of pent-up demand, especially among cost-conscious investors.

SPDR Shares Gold MiniShares (NYSE: GLDM) exchange-traded product, launched just last month with the lowest management fees in the marketplace at 18 basis points, has already seen its inflows increase by $44 million.

“To me, there are signs of hope in the way GLDM has been warmly embraced by investors and I think it is only a matter of time before we start to see flows back into GLD,” he said.

SPDR Shares Long Dollar Gold Trust (NYSE: GLDW), is another gold-backed product that could start to attract investor interest in the current environment, said Milling-Stanley.

He explained that the ETF was created to remove the influence of a strong U.S. dollar.

“Effectively investors are playing for their gold allocation in foreign currencies rather than in U.S. dollar,” he said. “Now, wehave the ideal environment for GLDW and I expect that this will attract some attention once investors face the reality that equities are not going to go up forever.”

As for what will bring investors back to the marketplace in a significant way, Milling-Stanley said that prices have to move higher. He added that investors need to be confident that the current downtrend is over.

Although gold has struggled in recent months, Milling-Stanley said that the market’s long-term potential remains intact.

“If you take the long view, then gold is still an investment that will help your risk-adjusted returns,” he said.

Alaska Has Aussie Miners' Attention


Jul 19, 2018Frazer Tabeart Managing Director, PolarX
Alaska has a reputation for being a safe, reliable jurisdiction, but mining during the winters can pose a challenge, said Frazer Tabeart, managing director of PolarX Ltd (ASX: PXX).
“Drilling in winter is difficult. We would typically, in our exploration phase, restrict our drilling activities to the May to October period,” Tabeart told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Noosa Mining & Exploration Conference in Australia.
Tabeart said that like in Yukon, there is currently a mining and exploration boom, especially since more Australian companies are now involved

All Eyes On $1,200 As Gold Loses Another 1%

Neils Christensen Thursday July 19, 2018 10:11

(Kitco News) - Another wave of selling pressure has hit the gold market, but analysts are starting to question just how much longer the current downtrend can continue. Many see the July 2017 low at $1,204 as a key line in the sand.

Gold is trading near fresh 12-month lows Thursday as investors continue to pile into the U.S. dollar. August gold futures last traded at $1,217.90 an ounce, down almost 1% on the day. The precious metal has lost nearly 10% in the last three months. Meanwhile, during the same period, the U.S. Dollar Index has risen 7% as it trades at a new 1-year high at 95.47 points.

While gold could have room to move lower in the near-term, many analysts say that this is the capitulation move they have been waiting for to clear the last of the sellers out of the marketplace.

Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures, said that he remains long-term bullish on gold and continues to see value at current levels.

“I look at this market and I don’t see anything that is going to keep gold at these levels for very long,’ he said. “I don’t see U.S. dollar strength forever. I believe that gold will be at $1,300 this fall.”

Fawad Razaqzada, technical Analyst at City Index, is also looking for a top in the U.S. dollar. He noted that most of the good news like higher U.S. interest rates and positive economic growth has been priced into markets.

“Because of the U.S., my outlook on gold remains bearish,” he said. “But a short-squeeze rally is growing and could be just around the corner. I don’t think the U.S. dollar has room to move much higher.”

Baruch said that the one wild card for global currency markets and gold is the Chinese yuan. The yuan has been dropping sharply as the Chinese government looks to try and boost its economy. However, Baruch added that this policy might soon switch as the government realizes that is a weak currency policy is working efficiently.

In a report Thursday, Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, said that seasonal factors could continue to keep the pressure on gold. He added that he sees prices testing critical support at $1,200 an ounce in the near term.

“It is often during the late summer months when investors start buying again. Seasonal tendencies suggest the price still has another month to find levels with which to build a base,” he said. “As long as bulls hold the line steady above $1200, we may see a mean reversion play out towards the 200-day moving average.”

Razaqzada said that he is out of the gold market for now until he sees prices rally above $1,236 an ounce, which he considers a critical near-term resistance.

“I want to see signs that sellers are trapped that they can’t push the price lower and are forced to sell at higher prices,” he said.

Is The Next Big Gold Discovery In Australia?


Jul 18, 2018Joe Mazumdar Geologist & Analyst, Exploration Insights
It may be difficult for another large, high quality deposit to be discovered in Australia anytime soon, as the saturated exploration market and large number of miners operating in the continent means that such a deposit would have already turned up, said Joe Mazumdar, co-editor of Exploration Insights.
“I think it’s more difficult to find that kind of deposit in Australia and Canada. It’s got to be undercover… because of the amount of people that have already been here working on these kinds of deposits,” Mazumdar told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Noosa Mining & Exploration Investment Conference.
Mazumdar noted that in today’s conditions, it’s easier find a deposit that is lower grade.
“You can make a lower grade deposit work [in Australia] because you’ve got better infrastructure than a more infrastructure-challenged country,” he said

Gold Technical Analysis: Looks to stage a modest recovery amid highly oversold conditions

JULY 19, 2018 10:33 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• After breaking the December lows support, near the $1240-38 region, the precious metal continued with its steep decline and touched a fresh one-year low on Thursday.

• The ongoing USD upsurge wrecked everything across the board and was seen as one of the key factors smashing dollar-denominated commodities, including gold.

• The bearish pressure now seems to have abated around $1212 level, with further support beneath seen at July 2017 low level of $1204.85 ahead of the $1200 handle.

• Meanwhile, highly oversold conditions on hourly/daily/weekly charts warrant some near-term consolidation or a modest short-covering bounce.

Gold daily chart

Spot rate: $1217.59

Daily High: $1228.54

Daily Low: $1211.46

Trend: prospects for a minor bounce

Resistance

R1: $1222 (horizontal zone)

R2: $1225 (50-period SMA H1)

R3: $1229 (overnight swing high)

Support

S1: $1211 (one-year low set earlier today)

S2: $1205 (July 2017 swing low)

S3: $1200 (round figure mark)

Gold pulls away from 12-month lows, steadies near $1225

JULY 18, 2018 12:03 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Wall Street records modest gains in the first half of the session.

US Dollar Index fails to stay above the 95 mark.

Technical indicators show oversold readings.

Following yesterday's sharp fall, the XAU/USD pair started the day on a negative note and extended its losses to its lowest level since July 2017 at $1220. However, with a fresh selling wave felt in the NA session, the pair retraced a portion of its daily losses and was last seen trading at $1225, where it was down 0.17% on the day.

The pair's price action seems to be driven by the greenback valuation on Wednesday. Earlier today, fueled by the losses witnessed in the EUR/USD and the GBP/USD pairs, the US Dollar Index rose above the 95 mark to renew its highest level since June 28. However, the index reversed its course in the last hours after the data from the U.S. showed a 12.3% and a 2.2% contraction in housing starts and building permits respectively. At the moment, the DXY is sticking to small daily gains moving sideways near 94.90.

In the meantime, the pair's recovery gains seem to stay limited as the relatively positive market sentiment in the second half of the day don't allow the demand for safe-havens to increase. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.25% while the S&P 500 was adding 0.15%.

Later in the session, the Fed is going to publish its Beige Book, which provides a broad picture of the health of the economy. Investors will be paying a close attention to any remarks regarding rising concerns over Trump administration's trade policy and the buck's reaction to the publication could be the next catalyst for the pair.

Technical outlook

Despite this recent recovery, both the CCI and the RSI indicators on the daily chart remain in the oversold territory, suggesting that the pair could extend its technical recovery before the next leg down. On the downside, the initial support aligns at $1220 (daily low), $1207 (Jul. 7, 2017, low) and $1200 (psychological level). On the upside, resistances align at $1230 (daily high), $1240 (Jul. 17 opening level) and $1248 (20-DMA).

Gold risk reversals hit fresh 7-month low as on put demand

JULY 17, 2018 10:13 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold is losing its shine, having hit a one year low yesterday.

The demand for bearish bets (put options) continues to rise, risk reversals hit fresh 7-month low.

Currently, gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $1,228, having hit a one year low of $1,226 earlier today.

The yellow metal ran into offers during the overnight trade and fell below the key support of $1,234 (50-month MA) as Fed’s Powell’s Senate testimony was mostly upbeat, driven by positive trends in labor market, inflation and economic growth.

The Fed head added words “for now” while discussing Fed’s plans to gradually raise interest rates, to indicate that the central bank is not on autopilot. However, the caveat failed to put a bid under the yellow metal.

Further, the solid demand for gold puts indicates the investors are likely expecting a deeper drop in the safe haven yellow metal.

At press time, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals are being paid at -0.8 XAU puts – the lowest level since December 22. The negative number indicates the implied volatility premium

(or demand) for gold puts is higher than that of gold calls.

Gold Technical Levels

Resistance: $1,234 (50-month MA), $1,245 (10-day MA), $1,247 (200-hour MA)

Support: $1,226 (overnight low), $1,214 (May 2017 low), $1,200 (psychological level)

Gold Prices Steady As Dollar Firms After Fed Comments

Reuters Tuesday July 17, 2018 22:17

BENGALURU, July 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices on Wednesday held steady near a one-year low hit in the previous session, as the dollar firmed after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's U.S. economic outlook reinforced views the central bank is on track to steadily hike interest rates.

FUNDAMENTALS

* Spot gold was largely unchanged at $1,227.16 an ounce at 0047 GMT. On Tuesday, it fell 1 percent and hit its lowest since last July at $1,225.58.

* U.S. gold futures for August delivery were little changed at $1,227 an ounce.

* The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was up 0.1 percent at 95.037.

* The Fed's Powell said on Tuesday he sees the United States on course for years more of steady growth, but was challenged in a congressional hearing by senators worried the Trump administration's trade policies were already damaging businesses in their districts.

* With the U.S. economy firing on all cylinders, the Fed should ease away from monetary policy accommodation and move interest rates up far enough to prevent unwanted inflation but not so fast that a recession ensues, another U.S. central banker said Tuesday.

* U.S. industrial production increased in June, boosted by a sharp rebound in manufacturing and further gains in mining output, the latest sign of robust economic growth in the second quarter.

* U.S. President Trump tried on Tuesday to calm a storm over his failure to hold Russian President Vladimir Putin accountable for meddling in the 2016 U.S. election, saying he misspoke in a joint news conference in Helsinki.

* Japan and the European Union signed a wide-ranging free trade deal on Tuesday that both sides hope will act as a counterweight to the protectionist forces unleashed by President Trump.

* British Prime Minister Theresa May narrowly avoided a defeat in parliament at the hands of pro-EU lawmakers from her own party on Tuesday, fending off a rebellion that had threatened to deepen a crisis over her Brexit strategy.

* Iran has filed a lawsuit against the United States alleging that Washington's decision in May to impose sanctions after pulling out of a nuclear deal violates a 1955 treaty between the two countries, the International Court of Justice said on Tuesday.

* Azerbaijan's top gold producer, Anglo Asian Mining, said on Tuesday it had increased its gold production by 43 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2018 to 33,255 ounces from 23,218 ounces in the same period last year.

* South Africa's Anglo American Platinum has invested $100 million in two venture capital funds focused on increasing demand for platinum group metals, it said on Tuesday.

This Could Finally Be The Time To Buy Gold - BAML Survey

Anna Golubova Tuesday July 17, 2018 22:09

(Kitco News) - With gold trading below $1,230 an ounce, this could finally be the time to be buying the precious metal, with a record number of fund managers in the Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s (BAML) monthly survey saying that the metal is undervalued.

At least 17% of fund managers surveyed by BAML stated that gold was trading below its actual market worth, marking the highest level of votes on record for the survey, CNBC reported on Tuesday.

After analyzing survey results, BAML strategist said that investors who are looking for a “contrarian” position from the popular market trends should be paying attention to gold.

“We cyclically advise contrarian bears to position for 'peak profit, peak policy stimulus' theme via long gold, short U.S. tech,” BAML said in a note to clients.

The BAML survey also revealed that more than half of the 178 fund managers interviewed believe that the most popular space in the marketplace right now is the FAANG stocks — Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix and Alphabet's Google.

The bank’s comments come as gold continues to struggle, dropping more than 4% in the last 30 days alone.

On Tuesday, August Comex gold futures went through another major sell-off, plunging 1% following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upbeat comments about the U.S. economy.

August gold touched a fresh one-year low of $1,226.40 on Tuesday and then traded around $1,228, keeping all of the losses into Wednesday’s Asia market open.

When speaking in front of the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, Powell signaled that the central bank will continue to gradually raise interest rates while normalizing its monetary policy and reducing its balance sheet.

“The latest data suggest that economic growth in the second quarter was considerably stronger than in the first,” Powell said. “The solid pace of growth so far this year is based on several factors. Robust job gains, rising after-tax incomes, and optimism among households have lifted consumer spending in recent months.”

Gold Technical Analysis: Gold prints new 2018 low at $1,225.90/oz

JULY 17, 2018 1:43 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold lost about $12 as the metal reached a new 2018 low at $1,225.90 a troy ounce.

Gold is now consolidating the steep sell-off. Resistances to the upside are located near 1,232.00 consolidation area and 1,236.28 former 2018 low.

To the downside, bears objective is to reach the 1,220.00 level followed by the 1,204.00 July 10, 2017 swing low.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,227.00

Relative change: -1.11%

High: 1,245.01

Low: 1,225.90

Trend: Bearish

Resistance 1: 1,232.00 consolidation area

Resistance 2: 1,236.28 former 2018 low

Resistance 3: 1,241.50 intraday swing low

Resistance 4: 1,245.65 June 28 low

Resistance 5: 1,250.00 figure

Resistance 6: 1,254.23 June 28 high

Resistance 7: 1,260.00 figure

Resistance 8: 1,264.14 June 25 low

Resistance 9: 1,270.00 figure

Resistance 10: 1,286.10 May 21 low

Support 1: 1,225.90 current 2018 low

Support 2: 1,220.00 figure

Support 3: 1,204.00 July 10, 2017 swing low

REFILE-PRECIOUS-Gold edges up on softer dollar ahead of Fed testimony

Reuters Tuesday July 17, 2018 6:29 AM

* Focus turns to Powell's testimony for Fed policy outlook

* Spot gold to break support at $1,237/oz - technicals

* SPDR gold holdings down 0.15 pct on Monday By Maytaal Angel LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Gold edged up on Tuesday as the dollar dipped and most other markets were subdued before Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies to the U.S. Congress, though the precious metal was not far off a recent seven month low. Powell will likely reiterate the Fed's plan for gradual monetary policy tightening as he takes his upbeat view of the U.S. economy to Capitol Hill later this session. Markets will focus on his views on recent trade tensions, however. The dollar pared gains ahead of Powell's testimony, nudging away from a two-week high hit on Friday. The greenback has put in a solid performance this year amid the intensifying trade conflict.

"The problem here is even though you have safe haven factors that should in theory support gold, you're having them drive investors to the safe haven of the dollar. That's the biggest headwind for gold," said Nikos Kavalis, director at Metals Focus. A strong dollar tends to weigh ongold by making the dollar-priced metal costlier for non-U.S. investors.

Spot gold was up 0.2 percent at $1,243.34 an ounce at 1005 GMT. The precious metal has lost some 9 percent since April 11 and is down some 5 percent for the year. U.S. gold futures for August delivery were up 0.3 percent at $1,243.40 an ounce.

The International Monetary Fund warned on Monday that escalating trade conflicts following U.S. tariff actions threaten to depress medium-term growth prospects. The comments came as China reported slower growth in the second quarter, though Beijing said on Tuesday it would not affect its 2018 growth target.

UBS economists lowered their estimates for Chinese growth on Tuesday to take into account trade war escalation. "If China is slowing down, there will be consequences to global commodity consumption and that's going to drag gold down as well," said Richard Xu, a fund manager at China's biggest gold exchange-traded fund, HuaAn Gold.

"Investor appetite for gold is not very strong. Chinese gold ETF liquidity has dropped a lot these days so that means people do not see any major breakthrough in either direction."

Demand for gold in top consumer China has been weak as an ongoing trade war with United States has weakened the local currency. Spot gold is expected to break a support at $1,237 per ounce and fall to the next support at $1,226, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. Holdings in SPDR Gold Trust , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 0.15 percent to 794.01 tonnes on Monday. Silver rose 0.4 percent to $15.81 an ounce, platinum was flat at $822.24 an ounce and palladium was flat at $916.

Gold climbs to fresh session tops, around $1245 level

JULY 17, 2018 5:23 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A follow-through USD weakness helps regain positive traction.

• Cautious mood underpins safe-haven demand and remains supportive.

• Fed rate hike expectations might keep a lid on any strong up-move.

Gold reversed an Asian session dip to $1237.50 area and has now moved back closer to previous session's swing high, around the $1245 region.

With investors looking past yesterday's upbeat US economic data – monthly retail sales and Empire State manufacturing index, the US Dollar bears were back in action on Tuesday and underpinned demand for dollar-denominated commodities – like gold.

This coupled with the prevalent cautious mood around equity markets provided an additional boost to the precious metal's safe-haven appeal and remained supportive of the positive momentum through the early European session.

It, however, remains to be seen if the uptick is backed by any genuine buying interest or would be looked upon as an opportunity to initiate fresh bearish positions amid firming Fed rate hike expectations, which tends to drive flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Hence, today's key focus would be on the Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, where investors will be looking for fresh clues over the central bank view on monetary policy and eventually position for the commodity's next leg of directional move.

Technical levels to watch

On a sustained move beyond the $1247 area, the metal is likely to accelerate the up-move towards $1252 horizontal level en-route $1258 supply zone. On the flip side, the $1240-38 zone now seems to have emerged as an immediate support, below which the fall could get extended towards 200-week SMA support near the $1234 region.

RERUN: Trump’s Tariffs Could Bring 1930s Style Depression

Jul 16, 2018John Doody
An escalating trade war could spiral out of control and bring the world to the brink of an economic collapse on the scale of the Great Depression of the 1930s, said John Doody, founder of Gold Stock Analyst.
“We’re going to get a replay, to some extent, of the 1930s episode where the U.S. put the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, imposed taxes on 20,000 imports, and basically made what was going to be a recession into a depression,” Doody told Kitco News.
Doody noted that while this worst case scenario is a potential, it is unlikely we will see this play out anytime soon as a more active Federal Reserve today would cut rates to even the economic scales.

Bitcoin Daily Chart Alert - Corrective Bounce Monday - July 16 Jim Wyckoff Monday July 16, 2018 08:16 (Kitco News) - Bitcoin-U.S. dollar prices are higher in early U.S. trading Monday, on a corrective rebound from recent selling pressure. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, more price gains this week would begin to suggest a bullish head-and-shoulders bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Stay tuned!

Gold edges lower toward $1240 to turn flat on the day

JULY 16, 2018 10:22 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Wall Street starts the day mixed on Monday.

US Dollar Index remains in the red near 94.20.

US 10-year T-bond yield adds more than 1%.

After erasing a little over $15, the troy ounce of the precious metal gathered strength and rose to $1245 before losing its traction in the second half of the day. As of writing, the pair was trading at $1241, virtually unchanged on the day.

The pair's price action on Monday seems to be driven by the greenback valuation. The US Dollar Index, which recorded modest gains to close the previous week near mid-94s, extended its downward correction to a fresh session low at 94.15. Although the index recovered some of its losses following the macroeconomic data releases from the United States it failed to preserve its momentum and was last seen at 94.20, where it was down 0.25% on the day.

Retail sales in the U.S. increased by 0.5% in June following May's 1.3% growth and met the market expectations. On the other hand, the Empire State Manufacturing Index released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York retreated to 22.6 in July from 25 in June but beat the experts' estimate of 22.

Although the greenback is having a hard time finding demand, the pair's upside remains capped as the rising T-bond yields weigh on the traditional safe-havens such as gold. At the moment, the 10-year T-bond yield is up 1.22% at 2.866% while major equity indexes in the United States fluctuate in a tight range near their opening levels.

Technical levels to consider

A decisive break above $1245 (daily high) could open the door to $1252 (20-DMA) ahead of $1265 (Jul. 9 high). On the downside, supports could be seen at $1240 (Jul. 2 low/daily low), $1234 (200-WMA) and $1228 (Jul. 16, 2017, low).

Gold Prices On-Track for Lowest Settlement in 2-Weeks; Metal Prices Steady

JULY 13, 2018 2:01 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices hovered above fresh seven-month lows Friday, as a weaker dollar failed to lift sentiment, while other metals steadied as trade war concerns eased.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $5.30, or 0.43%, to $1,241.30 a troy ounce.

Gold prices resumed their decline and remained on track for their lowest settlement in nearly two weeks as easing trade-war concerns offset the dollar’s retreat against its rivals from a two-week high.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.01% to 94.58, but remained well below its intraday of high of 95.00.

Dollar-denominated commodities such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar. A rise in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency, reducing demand for the precious metal.

Downside momentum in other metals was somewhat limited by easing trade-war concerns as traders brushed off the possibility of an uptick in China-U.S. trade tensions, despite data showing China’s surplus with the U.S. rose to record $29 billion.

The sharp uptick in exports, which significantly boosted the surplus, was said to be unsustainable, and likely the result of Chinese exporters rushing shipments before U.S. tariffs went into effect in the first week of July.

Copper prices, fell 0.07% to $2.78, while zinc prices settled 0.08% lower at 2,581.25

Aluminium prices fell 0.17% to 2,039.75, while Nickel futures settled nearly 2% lower at 13,955.00.

Silver futures fell 0.98% to $15.82 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 1.89% to $830.40 to near 10-year lows on expectations of lower demand from the automotive sector amid potential tariffs that could hurt carmakers.

Gold Could Fall To $1,200 In the Very Near Term - BNP's Tchilinguirian

Neils Christensen Thursday July 12, 2018 12:11

(Kitco News) - Gold investors could see more pain in their portfolio as one commodity strategist sees further downside potential for the yellow metal.

Gold investors could see more pain in their portfolio as one commodity strategist sees further downside potential for the yellow metal.

In an email comment to Kitco News, Harry Tchilinguirian, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas said that he sees gold falling closer to $1,200 an ounce in the “very near term.”

His comments come as the gold market finds some bargain hunting after Wednesday’s nearly 1% drop. However, despite the small recovery, gold prices continue to hover near its recent 12-month lows. August gold futures last traded at $1,247.50 an ounce, up 0.24% on the day.

Gold, which is seen as a traditional hedge against price pressures, has shown little interest in the latest inflation data, which hit their highest level in six years, according to the June Consumer Price Index. Tchilinguirian said in his comment that inflation pressures aren’t helping gold because the inflation numbers support higher interest rates.

“When it comes to inflation, market measures like the 5 and 10-year breakevens have, after increasing at the end of 2017, been by and large fairly stable year to date,” he said. “So the perspective of rising nominal rates with stable inflation would suggest higher real interest rates, which in turn only raise the opportunity cost of holding gold.”

However, it’s not just rising interest rates. Tchilinguirian said that geopolitical uncertainty and a growing global trade war is also supporting the U.S. dollar, adding further headwinds to gold.

“Gold has come under heavy pressure with the rapid appreciation of the US dollar since April. I am inclined to think that there is potential for further US dollar appreciation, in particular, if sentiment were to turn sour for emerging markets in the context of a US/China trade war,” he said.

The U.S. dollar was one of the only global assets that came out unscathed in Wednesday’s across-the-board selloff in financial markets. The U.S. government spooked global investors when it threatened to impose another $250 billion in tariffs on imported Chinese goods.

Not only is Tchilinguirian bearish on gold but he said even a drop to $1,200 an ounce might not attract enough investors back to the marketplace to reverse the current downtrend.

Gold To See “Fireworks” From Trade War


Jul 12, 2018Guest(s): Gary Wagner
Gold has not been acting like a proper safe haven due to the fact that a full-blown trade war has not yet been triggered, but this may change once tariffs are implemented, said Gary Wagner, editor of the GoldForecast.com.
“We are in a trade dispute, we haven’t morphed into a full-blown trade war. Once tariffs are actually imposed, that will be a different story, and we might see some fireworks at that point,” Wagner told Kitco News.
Wagner noted that should gold fall below $1,240 an ounce, a level $30 lower should be expected.

Barrick Gold 2Q Output Comparable To 1Q; Copper Guidance Trimmed

Allen Sykora Wednesday July 11, 2018 20:01

(Kitco News) - Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE, TSX: ABX) late Wednesday reported that second-quarter gold production was roughly in line with the first quarter, although output was down year-on-year.

The company maintained full-year gold-output guidance but trimmed its forecast for copper production in 2018.

Based on preliminary data, the world’s largest gold producer said it turned out 1.07 million ounces of gold and 83 million pounds of copper in the second quarter. First-quarter output was at 1.05 million gold ounces and 85 million pounds of copper.

However, output was down from the 1.43 ounces of gold reported in Barrick’s earnings report for the second quarter of 2017. The most notable decline came from Barrick Nevada, where there was a scheduled maintenance shutdown at the roaster.

Barrick reported preliminary second-quarter sales of 1.04 million ounces of gold and 74 million pounds of copper. The average April-June market price for gold was $1,306 per ounce, while the average for copper was $3.12 per pound, Barrick said.

All-in sustaining costs per ounce were approximately 5% to 7% percent higher than the first quarter mainly due to the planned maintenance at Barrick Nevada and the Pueblo Viejo autoclaves, the company said.

Barrick maintained 2018 consolidated production guidance of 4.5 million to 5 million gold ounces, as well as cost guidance. All-in sustaining costs are projected at $765 to $815 per ounce.

“We expect gold production to be higher in the second half of the year following the completion of major planned maintenance shutdowns in the first half of 2018, along with reduced development and stripping in the second half of the year,” Barrick said. “Costs are expected to be lower in the second half of 2018, reflecting increased production from our lower-cost operations at Barrick Nevada and Pueblo Viejo, with higher grades and increased throughput following the completion of scheduled maintenance.”

The company added that processing has been restored at the Porgera Joint Venture earlier than initial expectations, following the earthquake that struck Papua New Guinea in late February.

Meanwhile, Barrick trimmed its 2018 copper-production guidance to a range of 345 million to 410 million pounds from the earlier guidance of 385 million to 450 million pounds. Projected costs were guided higher, including all-in sustaining costs of $2.30 to $2.60 per pound.

“The revisions to our copper production and cost guidance primarily reflect operational challenges at Lumwana in the first half of the year,” Barrick said. “We expect higher production at Lumwana in the second half of 2018, driven by a steady improvement in grade and improved crusher reliability.”

Barrick is scheduled to report complete operating and financial results for the second quarter on July 25.

Peak Gold Triggers Flows Into Gold Stocks –

Frank HolmesJul 11, 2018Frank Holmes CEO, U.S. Global Investors
Investment capital is flowing into gold stocks and Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Investors, said that this may be due to peak gold.
“What we’re witnessing now is [money] going into gold stock ETFs,” Holmes told Kitco News.
Holmes said that there is currently no breakthrough technology like there was for fracking in the mining industry, so gold production is likely to continue to plateau and eventually decline, according to the theory of peak gold.
He added that investors are likely to see gold stocks move up as more capital continues to flow in, which is usually a precursor to the bullion rallying.

Gold Down As Raw Commodities Sink Amid U.S.-China Trade War

Jim Wyckoff Wednesday July 11, 2018 08:42

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are moderately lower in early U.S. trading Wednesday, pressured in part by another volley of U.S. trade sanctions levied against China that has prompted a sell-off in many raw commodity markets. A higher U.S. dollar index today is also a negative for the precious metals markets. August gold futures were last down $5.10 an ounce at $1,250.20. July Comex silver was last down $0.142 at $15.945 an ounce.

The important U.S. economic data due out this week includes the just-released producer price index for June, which came in at up 0.3% from May, which was hotter than the 2.0% rise that was forecast. The data did not have a significant impact on the precious metals or other markets. The June CPI report on Thursday is also seen up 0.2% from May.

World stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. has targeted China with 10% tariffs on another $200 billion in Chinese product imports, and China again responded with another threat to retaliate. The U.S.-China trade war has at least temporarily cast a pall over world equity markets at mid-week.

U.S. President Trump is in Europe today meeting with European leaders, with a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin later this week. The marketplace will watch Trump’s meetings closely, as the U.S. president has had harsh words for European leaders regarding trade and their lack of financial support for NATO.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $73.50 a barrel. Libyan oil exports are hitting the world market again, after being disrupted by political violence, and that’s putting some pressure on crude today.

Meantime, the U.S. dollar index is higher on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, monthly wholesale trade and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Technically, gold bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage amid a price downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $1,287.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at $1,230.00. First resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of $1,261.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,266.90. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,247.70 and then at last week’s low of $1,238.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

September silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $16.565 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $15.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $16.11 and then at this week’s high of $16.26. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $15.915 and then at last week’s low of $15.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal back to the drawing board near $1,255.00/oz

JULY 10, 2018 4:23 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold is trading in a tight range between 1,254.00 and $1,256.00 a troy ounce where it spent most of its time last week.

Gold is struggling to find a clear direction as the metal is in a consolidation phase after the strong decline of the last weeks.

As gold failed to the downside at 1,247.00, in the near-term the market might try to retest the extremes of the week’s range to the upside near 1,260.00 and 1,264.00.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,255.67

Relative change: -0.15%

High: 1,260.31

Low: 1,247.00

Trend: Neutral

Resistance 1: 1,260.00 figure

Resistance 2: 1,264.14 June 25 low

Resistance 3: 1,270.00 figure

Resistance 4: 1286.10 May 21 low

Support 1: 1,254.23 June 28 high

Support 2: 1,250.00 figure

Support 3: 1,245.65 June 28 low

Support 4: 1,237.60 current 2018 low

Support 5: 1,204.00 July 10, 2017 swing low

Gold rebounds sharply from 1-week lows; will it sustain?

JULY 10, 2018 9:43 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A combination of factors kept exerting downward pressure on Tuesday.

• Short-covering helps rebound sharply and recover a major part of early losses.

Gold continued losing ground through the mid-European session and tumbled to a one-week low in the last hour, albeit quickly recovered thereafter.

The precious metal extended overnight retracement slide from near two-week tops and was further weighed down by a combination of factors. Resurgent US Dollar demand was seen as one of the key factors prompting some fresh selling around dollar-denominated commodities – like gold.

This coupled with positive trading sentiment around European equity markets, pointing to improving risk appetite, further dented the precious metal's safe-haven appeal. The risk-on mood was reinforced by an uptick in the US Treasury bond yields, which exerted some additional downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

Meanwhile, the latest leg of sharp rebound over the past hour or so lacked any obvious catalyst and hence, it remains to be seen if the up-move is backed by any genuine buying or is solely led by some short-covering amid absent market moving economic releases from the US.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent up-move is likely to confront fresh supply near $1260 level, above which the commodity is likely to aim back towards retesting overnight swing high resistance near the $1265-66 region.

On the flip side, the $1247-46 region might continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the metal vulnerable to slide back towards challenging YTD lows support near the $1238 area.

Gold At $1,300 Is On The Horizon By Q4 — TD Securities

Anna Golubova Monday July 09, 2018 20:21

Kitco News - After nearing one-year lows in June, gold is looking to get its groove back and head upwards during the rest of the summer months, according to TD Securities, which cites the lack of fuel in trade war rhetoric and a weaker U.S. dollar as supporting factors for the metal.

“The yellow metal is projected to move past $1,270/oz during the summer months. Indeed, we would not be surprised to see the yellow metal move into $1,300/oz in the final three months of 2018,” said TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek in a report published on Monday.

Gold already saw its recovery begin last week, noted Melek, with August Comex gold futures rising from $1,240 an ounce towards $1,260s. The August futures were last seen trading at $1,259.50, down 0.01% on the day.

“A weaker USD, poor appetite for risk assets and lower yields on the long end of the curve were the key factors driving the yellow metal higher last week,” Melek wrote. “An ever falter yield curve, which gave rise to inversion speculation and concern that the current U.S. economic expansion may be coming to an end, was another strong reason why gold has performed relatively well in recent days.”

In the short term, some market speculators are likely to reel back their hawkish outlook around the Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening, which will be supportive of gold prices, the report highlighted.

Strengthening emerging-market currencies will also play a key role in boosting gold this summer, Melek added.

“It is likely that many gold market participants may be walking back their somewhat lofty Fed rate hike expectations, which along with angst in the emerging economies and trade concerns, should provide support to their currencies, which in our opinion have been instrumental in placing a pall on gold,” he said.

In the meantime, Melek expects the U.S. dollar’s rally to take a step back, as the European Central Bank (ECB) gets ready to raise rates — another good sign for gold.

With no serious escalation in trade war rhetoric between the U.S. and China this week, investors are likely to shift their attention to macroeconomic data, the bank’s commodity strategist Daniel Ghali pointed out.

“Inflation data in the U.S. will likely be in the spotlight for precious metal traders with CPI and PPI scheduled for release, but in addition to the macro data, market participants will likely be watching the NATO summit as President Trump travels to Europe,” Ghali wrote.

“Given the recent equity market angst and talk of a trade-driven slowdown in global growth, traders could interpret weakness in inflation as a sign that the Fed could still walk back from their aggressive hiking rhetoric,” Ghali explained.

Gold: bears back in control, eyes on the 10-D SMA at $1,253

JULY 9, 2018 1:53 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

On dollar strength, gold has turned sharply lower from the start of the week's opening bid.

On the wider picture, gold has struggled in the middle of a trade spat between the US and China.

Gold has turned sharply lower from the start of the week's opening bid, ($1,266.05 the high, en-route to the 21-D SMA at $1,269.19). The move has come on the back of demand for the US dollar on Monday, strength across the board and between a range in the DXY of 93.7130-94.1880, currently +0.20% at 94.1510. Spot gold is currently oscillating around $1,258 and has made a recent low of $1,254.78.

Gold firmed at the start of the week in Asian and European markets even as stocks started out well. However, this was due to a retreat in the U.S. dollar, post nonfarm payrolls, which was helping to put the metal on track to notch its strongest level in roughly two weeks. There was a turn around in the dollar as NY got going, with the DXY bid up from 93.71 lows – (worth noting that the index has made gains in each of the last three months, while gold futures fell in April, May and June).

All eyes will turn to The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO)

On the wider picture, gold has struggled in the middle of a trade spat between the US and China where investors have been concerned that Beijing’s economy could be adversely hurt already showing signs of decelerating in recent months. Demand for gold has slowed perhaps in some parts down to China, as being one of the biggest buyers in metals, including gold. All eyes will turn to The North Atlantic Treaty Organization, (NATO), meeting coming up this week, whereby gold could catch a safe haven bid as we wait to see what Trump will come out with. However, for the meantime, the dollar is under demand on Central Bank divergences following the goldilocks nonfarm payrolls report and repositioning.

Gold levels

Pressures remain to the downside with the golden death cross playing out, (the 50-D SMA moving average for gold prices is falling below its longer-term 200-D SMA moving average at 1,303). The 10-D SMA comes at 1253 which guards a break to 1236/40 support guarding 1,213. On the flipside, key resistances above 1,243 look to be the 1,260 line, 1,268, 1,276 (Jun. 20 high) ahead of 1,269 (21-D SMA), 1282 and 1300 (psychological level).

Gold Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness, Trade Threat

JULY 9, 2018 1:10 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices gained on Monday on a softer a dollar and threat of a full-blown trade war after US tariffs on $US34 billion worth of Chinese goods took effect on Friday, while China’s commerce ministry retaliated with 25 per cent tariffs on $US34 billion worth of US imports.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 0.32% to $1,259.80 a troy ounce by 1:30AM ET (05:30 GMT).

The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.15% to 93.62.

The dollar fell on Friday after data showed the US unemployment rate increased and wages grew less than forecast in June even as the economy created more jobs than expected.

The data showed average U.S. hourly earnings gained five cents, or 0.2% in June after increasing 0.3% in May.

Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls rise by a stronger-than-expected 213,000 in June, although its impact on currencies seem to be limited.

A weak US dollar tends to lift gold, making the greenback-priced metal cheaper for non-US investors.

“Traders are extremely cautious when it comes to gold. The intraday price-action has a bullish set-up and shows that the price has potential to test the level of $1US,280 in the coming days if the dollar weakness continues,” ThinkMarkets chief market analyst Naeem Aslam said.

Main St., Wall. St. Look For Higher Gold Prices

Allen Sykora Friday July 06, 2018 11:19

(Kitco News) - Wall Street and Main Street have both flipped from bearish to bullish short-term forecasts for gold prices, based on the Kitco News weekly survey.

Gold is headed for a small gain in a holiday-thinned week, with Canada Day and the U.S. Fourth of July both occurring in the same week. The metal held up Friday even though U.S. nonfarm payrolls came in slightly stronger than expectations, rising by 213,000 during June.

Sixteen market professionals took part in the survey. There were 11 votes, or 69%, calling for gold prices to rise. There were three votes, or 19%, calling for gold to fall, while two voters, or 12%, look for a sideways market.

Meanwhile, 808 voters responded in an online Main Street survey. A total of 449 respondents, or 56%, predicted that gold prices would be higher in a week. Another 231 voters, or 29%, said gold will fall, while 128, or 16%, see a sideways market.

Wall Street

Bullish 69%

Bearish 19%

Neutral 12%

VS

Main Street

Bullish 56%

Bearish 29%

Neutral 16%

For the trading week now winding down, the largest blocs of Wall Street (53%) and Main Street (46%) voters were bearish. Around 11 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up 0.1% for the week so far to $1,256.20 an ounce.

Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, sees potential for gold to rise to the 20-day moving average around $1,271 on ideas that the U.S. dollar may have put in a top. He also cited an “outside day” reversal higher for gold on a daily chart Monday.

“The dollar looks toppy to me,” he said, noting this fell below the 20-day average. “The jobs report should have been friendly for the dollar.”

Precious metals tend to move inversely to the U.S. currency.

“I’m looking for a little bounce,” said Ralph Preston, principal with Heritage West Financial. He cited the market’s ability to hold key chart support, including a double-bottom.

Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management,

suggested the widening tariff war should support gold, as well as uneasiness with stocks, leading some to take a “hedge position in gold.”

Sean Lusk, director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading, looks for gold to start trying to regain its footing as long as market does not fall through the recent lows near $1,238, thus avoiding further technical-chart selling.

“If we hold, seasonal buying will start to creep in as we move through July,” Lusk said.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group, predicted a bounce in gold after recent weakness that he said was largely due to a muscular U.S. dollar amid concerns about a trade war with China. By now, a trade war has already been factored into markets, at least to a certain extent, he continued.

“Now that the shots of the trade war have been fired, the markets will be less concerned,” he said. Further, he looks for physical demand for the metal to pick up and commented that the improving U.S. labor market could raise inflation expectations.

Meanwhile, Kevin Grady, president of Phoenix Futures and Options LLC, sees weakness in gold due to dollar strength and a view that U.S. jobs report for last month was strong enough to support continued monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve. He put support for gold around $1,230 to $1,231.

“Even with the trade wars, we see people running to the U.S. dollar as a safe haven,” Grady said. “That will hurt gold.”

Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, said he views the charts as bearish.

Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, described himself as neutral on gold for now.

“To me, it looks stuck in a $1,240 [to] $1,260 maybe $1,265 trading range,” Cieszynski said. “Neither the imposition of tariffs nor stronger U.S. nonfarm payrolls and trade data were able to kick the U.S. dollar and gold into gear. This suggests to me that these forces are offsetting each other, keeping gold stuck in its current trading range.”

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal holding above $1,250 ahead of NFP on Friday

JULY 5, 2018 5:03 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold has been holding on above $1,250 a troy ounce this Thursday as the metal is in its second day of consolidation after the $19 bull move of Wednesday.

Bulls have broken above the current bull flag and have found support at the 200-period simple moving average. However, they are not entirely out of the woods just as the US Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday is likely going to dictate whether gold will break above 1,260 or will retrace below the 1,250.00 level.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,257.40

Relative change: 0.02%

High: 1,259.80

Low: 1,251.00

Trend: Bullish above 1,250.00

Resistance 1: 1,260.00 figure

Resistance 2: 1,264.14 June 25 low

Resistance 3: 1,270.00 figure

Resistance 4: 1286.10 May 21 low

Support 1: 1,254.23 June 28 high

Support 2: 1,250.00 figure

Support 3: 1,245.65 last week’s low

Support 4: 1,237.60 current 2018 low

Support 5: 1,204.00 July 10, 2017 swing low

Gold falls modestly, trades below $1256 as US Dollar gains traction on FOMC minutes

JULY 5, 2018 2:43 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

The FOMC's statement doesn't offer any surprises.

US Dollar Index erases its daily losses to turn flat near 94.20.

Wall Street retraces upside, remains in the positive territory.

The XAU/SD pair recorded small losses after the USD started to gather strength on the back of the FOMC minutes. As of writing, the pair was trading at $1255.80, down around $1 on the day.

According to the FOMC's statement, the Committee sees further gradual increases in the policy rate would be consistent with the sustained economic expansion and repeats that it will continue to assess the realized and expected economic conditions relative to its full employment and 2% inflation targets. The US Dollar Index quickly erased its daily losses and turned flat near 94.20 but lacked a follow-through amid a lack of any new information on the monetary policy outlook.

Regarding the Trump administration's trade policy, Committee members voice their concerns over possible adverse effects of tariffs on the economic activity and future investment decisions. Furthermore, most participants noted that the uncertainty and risks associated with trade policy had intensified.

Major equity indexes in the U.S. reacted negatively to these comments and both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 retraced some of their recent gains. The DJIA added as much as 0.8% earlier in the session and was last seen up 0.5%. The cautious tone seems to have weighed on the market sentiment, which allows gold to stay resilient against the buck.

Technical outlook

The first technical resistance for the pair could be seen at $1260 (Jul. 4 high) ahead of $1267 (20-DMA) and $1272 (Jun. 24 high). On the downside, supports are located at $1250 (daily low), $1245 (Jun. 28 low) and $1239 (Jul. 2 low). Meanwhile, the CCI indicator on the daily chart is moving sideways near the 0 mark, pointing to a neutral price action in the short-term.

Gold stays flat on the day below $1260, FOMC minutes in the limelight

JULY 5, 2018 1:03 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

XAU/USD finds support near $1250 on Thursday.

Wall Street remains in the positive territory.

US Dollar Index stays quiet above 94 ahead of FOMC minutes.

The XAU/USD pair recorded gains for the second straight day on Wednesday but lost its momentum as the improved market sentiment hurt the demand for the precious metal, which is seen as a safe asset. After easing down toward the $1250 area, the pair encountered support and erased its daily losses to turn flat near $1257, where it is moving sideways now.

With investors coming back from the Independence Day holiday, major equity indexes in the United States started the day on a positive note and preserved their bullish momentum. As of writing, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were up 0.7% and 0.75% respectively.

Meanwhile, following the mixed macroeconomic data releases from the United States, the US Dollar Index failed to retrace its daily fall as investors took a back seat ahead of the FOMC minutes. According to the ADP data, the private sector employment increased by less than anticipated in June while both the ISM and Markit PMI revealed that the activity in the service sector expanded at a faster pace than expected.

It will be interesting to see the FOMC's view on Trump administration's trade policy. A cautious tone could trigger a flight-to-safety and help the pair gain traction. On the other hand, the probability of a September rate hike could increase on a hawkish tone help the USD gather strength against its rivals and make it difficult for the pair to extend higher.

Technical levels to consider

The immediate resistance for the pair aligns at $1260 (Jul. 4 high) ahead of $1267 (20-DMA) and $1272 (Jun. 24 high). On the downside, supports could be seen at $1250 (daily low), $1245 (Jun. 28 low) and $1239 (Jul. 2 low).

Critical Time For Gold

Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Thursday July 05, 2018 07:51

Gold had a nice bounce on Tuesday, pushing as high as $1,258 before seeing a little selling pressure but still managing to close at $1,253. On Wednesday with the markets closed for Independence Day, gold got to $1,263 in the Globex session.

The real question – is this a dead-cat bounce or has gold bottomed? The next couple of days will give us the answers we are looking for. If gold fails from here, then it was just a dead-cat bounce. If it can hold the recent lows and build on the rally, the bottoms could be in.

Today and tomorrow bring a lot of economic data, including the Fed minutes on Thursday and the jobs number on Friday. Either or both reports can help answer the question. In our view, the bottoms are in. We are watching with an exit below $1,240.

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal consolidating recent gains below $1,260.00/oz

JULY 4, 2018 1:43 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold bulls are pushing the metal higher for the second consecutive day as the metal reached $1,261.20 a troy ounce on Wednesday. Gold is now consolidating the recent gains above the 1,254.23 level, June 28 high.

Gold is now trading below the 100 and 50-period simple moving average and a breakout below 1,254.23 would expose gold to a move towards 1,250.00.

Gold bulls see the current consolidation as a bull flag which could lead to a breakout above the 1,260.00 level.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,256.20

Relative change: 0.29%

High: 1,261.20

Low: 1,251.40

Trend: Bearish below 1,260.00

Resistance 1: 1,260.00 figure

Resistance 2: 1,264.14 June 25 low

Resistance 3: 1,270.00 figure

Support 1: 1,254.23 June 28 high

Support 2: 1,250.00 figure

Support 3: 1,245.65 last week’s low

Support 4: 1,243.92 December 7, 2017 low

Support 5: 1,236.52 December 12, 2017 swing low

Support 6: 1,204.00 July 10, 2017 swing low

Gold Technical Analysis: dip-buying to help limit immediate sharp downfall

JULY 4, 2018 8:33 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• Technical buying above a short-term descending trend-channel helped build on overnight goodish rebound from fresh YTD lows and move past 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the $1309.30-$1237.97 recent downfall.

• A modest pickup in the USD demand caps any further up-move, albeit positive short-term technical indicators suggest dip-buying interest at lower levels and might limit any meaningful downside.

• Traders might also opt to lighten their bearish bets ahead of this week's important US releases – FOMC meeting minutes and NFP, and hence, a follow-through up-move, led by some fresh short-covering, now looks a distinct possibility.

Gold 4-hourly chart

Spot Rate: $1256.02

Daily Low: $1252.03

Daily High: $1261.12

Trend: Slightly bullish

Resistance

R1: $1261 (current day swing high)

R2: $1265 (38.2% Fibo. level)

R3: $1273 (20-day SMA)

Support

S1: $1252 (descending trend-channel resistance break-point)

S2: $1247 (horizontal zone)

S3: $1238 (YTD low set yesterday)

‘Currency Play’ Can Benefit Gold Traders — Westpac

Anna Golubova Tuesday July 03, 2018 19:30

(Kitco News) - With the U.S. dollar story still dominating the gold market, precious metals traders should be looking at a “currency play,” according to one commodity analyst at Westpac.

Gold prices have been dragged down by a rallying U.S. dollar during the past month, hitting another 12-month low overnight. Despite Tuesday’s small rebound, gold is still unable to attract its usual safe-haven interest amid escalating global trade war rhetoric.

“I’m not a big safe-haven fan,” Westpac’s Justin Smirk told Bloomberg on Tuesday when asked about how he views the gold market right now. “It is very much a U.S. dollar story. And we have a much stronger view around the U.S. dollar in thinking that the current strength in the U.S. economy and higher rates will continue to support the U.S. dollar.”

Smirk added that from the greenback’s perspective, Westpac can’t get excited about gold, which is why he suggested looking at various currency plays, including the Australian dollar.

“From an Australian point of view, we can get excited about gold. We can expect the Australian dollar to underperform in the strong U.S. dollar environment. Just like we saw in Japan when gold prices in Japanese yen outperformed. In Australian dollars it is similar — it is a currency play that perhaps is more important and that’s what can benefit some traders,” Smirk explained.

Spot gold on Kitco.com was last trading at $1,252.80, up 0.03% on the day in U.S. dollars and at $1,695.95, down 0.01% in Australian dollars.

Westpac also highlighted palladium, noting that the metal is shifting in how it responds to market fears.

“Overall, we have to be careful how we talk about this. Gold we see as not being a risk asset it used to be. But, you are seeing movements in other commodities around their industrial uses as well, which can have a play at this. I would be very cautious in bunching all the precious metals into one and just saying they are all going to behave in this environment linked to the U.S. dollar,” he said.

Palladium has managed to hold up reasonably well amid all of this, with the metal trading just off three-month lows. September palladium futures were last at $936.70 an ounce, down 0.14% on the day.

Things Are About to Heat Up for Gold


Jul 03, 2018Chris Mancini Mining Analyst, Gabelli Funds

Gold has been held back by a stronger U.S. dollar but the yellow metal could get a boost if the Federal Reserve reigns in on rate hikes, this according to Chris Mancini, research analyst at Gabelli Funds.

“I think what ultimately drives the gold price higher will be the Fed pausing and then the market pricing in the Fed easing. And so if the Fed is easing while the ECB [European Central Bank] is printing and the BoJ [Bank of Japan] are both printing money then I think gold will do really well,” Mancini told Kitco News.

Gold's Selloff Isn't Over Yet, Prices Could Drop To $1,200 - ABN Amro

Neils Christensen Tuesday July 03, 2018 13:58

(Kitco News) - Although gold prices have managed to bounce off fresh 12-month lows, the market is still down almost 7.5% from its April highs and one international bank sees risks for more down side.

In a report Tuesday, Georgette Boele, coordinator of foreign exchange and precious metals strategy at ABN Amro, said that gold prices could continue to fall and the market is weighed down in part by surging momentum in the U.S. dollar. She said that there is a risk that prices fall to $1,200 an ounce. For silver, she said that prices could fall to $15.60 an ounce in the near-term.

“Higher U.S. dollar, looming trade war between the U.S. and China, downward adjustment in eurozone outlook and the slide in the Chinese yuan have contributed to price weakness. Weakness in precious metal prices is not over yet, but prices are close to the bottom,” she said in her report. “In the near-term, weakness in precious metal prices may not be over yet. For a start, we expect the U.S. dollar to rally a bit further on strong economic data and ongoing Fed rate hikes. We also expect 10y US Treasury yields to rise a bit further.”

However, she added that $1,200 an ounce would represent a market bottom.

“We see these levels as an opportunity to position for higher gold and silver prices next year,” Boele said. “Later in the year, we expect the U.S. dollar and 10y US Treasury yields to peak. This should support precious metal prices. We also expect U.S. growth to peak in the fourth quarter of this year.”

For the current year, the bank sees gold prices holding relatively steady ending the year around $1,250 an ounce with silver prices closing 2018 at $16 an ounce.

Looking ahead, ABN Amro, has maintained its long-term forecast and sees gold prices rising to $1,400 an ounce by December 2019, while the Dutch bank also sees silver prices rise to $20 an ounce.

The comment comes as August gold futures settled Tuesday at $1,253.50 an ounce, up almost 1% on the day. Technical buying and bargain hunting helped push the yellow metal off a fresh 12-month low.

At the same time, September silver futures settled the day at $16.043 an ounce, up more than 1% on the day.

Stick With Precious Metals; Investor Interest Is Cyclical


Jul 03, 2018Richard Drechsler V.P. Communications, Strategic Metals Ltd
Lack of interest in precious metals is cyclical, and investors would do well to stick it out, said Richard Drechsler, V.P. Communications of Strategic Metals Ltd., a project developer based in Yukon.
“The gold price is obviously a big thing, if you can get the gold price moving in the right direction, you’re going to get a lot more interest coming back,” Drechsler told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Yukon Mining Investment Conference in Dawson City.
Drechsler added that investments into exploration companies are speculative in nature, which means capital into junior miners is competing against blockchain and marijuana stocks.
“The early stage exploration is higher risk capital so you’re competing against these other sectors, so without the gold price moving in the right direction for you, there’s not a lot of reason for people to step out and take that risk,” he said.

Gold Surges as Dollar Weakens

JULY 3, 2018 11:02 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were higher on Tuesday as the greenback fell and trade tensions lingered.

Comex gold futures for August delivery surged 1.12% to $1,255.70 a troy ounce as of 11:01 AM ET (15:01 GMT).

Trading is expected to be thin ahead of the U.S. independence day holiday, with the U.S. stock market closing early at 1:00 P.M. ET (17:00 GMT).

Gold was bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar. Gold normally rises as the dollar falls, as the precious metal is denominated in the U.S. currency and is sensitive to moves in the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.20% to 94.41.

Bullion becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises and cheaper when it falls.

Meanwhile trade tensions remained, with the U.S. set to block China Mobile from offering services in the U.S. market, citing possible national security risks. The move comes just days before the U.S. is set to impose tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods on Friday.

Traders often turn to gold in times of political uncertainty, as the precious metal is often considered a safe haven from the impact of geopolitics but gold has struggled amid the latest political risks.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were up 1.45% to $16.065 a troy ounce. Among other precious metals, platinum rose 3.80% to $844.30 while palladium increased 0.64% to $940.40 an ounce. Copper futures lost 0.75% to $2.922 a pound.

Gold struggles near 6-1/2 month lows, remains vulnerable

JULY 2, 2018 8:53 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A goodish pickup in the USD demand prompts some fresh selling on Monday.

• German political woes/ reviving safe-haven demand did little to lend any support.

Gold continued with its struggle to register any meaningful recovery and remained within striking distance of 6-1/2 month lows set last Thursday.

The US Dollar kicked off the third quarter on a strong note and was seen as one of the key factors weighing on dollar-denominated commodities – like gold at the start of a new trading week.

The bearish sentiment remained unabated despite a bout of global risk-aversion trade, as depicted by a sea of red across European equity markets led by the latest German political jitters.

The risk-off mood was evident from the ongoing downfall in the US Treasury bond yields but did little to lend any support to the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.

Meanwhile, prospects for a gradual Fed rate hike moves through the end of this year, further reinforced by Friday's core PCE price index, might continue to keep a lid on any meaningful recovery for the non-yielding metal.

Moving ahead, this week's heavyweight US economic data, including the keenly watched non-farm payrolls data might influence Fed rate hike expectations and eventually help determine the commodity's next leg of directional move.

With the USD price dynamics turning out to be an exclusive driver of the metal's momentum on Monday, the release of the US ISM manufacturing PMI will now be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities during the early North-American session.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate support is pegged near the $1246 region, below which the commodity is likely to extend the downfall further towards Dec. 2017 swing lows, around the $1237-36 area. On the flip side, the $1255 region now seems to have emerged as an immediate hurdle, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards $1261 level en-route the $1267 supply zone.

Gold longs reduced, oil shorts covered – TDS

JULY 2, 2018 7:13 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

According to the CFTC weekly report (W/E June 26), following central bank divergence which precipitated USD strength, particularly against emerging market currencies, even consolidating interest rates and growing trade angst were unsuccessful in sparking interest in gold.

Key Quotes

“In fact, money managers continued to reduce their net length, adding shorts in response to downward momentum and technical indicators, while longs stayed on the sidelines as investor interest fades.”

“Similar to investor action in response to previous US-China trade tensions, copper specs have been heavily reducing exposure once again.”

“After weeks of reducing exposure, the WTI crude specs were back in full force, aggressively adding back longs and covering shorts. Indeed, traders were convinced to get bullish on oil again after OPEC+ decided to increase production 600k-1m bpd, less than the market was pricing in before the meeting.”

Gold / Silver / Copper Prices

Weekly Outlook:

July 2 – 6

JULY 1, 2018 6:04 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices are likely to remain under pressure this week as traders digest the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting on Thursday, when markets re-open after Wednesday’s Independence Day holiday.

The Fed hiked interest rates in June and signaled for the first time that they could lift rates four times this year, a typically gold-negative factor.

On Friday, metals traders will turn their attention to the U.S. employment report for June for an update on the health of the labor market. The report is expected to show that hiring cooled.

Last month’s jobs report was overshadowed by a tweet from U.S. President Donald Trump that said he was looking forward to the data, so investors will likely keep an eye on the president’s Twitter account ahead of the release of the report.

Alongside the jobs report, markets will watch for updates on the U.S. manufacturing and services sectors.

Gold prices ticked higher on Friday as a rally in the dollar stalled, but still logged a weekly loss.

Gold futures for August delivery rose $3.2 or 0.26% to settle at $1,254.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday. Its close on Thursday at $1,247.80 was the lowest since December 13.

Gold prices saw a weekly loss of 1.27%, a decline of 3.75% for the month and a 5.41% drop for the quarter, leaving prices down 4.21% so far this year.

Gold prices have slumped despite escalating trade tensions and uncertainty over the outlook for global growth as a stronger dollar and higher interest rates have negated any boost from safe haven demand.

Expectations for higher rates tend to be bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise, while a stronger U.S. currency makes gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign investors.

Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver futures settled up 0.96% at $16.10 a troy ounce, for a weekly decline of 2.04%. Platinum settled at $856.90, up 0.2%, bringing the week’s losses to 2.48%.

Among base metals, copper was slightly lower at $2.96 in late trade, holding above the six-month low of $2.930 reached on Thursday. Prices fell 2.7% for the week, pressured lower by concerns over slowing economic growth in China, the world’s largest consumer of the metal.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 2

China is to release data on the Caixin manufacturing index.

The UK is to release data on manufacturing activity.

Financial markets in Canada will be closed for a holiday.

In the U.S., the Institute of Supply Management is to publish its manufacturing index.

Tuesday, July 3

New Zealand is to release data on business confidence.

Australia is to report on building approvals and the Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

The UK is to release data on construction activity.

Wednesday, July 4

Australia is to produce data on retail sales and trade.

China is to release data on the Caixin services index.

The UK is to release data on service sector activity.

Financial markets in the U.S. will be closed for a holiday.

Thursday, July 5

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak.

The U.S. is to release the ADP nonfarm payrolls report as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims and the ISM is to publish its non-manufacturing index.

Later in the day, the Federal Reserve is to publish the minutes of its June meeting.

Friday, June 6

The UK is to publish an industry report on house price inflation.

Canada is to publish its latest employment report.

The U.S. is to round up the week with the nonfarm payrolls report for June.

Will Investors Finally Say ‘Enough’ After Major Gold Selloff?

Anna Golubova Friday June 29, 2018 13:49

(Kitco News) - Analysts are struggling to pinpoint gold’s future direction after prices hit a 12-month low earlier this week, yet many agree that the yellow metal is oversold and is due for a rebound.

Gold prices continue to trade under heavy pressure on Friday, closing down what was a very tough week, where gold saw all of its year-to-date gains erased while ignoring escalating trade tensions and weaker than expected Q1 U.S. GDP data.

Analysts are still puzzled as to why gold -- a safe-haven asset -- is failing to attract investors at such a low price and amid unstable geopolitical environment.

All have explanations, pointing to rising U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve, but most are still taken aback by gold’s weakness.

“The move down in gold prices was a bit more than we expected. It was surprising that despite trade tensions, the only safe haven that didn’t benefit was gold,” Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini told Kitco News on Friday.

The U.S. dollar index touched a one-year high this week, nearing 95.50, while August Comex gold futures tumbled below $1,248 and came close to 12-month lows.

“Dollar has wind in its sails,” Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler said, noting that he was surprised that “gold did not benefit at all from concerns around trade war between the U.S. and China. And trade wars in more generally between the EU and the U.S.”

One of the reasons why the U.S. dollar has been stealing all of the safe-haven attention is market’s perception that a trade war will narrow the U.S. trade deficit because of less trade with the rest of the world, which in return will strengthen the U.S. dollar, according to Butler.

“There are good fundamental reasons to believe gold should be doing better, but those are being outweighed by macro sentiment and a stronger dollar,” he said.

Gambarini noted that aside from higher U.S. dollar weighing on precious metal’s prices, futures market has also been bearish to gold. “A lot of investors have liquidated their positions or turned short on futures markets, which could have exacerbated the move down,” she explained.

Some Positive Sings For Gold Prices

Gambarini does not see prices falling much further from where they are now, but adding that a higher U.S. dollar will always cap any potential gains from trade war rhetoric.

Butler, on the other hand, is bullish on gold at these level. “The rising inflation should be positive for gold and also there has been two or three straight weeks of selling now and with positioning quite negative, this could be the time investors say ‘enough already’,” the analyst said. “Gold at $1,250 looks pretty cheap all things considered.”

A clear positive sign for gold came at the end of this week, when the U.S. dollar index retreated 0.80% on the day back to 94.62, giving some reprieve to precious metal’s prices.

Another bright spot for gold has been rising inflation in the U.S., which is good for the yellow metal that is traditionally bought as an inflation hedge.

U.S. consumer prices saw an acceleration in May, with the Commerce Department stating on Friday that a measure of underlying inflation hit the Federal Reserve’s 2% target for the first time in six years, Butler pointed out.

On top of that, he said that lower prices could boost gold purchases out of China, the number one consumer of gold in the world. “The other thing we tend to see at times like this is China buying efficiently,” Butler said. “If prices were to go below $1,250, we’ll start to see a response in the Far East.”

Levels To Watch

Butler highlighted that gold prices have been hitting a succession of lower lows and that the $1,240 is a significant test.

“We are really hitting the bottom part of the uptrend that we’ve seen in the back of 2015. Very close to now breaching that key technical level, coming in at around $1,240. If we can hold it, the longer term uptrend will remain intact,” he stated. “Gold could stage a bit of relief rally if the dollar doesn’t continue to move higher.”

TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay said he is monitoring the $1,240 level on the downside and $1,255-$1,260 on the upside. McKay added that he is neutral on prices next week.

Chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management Colin Cieszynski is slightly bearish on prices, noting that gold would bottom out around the $1,240 level and will likely stick around the $1,240-$1,260 an ounce range.

“Gold won’t break $1,240,” he said. “The metal is oversold … and $1,260-65 [will serve] as resistance.”

Be Aware Of Exaggerated Moves Next Week

Thin trading volumes due to a short holiday week in the U.S. and Canada could lead to wild and exaggerated moves on the marketplace. And some analysts are telling investors not to take it to heart, as those moves will likely unwind quickly.

“The Canadian holiday on Monday is not that relevant, but the U.S. holiday on Wednesday when everyone is closed will probably lag into the weekend, so I expect a very thin market coming into the close on Tuesday through the balance of next week,” Kitco’s global trading director Peter Hug said. “Thin markets can be moved and can have exaggerated moves, so that’s one of the things you need to look out for.”

Key Data

Big news next week will be the Federal Reserve minutes from the June 13 meeting, scheduled for the release on Thursday, and the U.S. nonfarm payrolls from June, set to be published on Friday.

Analysts will be carefully examining Fed’s language, to see if Fed Chair Jerome Powell was as hawkish as markets interpreted him to be when the central bank hinted at two more rate hikes this year.

“It would be interesting to have a read and see if the language used have changes and what we can gather on inflation and interest rates for the remaining for the year,” Gambarini pointed out. “If there was any indication that the Fed was worried about inflation that would be positive for gold prices.”

McKay added that the U.S. jobs data will give markets an insight look into how strong the economy really is and if Fed’s hawkishness is really “warranted.”

Meanwhile, trade policy will remain in focus for traders, with the rollout of the first round of tariffs on China this coming Friday. Gambarini warned that this event could “weigh on the markets and give boost to the dollar.”

Forget U.S. Dollar, Gold Is The Global Reserve Currency – Frank Holmes


Jun 29, 2018Frank Holmes CEO, U.S. Global Investors
Trade competitors to the U.S., like Russia and China, have been regularly stock piling gold to hedge against the unpredictability of U.S.
“Every month, Russia continues to accumulate gold, just like China. Why is that? Because there’s a real movement, that’s very slow and gradual, not to trust the U.S. dollar,” Holmes told Kitco News.
Holmes noted that with global trade under fire from protectionist policies, the U.S. dollar can no longer be depended upon by other major economies as a safe haven.
“This thing on tariffs that Trump has been escalating now, has slowly been creeping for the last 18 years. It’s interesting that the Renminbi wants to be a reputable trading currency, well, countries want gold as a backdrop as a guarantee against the Renminbi,” he said.

A New Gold Rush?

Daniela Cambone Friday June 29, 2018 14:33

(Kitco News) - While the gold market has been pretty uneventful since the start of summer, you wouldn’t know it in Canada’s Yukon Territory.

Our editor Neils Christensen just returned from a week packed with mine tours and interviews from Canada’s great white North. Highlights include his interview with Ranj Pillai, the Minister of Energy & Mines for the Yukon government, who told Kitco News that the territory is ramping up BIG TIME capital expenditures for its resource industry.

Kitco contributor and mining expert David Erfle told Kitco News that companies operating in Yukon are “ready, willing, and able” to continue growing. Watch his interview with Neils to find out his top picks from the territory.

And if you were wondering….many of our hawk-eyed viewers were quick to point out what seemed like falling snowflakes in the videos but alas, it is summer in the Yukon and that is simply pollen floating around!

On to the gold front now. This week, Kitco News’ Anna Golubova reported that the recent sell-off in the commodities space was not “fundamentally warranted,” this according to the Bank of Montreal (BMO), which views gold as a “natural” defensive play if tensions between the U.S. and China escalate into a full-blown trade war.

“From a fundamental perspective, commodities are still in a good spot. We continue to revise higher our demand estimates for 2018, and the vast majority of commodities are trading out of the cost curve in an effort to attract additional supply to market,” BMO Capital Markets analysts wrote in their Q3 Commodity Price Update.

Yet the metal was not getting any reprieve this week. Gold hit a nearly 12-month low Thursday and silver notched a seven-month low. Gold and silver bulls need a good dose of bullish fundamental news, which has been absent from the marketplace in recent weeks.

Ahead of the weekend August gold futures saw a bit of a reprieve as prices were last up $4.20 an ounce at $1,257.10. July Comex silver was last up $0.149 at $16.10 an ounce.

We hope you enjoy our curated pick of videos this week. Next week should be a quieter one with Canada Day on July 1 and the Fourth of July in the U.S.

Enjoy the long weekend!

“Underexplored” Territory: Exploration Makes Yukon Great Again


Jun 29, 2018Tara Christie President & CEO, Banyan Gold Corp
Even after 100 years of gold production, the Yukon Territory is still largely untapped by miners, this according to Tara Christie, president & CEO of Banyan Gold Corp.
“The Yukon is very underexplored. It’s been not on the radar for many gold companies and exploration companies and it’s only been in recent years that we’ve seen an influx of exploration,” Christie told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Yukon Mining and Exploration Company in Dawson City.
“You look at the new exploration techniques that we’re using nowadays, as well as what we know, I think there’s a lot of discoveries left to be made in the Yukon, and there are so many areas that we’ve barely scratched at,” she added.
Christie noted that aside from untapped deposits, miners in Yukon enjoy superior infrastructure than other mining jurisdictions, like Africa and even parts of western Canada.

Gold Prices Rise But Remain on Track for Hefty Monthly Slump

JUNE 29, 2018 1:48 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices traded higher Friday on a weaker dollar, but remained on track to post their biggest monthly slump since September after suffering heavy losses this month.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $4.90 or 0.39%, to $1,255.90 a troy ounce.

The dollar fell sharply Friday on the back of a resurgent euro, paving the way for gold to pare some of its recent losses but gains in the yellow metal were limited by mostly upbeat U.S. economic data, reaffirming investor expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index excluding food and energy – rose 2% in the 12 months through May.

Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose by 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department said on Friday, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.4% rise.

But analysts at Stifel downplayed the weakness in consumer spending, citing income growth offered little evidence this was the start of a trend lower in consumer spending, adding that the stronger inflation data would support calls for a faster pace of Federal Reserve rate hikes.

“From the Fed’s point of view, stable wages coupled with a further rise in prices offers additional justification for a potentially accelerated pathway for rates,” Stifel said Friday.

Gold prices were on track to post their biggest monthly slump since September as a strong uptick in the dollar this month, prompted traders to cut their bullish bets on gold.

The weakness in gold comes as its safe-haven status failed to attract demand at a time when trade war rhetoric – which has eased slightly – remained front and center as both China and U.S. pledged to enact trade restriction earlier this month.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 1.03% to $16.12 a troy ounce, while platinum futures added 0.08% to $855.90 an ounce.

Copper prices fell 0.19% to $2.97.

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal correcting higher hits $1,255 a troy ounce

JUNE 29, 2018 1:13 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold is correcting higher after four days of decline. Gold broke above 1,254.23 Thursday’s high.

If gold breakout above Thursday’s high is sustained a retest of 1,260 figure can be on the cards.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,254.67

Relative change: 0.53%

High: 1,255.70

Low: 1,245.65

Trend: Bullish correction

Resistance 1: 1,260.00 figure

Resistance 2: 1,264.14 Monday’s low

Resistance 3: 1,270 figure

Support 1 : 1,254.23 Thursday’s high

Support 2: 1,250.00 figure

Support 3: 1,245.70 current 2018 low

Support 4: 1,243.92 December 3, 2017

Support 5: 1,236.52 December 12, 2017 swing low

Dramatic Metals Sell-Off Not 'Warranted,' Gold Is A 'Natural' Defensive Play - BMO

Anna Golubova Thursday June 28, 2018 13:35

(Kitco News) - The recent sell-off in the commodities space was not “fundamentally warranted,” according to the Bank of Montreal (BMO), which views gold as a “natural” defensive play if tensions between the U.S. and China escalate into a full-blown trade war.

“From a fundamental perspective, commodities are still in a good spot. We continue to revise higher our demand estimates for 2018, and the vast majority of commodities are trading out of the cost curve in an effort to attract additional supply to market,” BMO Capital Markets analysts wrote in their Q3 Commodity Price Update report published on Wednesday.

One of the biggest geopolitical risks on the horizon is the escalating trade war rhetoric between the U.S. and China, according to the report.

The trade tensions are weighing on commodities, especially when it comes to concerns around future demand.

“Clearly, trade frictions are weighing on future demand expectations, and we would argue current commodity prices are factoring in a significant H2 slowdown,” analysts wrote.

But, if the world was to see a full-blown trade war between the U.S. and China, then all industrial commodities would suffer, but gold would be a “natural defensive play in that environment,” BMO pointed out.

The bank projects for gold to average $1,320 an ounce in 2018, which is 1% lower than its previous estimates for the year.

Despite slightly lower, near-term outlook, BMO raised its 2019, 2020, and 2021 price outlooks: “Our price target for 2019 has increased 1% to $1,293/oz. Further out, we maintain the view that prices will average $1,250/oz in both 2020 and 2021 (marking a 4% upward revision to our 2021 forecast) while holding the 2022 forecast and subsequently our long term target steady at $1,200/oz.”

Unfortunately, what this means for gold, according to BMO, is that prices will not be trading above their key psychological level of $1,300 an ounce on a sustained basis for the next four years.

“The factors which drive gold continue to pull it in numerous directions, with the net effect of keeping it stuck in a range,” analysts wrote.

As of Thursday afternoon, August Comex gold futures were last seen trading at $1,249.30, down 0.54% on the day.

The macro environment remains positive for gold demand, added BMO, citing loose global monetary policy and elevated geopolitical risks.

“[This] should keep macro asset allocators being net buyers of gold via futures and ETFs. Gold typically does well at the early stages of an inflation cycle, which does tend to come just after the peak rate of expansion. We do thus expect some increased micro asset allocation towards gold, though cognisant of the fact that retail investors, whether in developed or emerging markets, have many more potential investment options available to them than in past cycles,” analysts said.

The one thing that investors should be carefully watching is a possibility of monetary policy outside of the U.S. becoming more hawkish. “We would only become concerned for gold if monetary policy outside the US started to tighten more aggressively in future years,” analysts noted.

Also, future U.S. dollar strength could prove to be a significant headwind for gold, limiting its potential recovery, the report added.

For those interested in precious metals equities, BMO recommends looking at Newmont, Agnico Eagle, Endeavour Mining, Fortuna Silver, SEMAFO, Argonaut Gold, Kirkland Lake Gold, Premier Gold, Continental Gold and Pretium Resources.

Is It Prime Time For Gold's Bounce Back? Peter Hug

Jun 28, 2018Peter Hug Global Trading Director, Kitco Metals
Gold may be overdue for a corrective bounce, but investors should not expect much upward momentum soon, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals.
“I’m not bearish, bearish, I think we can get a bounce off this $1,250 level, we also have the June quarter end coming up, so expect some volatility tomorrow and Friday,” Hug told Kitco News.
Hug noted that from a technical level, gold should hold the $1,251 an ounce level.
“If we lose that level then from a technical perspective I think we have further to go down. On the upside you need a breakout about $1,267 [an ounce] to confirm upside momentum,” he said

Gold renews 2018 low below $1250 on improving market sentiment

JUNE 28, 2018 1:55 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Wall Street gains traction, 10-year T-bond yields advance to fresh daily high.

US Dollar Index consolidates daily losses near 94.90.

XAU/USD loses more than $20 since the start of the week.

The selling pressure witnessed on the XAU/USD pair remains intact on Thursday as the higher risk appetite hurts the demand for traditional safe-havens in the NA session. At the moment, the troy ounce of the precious metal is down $4.5 on the day at $1247.50.

The T-bond yields, which show an inverse correlation with the XAU/USD pair, are looking to end the day in the positive territory after recording losses during the first half of the week. As of writing, the 10-year reference was up 0.7% on the day at 2.85%. Moreover, the improving market sentiment is also reflected upon the major equity indexes in the United States. Following a choppy start to the day, Wall Street gained traction and the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 were both up around 0.25%.

On the other hand, the US Dollar Index retraced its daily gains and dipped into the negative territory below the 95 handle amid disappointing growth figures. The monthly report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday revealed that the real-GDP is expected to expand by 2% in the first quarter of the year, less than the previous estimate and the market expectation of 2.2%.

Although the DXY looks to end the day with modest losses, a positive reading in tomorrow's core-PCE price index data, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, could allow the index to close the week on a positive note and force the pair to extend its losses.

Technical outlook

The CCI indicator on the daily chart stays below the -100 mark, suggesting that sellers are still in control of the price action. The pair could face the first support at $1240 (Dec. 13 low) ahead of $1234 (200-WMA) and $1228 (Jul. 16, 2017, low). On the upside, resistances align at $1254 (daily high), $1260 (Jun. 27 high) and $1268 (Jun. 28 high).

Gold Inches Down as Trade War Fears Ease

JUNE 27, 2018 10:46 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were lower on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened and trade tensions eased.

Comex gold futures for August delivery fell 0.20% to $1,257.40 a troy ounce as of 10:45 AM ET (14:45 GMT).

Trade war worry eased after news that the White House administration is taking a less harsh approach to foreign investment restrictions. President Donald Trump wants Congress to pass and updated Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to protect domestic technology and won’t invoke a national emergency law on China, according to a senior administration official.

Investors had been on edge in recent days over fear that Trump would limit foreign investment into U.S. technology companies in the latest trade war move.

Traders often turn to gold in times of political uncertainty, as the precious metal is often considered a safe haven from the impact of geopolitics but gold has struggled amid the latest political risks.

Meanwhile the U.S. dollar was higher. Gold normally rises as the dollar falls, as the precious metal is denominated in the U.S. currency and is sensitive to moves in the dollar.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rising 0.34% to remain near one year highs of 94.68.

Bullion becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises and cheaper when it falls.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were down 0.15% to $16.225 a troy ounce. Among other precious metals, platinum fell 1.91% to $858.00 while palladium decreased 0.94% to $945.70 an ounce. Copper futures gained 0.18% to $3.021 a pound.

Gold recovers early lost ground to fresh 6-month lows

JUNE 27, 2018 8:03 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• Resurgent USD demand keeps exerting downward pressure for the third straight session.

• Reviving safe-haven demand/sliding US bond yields do little to ease the bearish pressure.

• Short-term oversold conditions might now prompt some short-term covering move.

Gold continued trending lower for the third consecutive session on Wednesday and dropped to a more than six-month low, albeit has managed recover early lost ground.

The US Dollar regained positive traction and built on overnight rebound from two-week lows, which was eventually seen exerting some fresh downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities – like gold. Adding to this, firming prospects for a gradual Fed rate hike through 2018 was further seen driving flows away from the non-yielding yellow metal.

Even deteriorating risk appetite and reviving demand for traditional safe-haven assets, led by escalating trade tensions between the US and its key allies, did little to lend any support and stall the precious metal's fall to its lowest level since December 18.

However, near-term oversold conditions could turn out to be only factor prompting traders to lighten their bearish bets and contributing towards a modest rebound/easing the selling pressure, at least for the time being.

Today's US economic docket, highlighting the release of durable goods orders data, might influence the USD price dynamics and will now be looked upon to grab some short-term trading opportunities.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent recovery is likely to confront fresh supply near the $1266 area and is followed by $1270 resistance level. On the flip side, the $1255-53 region now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might continue dragging the commodity further towards $1248-47 intermediate support en-route $1241-40 zone.

Gold Looks ‘Ready For Takeoff’, Says One Analyst

Anna Golubova Tuesday June 26, 2018 16:53

(Kitco News) - The summer dip in gold prices might be a sign of a reversal for the yellow metal, according to one gold bull, who is expecting to see a “takeoff” amid a “friendlier” macro environment.

“A short-term bottom in gold seems to be very likely at this juncture, thanks to a slightly friendlier macro backdrop,” Boris Mikanikrezai, precious metals analyst at Metal Bulletin, wrote in a Seeking Alpha post on Tuesday.

Gold prices have suffered a series of losses these past few weeks, hitting a fresh six-month low of $1,256.40 an ounce earlier in the session. August Comex gold futures were last seen at $1,260.30 an ounce, down 0.68% on the day.

One of the main obstacles for gold prices has been a stronger U.S. dollar, which made unexpected gains amid heightened geopolitical tensions.

Mikanikrezai’s outlook sees this trend reversing, as further escalation of trade war rhetoric could take away from the U.S. dollar’s gains and boost gold prices.

“The tough stance on trade adopted by the U.S. administration has resulted in retaliatory measures by its trading partners … As a result, it is safe to argue that trade tensions are likely to worsen before getting any better,” Mikanikrezai wrote. “Global risk-taking appetite could decline more pronouncedly (even if central banks step in), the dollar could give back its earlier gains, and U.S. real rates could accelerate their decline.”

The short-term direction of gold prices should be up, according to Mikanikrezai, who advises holding a long position in BAR [GraniteShares Gold Trust ETF].

“Against a friendlier macro backdrop for gold, I expect gold prices (proxied by SPDR Gold Trust ETF - GLD) and gold mining equities (proxied by the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF - GDX) to move higher toward their monthly highs in the near term,” he said. “I would emphasize that gold may need time before rallying at a more convincing pace.”

Gold continues trending lower, remains vulnerable

JUNE 26, 2018 8:53 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A goodish pickup in the USD demand prompts some aggressive selling.

• Fading safe-haven demand further aggravates the downward momentum.

• Technical studies suggest an extension of the near-term bearish trajectory.

Gold continued drifting lower through the mid-European session and is currently placed at fresh six-month lows, around the $1255 region.

Having failed to benefit from escalating US-China trade tensions, initial signs of stability in the global financial markets was now seen weighing on the precious metal safe-haven appeal.

This coupled with a goodish pickup in the US Dollar demand aggravated the selling pressure and further collaborated to the dollar-denominated commodity's slump to its lowest level since Dec. 18.

Today's steep decline could also be attributed to technical selling, following the occurrence of a death-cross on daily charts, wherein a short-term moving average (50-day SMA) crosses below the longer-term moving average (200-day SMA).

Meanwhile, a sustained break below a medium-term ascending trend-line support, extending from Jan. 2017 through lows touched in July and Dec. 2017 reinforces a bearish set-up. Hence, a follow-through weakness, despite near-term oversold conditions, remains a distinct possibility.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate support is pegged near the $1251-50 area, below which the metal might continue to slide towards $1245-44 intermediate zone en-route Dec. 2017 lows support near the $1237-36 region.

On the flip side, any recovery attempts back above $1260 level might now confront immediate resistance near the $1266 area, which if cleared might trigger a short-covering bounce towards $1272-73 barrier.

David Erfle’s Top Mining Picks


Jun 25, 2018
David Erfle Kitco News Contributor
David Erfle, founder of www.juniorminerjunky.com, likes Klondike Gold (CVE: KG), ATAC Resources (CVE: ATC), and Alexco Resources (NYSE: AXU).
Speaking from the Yukon Mining Investment Conference in Dawson City, Erfle tells Kitco News that companies operating in Yukon are “ready, willing, and able” to continue growing.
Erfle noted that successful mining companies up north should be working closely with the government and the First Nations for operations to run smoothly.
“[Companies operating in Yukon] understand that it’s challenging, it’s seasonal and that they all have to be in sync for this to work, and they are,” he said.

Lower Gold Prices Today Complete Death Cross Pattern

Gary Wagner Monday June 25, 2018 18:51

Gold futures closed down $3.10 today, with the August Comex contract currently fixed at $1,267.60. This three-dollar decline completed a pattern that we identified last week called a "death cross". A "death cross" is created when the shorter-term moving average crosses below the longer-term moving average.

This pattern is created from a 200 and a 50-day moving average. As such, these time parameters for each moving average are used to gauge short and long-term market trends. The short-term average crossing below the long-term average can signal the point in time in which a short-term correction has become a long-term selloff. As such, it can undoubtedly be indicating that gold prices could deteriorate further to much lower pricing.

Historically speaking, since 2013 there have been two instances of a death cross which occurred just before a significant selloff in gold pricing. There have also been two times in which a golden cross was identified (when the short-term moving average moves back above the long-term moving average) resulting in higher pricing.

However, there is also an occurrence in which the moving averages crossed back and forth over a 10-month time span, in essence, indicating a tight sideways market range until a final cross signaled dramatically lower pricing.

The most significant of the two occurrences of a death cross pattern occurred at the beginning of 2013 when gold was trading at $1,660 per ounce. The moving averages did not cross back to a golden cross until the end of March 2014, with gold trading at $1,267 per ounce. Also during that period in time, gold prices traded to a low of $1,190 per ounce on two occasions.

In November 2017, gold was trading at approximately $1,275 per ounce when another occurrence of a death cross appeared. From that moment, gold prices plunged to $1,120 before recovering.

The fact of the matter is that there are historical examples in gold in which this pattern forewarned of an imminent and dramatic price drop. Although there are also instances of this pattern flipping back and forth between a dead and golden cross in the market-rate sideways, this pattern is not to be taken lightly. When it is correct in indicating a selloff, that selloff can be dramatic and long-term.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

Gold / Silver / Copper Prices – Weekly Outlook: June 25 – 29

JUNE 24, 2018 5:53 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold looks likely to remain vulnerable amid worries over higher U.S. interest rates boosting Treasury yields, after the yellow metal registered a second weekly decline last week, ending close to its lowest levels since December.

Gold futures for August delivery tacked on 60 cents to settle at $1,271.10 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange late Friday. For the week, prices were down 0.56%. Its close on Thursday at $1,267.20 was the lowest since December.

Prices of the precious metal have been pressured lower against a backdrop of rising U.S. interest rates and a stronger dollar.

Expectations for higher rates tend to be bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise, while a stronger U.S. currency makes gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for foreign investors.

The precious metal has largely shrugged off concerns over a potential trade war between the U.S. and China that normally would bolster safe haven demand for gold.

U.S. inflation data will be in focus this week with the Federal Reserve having already flagged four interest rate hikes this year. The Fed’s preferred inflation measure; the core PCE price index is due on Friday.

The third reading on first quarter U.S. GDP is due the day before and there will also be data on durable goods orders and consumer sentiment.

Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver futures settled up 0.79% at $16.45 a troy ounce, to end the week almost unchanged. Platinum settled at $878.70, up 1.7%, bringing the week’s losses to 1.07%.

Among base metals, copper for May delivery was slightly higher at $3.033 in late trade for a weekly decline of 3.44%.

Copper prices were pressured as trade tensions between the U.S. and China continued to escalate, fueling fears that protectionist trade policies will slow the global economy and weaken demand.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 25

The Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

Tuesday, June 26

The U.S. is to release data on consumer confidence.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is due to speak at an event in Alabama.

Wednesday, June 27

New Zealand is to publish data on trade and a report on business confidence.

Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to hold a press conference about the latest financial stability report in London.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders.

Fed Governor Randal Quarles is to speak at an event in Idaho.

Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz is to speak.

Thursday, June 28

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish a rate statement which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.

In the euro zone, Germany is to release preliminary data on inflation.

European Union leaders are to attend the first day of an economic summit in Brussels.

The U.S. is to release revised data on first quarter growth as well as the weekly report on jobless claims.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is to speak in Atlanta.

Friday, June 29

The UK is to produce revised data on first quarter growth as well as figures on the current account and net lending.

The euro zone is to release a preliminary estimate of consumer price inflation.

EU leaders are to attend the second day of an economic summit in Brussels.

Canada is to release its monthly report on economic growth as well as data on raw material price inflation. The Bank of Canada is to publish its business outlook survey.

The U.S. is to round up the week with data on personal spending and the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the core PCE price index, along with data on business activity in the Chicago region and revised data on consumer sentiment.

Mahendra Forecasts Gold Prices And The World Cup Winner

Jun 22, 2018Mahendra Sharma
Mahendra Sharma of mahendraprophecy.com told Kitco News that gold will be trading within a 15% to 20% range from now until October, when it bottoms out.
Sharma bases his predictions on astral charts, and said that the yellow metal should adopt a “very strong momentum” after it bottoms out in October. On the World Cup, Sharma said that Mexico and Brazil will do well and should be “watched closely.”

Gold Trades to the Lowest Price of the Year

Gary Wagner Friday June 22, 2018 17:47

Although gold closed modestly higher on the day, the precious yellow metal scored its second consecutive week of lower pricing. Gold futures opened on Monday at $1281 per ounce and traded to a high of $1286. However, it was the weekly low of $1263 that fostered the greatest concern.

Considering that gold opened just above $1,300 per ounce at the beginning of the year, the last two weeks have resulted in gold trading to the lowest price of 2018.

The two critical factors which have placed the greatest amount of selling pressure has been a strong US dollar, and the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy of quantitative normalization.

The highest price that gold traded this year occurred during the week of April 9 when gold futures traded as high as $1,370 per ounce. At that time the dollar index was trading at 89, after forming a base and support from the lows achieved at the end of January. This week, the dollar index hit its highest value of the year when it traded to highs above 95. This represents a 6% gain this year.

While dollar strength explains the vast majority of gold’s lower pricing this year, gold has lost approximately 7.2% of value from the highs achieved in April. The additional 1.2% is obviously due to selling pressure.

This month’s FOMC meeting revealed a more hawkish Fed that created additional selling pressure. Although it was widely anticipated that the Fed would initiate its second-rate hike this year, they also revealed a possible addition of two more rate hikes in 2018.

A Death Cross Forming on Daily Gold Charts

On a technical basis, one of the more foreboding indicators is a real high probability that the short-term 50 day moving average will cross below the longer-term 200-day moving average, which is commonly referred to as a death cross.

Most technical analysts use the 200-day moving average as a gauge of a long-term trend, and the 50-day moving average as a gauge of the short-term trend. Any stock or commodity which is trending higher will result in the shorter-term moving average above the longer-term moving average. Therefore, a death cross can signal when a short-term decline has moved into a longer-term decline or downtrend.

Looming Trade War

The current dispute between the United States and China has been moving towards an all-out trade war. It will be the net effect on the US dollar if and when tariffs begin to be enforced that will indicate the future direction of gold. As of now the current dispute and the recent announcement by the European Central Bank has strengthened the dollar.

As reported in MarketWatch, “Gold traders, however, have mostly dismissed those anxiety-provoking events that normally would be supportive of gold’s price to focus on a stronger buck and the prospect of central bank policy tightening taking hold in key developed markets.”

If tariffs are enforced in July as proposed, it could have a profound impact on dollar strength that would take the dollar index lower, which would move gold off of these recent lows.

Wishing you as always, good trading,

RERUN: Dambisa Moyo - Why Democracy Is Failing

Jun 22, 2018Dambisa Moyo Editor's Note: This week we are kicking off summer 2018 by re-running some of our most popular hit videos. Stay tuned for coverage on everything from cryptos to the death of liberal democracy, all from your favorite guests.There is a serious mismatch between the long-term problems our society faces and the short-sightedness of our policy makers, according to New York Times best-selling author, Dambisa Moyo. “These long-term economic challenges from demographics, to income inequality, to natural resource scarcity, and issues around debt…these are long-term economic issues that are deeply embedded in the economy, and yet we have myopic short-term short-termism embedded in the political process,” Moyo told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Mines & Money New York conference. Moyo noted that our political system has deviated from the “one man one vote mantra” we have associated with liberal democracy as voting participation rates amongst developed democracies are very low. “I think the consequences of that are quite dire, because what you end up with is basically narrow voting parties, and I think that policy makers and politicians very naturally try to steer the political agenda towards the people who are voting and not towards the broad societal base,” she said.

Gold Struggles for Direction as Dollar Slumps

JUNE 22, 2018 4:43 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices struggled for direction on Friday and remained at six-month lows as the dollar fell and trade tensions lingered.

Comex gold futures for August delivery were down 0.02% to $1,270.30 a troy ounce as of 4:41 AM ET (8:41 GMT).

Tensions between the U.S. and its allies continue, as India joined China and the European Union in retaliation against steel and aluminum tariffs. As the biggest buyer of almonds, India raised its tariff on U.S. almonds by 20%. Meanwhile the European Union imposed tariffs on about $3.4 billion of U.S. imports on Friday, including motorcycles, orange juice and cranberry sauce. The expected tariffs have added to tensions as investors fear an outright global trade war between the U.S.and other major countries.

Traders often turn to gold in times of political uncertainty, as the precious metal is often considered a safe haven from the impact of geopolitics but gold has struggled amid the latest political risks due to the strength in the greenback.

Meanwhile the U.S. dollar was lower. Gold normally rises as the dollar falls, as the precious metal is denominated in the U.S. currency and is sensitive to moves in the dollar but was held back despite a fall in greenback.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 94.24, falling 0.33%.

Bullion becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises and cheaper when it falls.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were up 0.51% to $16.410 a troy ounce. Among other precious metals, platinum rose 0.20% to $864.90 while palladium increased 0.60% to $951.30 an ounce. Copper futures gained 0.58% to $3.039 a pound.

Gold clings to modest recovery gains, around $1270 level

JUNE 22, 2018 3:43 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A follow-through USD retracement helps build on overnight rebound from 6-month lows.

• Global trade war fears revive safe-haven demand and provide an additional boost.

• Positive equities/goodish pickup in the US bond yields might keep a lid on any strong up-move.

Gold built on overnight rebound from six-month lows and continued gaining some positive traction through the early European session on Friday.

The US Dollar extended overnight retracement slide from 11-month tops and was seen as one of the key factors underpinning demand for dollar-denominated commodities – like gold.

Adding to this, growing concerns about a full-blown global trade war, especially after the EU slapped retaliatory duties on multiple American products worth around $3.2 billion, was cited support for the precious metal's safe-haven appeal.

However, a positive trading sentiment around global equity markets, coupled with a goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields, to some extent, seemed negative supportive factors and might now contribute towards keeping a lid on any meaningful up-move, at least for the time being.

In absence of any major market moving economic releases, the USD/US bond yields dynamics and the broader market risk sentiment might continue to act as important determinants of the commodity's move on the last trading day of the week.

Technical levels to watch

Immediate resistance is pegged near the $1274-75 region, above which the recovery could get extended towards $1282-84 supply zone (weekly top). On the flip side, $1267 level now seems to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might turn the metal vulnerable to extend its bearish slide towards $1255 support area.

Gold Can Climb As Fed Hikes — RBC Capital Markets

Anna Golubova Thursday June 21, 2018 16:32

(Kitco News) - Federal Reserve’s rate hikes are not “be-all and end-all” for gold prices, said RBC Capital Markets, projecting to see gold significantly climb next year as investors start to take market uncertainties seriously.

Conventional assumption that rising rates are negative for gold does hold, but Fed’s rate increases are just an obstacle, not the main driver for the yellow metal, said RBC’s commodity strategist Christopher Louney.

“This comes back to the idea that rates are a headwind and not the be-all and end-all. So even if we do get these rate increases this year and throughout next year, gold prices can still climb on the back of it given a number of other factors at play,” Louney said in a video posted on RBC Insights page this week.

The relationship between higher rates and gold is not a symmetrical one, which means that not all increases or decreases in rates will translate into equal increases or decreases in gold price.

RBC is expecting to see another three rate hikes this year and four rate hikes next year.

The last rate hike in 2018 is not entirely priced in yet, which could lead to lower gold prices in the end of the year, Louney noted but added that 2019 will be a much better year for the precious metal.

“In our view gold will average $1,307 in 2018 and $1,351 in 2019. We term this a cautiously constructive view,” he said. “There are a number of macro headwinds at play, there are buoyant equity levels, dollar off its lows and rising rates. However, these are just headwinds.”

Investors must remember that gold prices have “some underlying current” behind them, which will boost the yellow metal’s level to $1,351, according to RBC’s analysis.

“We do think the risk is skewed to the upside given the proliferation of uncertainty in the market and a number of uncertainties that are just out there,” Louney said.

On top of that, the markets will begin to view global uncertainty as a serious threat next year. This will be a significant shift in market sentiment, as most of this year’s risks had little impact on gold because traders were not shaken by any geopolitical tribulations.

“While the market has become skeptical of uncertainties, we do think there is scope for skepticism to subside and for people to really appreciate the uncertainty in the market and for that to really filter through to gold prices overall,” Louney pointed out.

In the meantime, gold trimmed some of its daily losses after touching a fresh six-month low earlier in the session on Thursday. August Comex gold futures were last seen trading at $1,269.60, down 0.38% on the day.

Gold Is Not Done Falling, This Is The Next Leg Down Says "Bubba" Horwitz



Jun 21, 2018
Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz Chief Market
Strategist, BubbaTrading.com

Gold investors should eye an even lower target from current levels, as there is currently no need for a flight to safety, said Todd “Bubba” Horwitz.
“I think soon there will be good news, but I think we’ve broken down and violated a lot of key levels, and I think really, the next real level that I’m going to want to step in, unless we rally sooner, is probably around $1,240 [an ounce],” Horwitz told Kitco News.
Horwitz said that investors have been complacent with precious metals lately.
“I think that too many people are making too big a deal out of these trade wars and that is causing [a selloff in gold], and keeping a pressure on the metals right now,” he said

Gold Prices Move Off Lows as Dollar Rally Stalls

JUNE 21, 2018 1:50 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices eased from fresh lows for the year as the dollar turned negative on weaker U.S. economic data.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $3.10 or 0.24%, to $1,271.10 a troy ounce after spiralling to a fresh 2018 low of $1,263.20.

A sharp retreat in the dollar – from its highest level since last summer – supported a recovery in gold but sentiment remained negative amid expectations a more aggressive Fed rate-hike cycle would continue to spur demand for the greenback.

Following the Fed’s rate hike last week, and more hawkish outlook on rate hikes, gold prices have slipped 3%, as traders bet that the divergence between the Fed’s hawkish outlook on monetary policy relative to other central banks will drive demand for the greenback.

“The divergence between U.S. and rest of the world monetary policy will support longer and greater USD strength than we had anticipated,” Barclays (LON:BARC) said in a note to clients.

Gold is sensitive to moves higher in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency while a rise in U.S. rates, lift the opportunity cost of holding gold as it pays no interest.

Gold was on course to post a second weekly loss in a row as its vulnerability to dollar strength continued to offset safe-haven demand in the wake of renewed U.S.-China trade tensions.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 0.04% to $16.315 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 1.22% to $863.40 an ounce.

Copper prices lost 0.51% to $3.03 to remain at nearly two-month lows amid fears escalating U.S.-China tensions could pressure copper demand from China.

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal trading below $1,275/oz near 2018 low

JUNE 20, 2018 11:03 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold is trading in a very narrow trading range just below the $1,275 a troy ounce level which is the low of last week and the weekly 100-period simple moving average.

Gold is trading near its 2018 low and below the 50, 100 and 200-period simple moving average on the 4-hour time-frame suggesting the yellow metal is under pressure.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,274.00

Relative change: -0.04%

High: 1,276.50

Low: 1,270.30

Trend: Bearish

Resistance 1: 1,275.00, 100-period SMA (weekly)

Resistance 2: 1,281.70 May 21 low

Resistance 3: 1,291.30 former supply/demand level

Resistance 4: 1,300.00 figure

Support 1: 1,270.10 current week’s low

Support 2: 1,250 figure

Support 3: 1,233.00, 200-period SMA (weekly)

Gold, Silver Can't Escape Raw Commodity Downdraft

Jim Wyckoff

Tuesday June 19, 2018 12:56

(Kitco News) -Gold and silver prices are modestly lower in early-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday. Gold fell to a six-month low and silver hit a four-week low today.

The precious metals have fallen victim to a general sell off in the raw commodity sector amid fears of a major world trade war developing. Adding to downside pressure on the metals today is a surging U.S. dollar index that hit an 11-month high today. August Comex gold futures were last down $2.20 an ounce at $1,277.90. July Comex silver was last down $0.105 at $16.335 an ounce.

World and U.S. stock markets were solidly lower today as risk aversion is high after the Trump administration has threatened China with still more trade tariffs, and China has again responded with its own latest threats. The world’s two largest economies appear headed for a full-blown trade war that could significantly impact the entire world economy if the matter deteriorates.

There was some safe-haven demand seen for gold in overnight trading. However, gold and silver once again opted to trade in line with the raw commodity sector, instead of as safe-haven assets for much of the day today. I still suspect that gold will garner at least some safe-haven demand if the trade situation with major U.S. trading partners deteriorates further.

The key “outside markets” today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 11-month high today. Meantime, Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading just below $65.00 a barrel. The sell-off in the oil has been especially bearish for the metals.

Gold Prices Struggle to Find Footing as Dollar Rallies

JUNE 19, 2018 1:52 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – The growing threat of an all-out trade-war between the U.S. and China drew a muted reaction in gold prices as the dollar rally kept a lid on demand for the yellow metal.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $2.40 or 0.19%, to $1,277.70 a troy ounce.

China vowed to retaliate to the latest trade salvo from the White House – after Trump threatened to impose a 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods – stoking fears of a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Yet, gold prices struggled to capture the upside enjoyed by other traditional safe-heavens such as the USD/JPY, U.S. Treasuries and the USD/CHF as investors were wary of increasing their bets on gold amid a rally in the dollar to a nearly one-year high.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.36% to 94.76.

Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A rise in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, reduces demand for the precious metal.

Analysts at Julius Baer said they were “very surprised” that investment demand in gold has “cooled again” of late, claiming that holdings of physically-backed products reversed a quarter of this year’s growth so far in June.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures fell 0.64% to $16.34 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 1.95% at $866.70 an ounce.

Copper lost 1.88% to $3.05.

Gold Falls Amid Trade War Worries

JUNE 19, 2018 10:09 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were modestly lower on Tuesday, pressured lower by a rising U.S. dollar while trade tensions lingered.

Comex gold futures for August delivery were down 0.23% to $1,277.20 a troy ounce as of 10:08 AM ET (14:08 GMT).

Trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued, as the two largest economies in the world faced a tit-for-tat over global trade tariffs.

In the latest spat, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on another $200 billion of Chinese goods “if China refuses to change its practices, and also if it insists on going forward with the new tariffs that it has recently announced,” the president said.

On Friday Trump announced a 25% tariff on $50 billion Chinese goods, with China promptly retaliating with a 25% tariff on U.S. goods, including soybeans and automobiles, worth $34 billion.

Investors often turn to gold in times of political uncertainty, as the precious metal is often considered a safe haven from the impact of geopolitics.

Gold was also held back by a rise in the greenback.Gold is denominated in the U.S. currency and is sensitive to moves in the dollar. Bullion becomes more expensive for holders of other currencies when the dollar rises and cheaper when it falls.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, was at 94.75, rising 0.36%.

Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures were down 0.76% to $16.315 a troy ounce. Among other precious metals, Platinum Futures fell 1.33% to $872.10 while Palladium Futures decreased 0.65% to $976.50 an ounce. Copper futures lost 1.56% to $3.058 a pound.

Gold Prices Make Timid Start to Week Despite Sloppy Dollar

JUNE 18, 2018 1:47 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices rose modestly as the U.S. dollar remained flat against its rivals and rising U.S.-China trade tensions fuelled investor appetite for safe-haven gold.

Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.50 or 0.12%, to $1,280.20 a troy ounce.

Following its biggest one-day slump since November 2016, gold prices made a timid start to the week as traders weighed the prospect of further dollar upside against rising trade-war tensions between the U.S. and China.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.06% to 94.50.

Dollar-denominated assets such as gold are sensitive to moves in the dollar – A rise in the dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency and thus, reduces demand for the precious metal.

Some market participants have also blamed the recent slump in gold prices on a breach of a key technical level around $1,307 last week, citing a further breach of price levels near the $1,270 zone would trigger a wave of selling.

Yet investor demand for the yellow metal appears to have returned as data last week showed traders resumed their bullish bets on safe-haven gold.

CFTC COT data data last week showed speculative net long positions on gold increased to 64,572 from 58,066 last week.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures fell 0.06% to $16.47 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 0.44% at $883.90 an ounce.

Copper lost 0.94% to $3.12.

Gold hangs near 6-month lows, around $1280 level

JUNE 18, 2018 4:33 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• Escalating US-China trade tensions prompt some safe-haven buying.

• Persistent USD buying keeps a lid on any meaningful up-move.

Gold struggled to register any meaningful recovery and remained within striking distance of near six-month lows set on Friday.

The ongoing US Dollar rally, supported by last week's hawkish Fed rate hike move was seen as one of the key factors weighing heavily on dollar-denominated commodities – like gold on Friday.

The USD buying remained unabated at the start of a new trading week, albeit escalating US-China trade tensions provided a minor boost to the precious metal's safe-haven demand.

This coupled with deteriorating risk appetite, as depicted by weaker trading sentiment around equity markets and further reinforced by retracing US Treasury bond yields, extended some additional support to the non-yielding yellow metal.

The uptick, however, lacked any strong conviction and could also be attributed some short-covering amid near-term oversold conditions. Hence, it would be prudent to wait for a strong follow-through buying before confirming that the commodity might have bottomed out in the near-term.

Technical levels to watch

A sustained move back above $1282 level might assist the metal to recover back towards $1286-87 supply zone and any subsequent momentum now seems to be capped near $1292-93 strong resistance. On the flip side, $1275 level (Friday's swing low) is likely to protect the immediate downside and is followed by a long-term ascending trend-line support near the $1272 region.

Gold / Silver / Copper Prices – Weekly Outlook: June 18 – 22

JUNE 17, 2018 6:17 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Federal Reserve tightening looks likely to remain a strong headwind for gold in the coming week after the precious metal tumbled on Friday to mark the lowest settlement since December, well below the psychologically important $1,300 level.

The diverging monetary policy outlook between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank is likely to underpin dollar demand. A stronger U.S. currency makes gold and other dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Gold futures for August delivery settled down $26.20 or 2.00% at $1,282.10 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, prices were down 1.81%.

Despite some risk aversion in markets on Friday as a trade spat between the U.S. and China escalated, precious metals traders focused on a rally in the dollar index which reached an eleven-month high, before easing slightly in late trade.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six major currencies, rose to 95.13, a level not seen since July 2017, before pulling back to 94.80 late Friday. For the week, the index was up 1.33%, its best weekly performance in seven weeks.

Demand for the dollar was boosted after a more hawkish sounding Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday and indicated that it now sees two more rate increases before the years end.

Expectations for higher interest rates tend to be bearish for gold, which struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when rates rise.

A day later the European Central Bank outlined plans to wind up its massive asset purchase program by December, but also pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the middle of 2019.

The move saw the euro post its largest one day loss against the dollar since 2016, with EUR/USD tumbling 1.88%.

Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver settled down 4.01% at $16.57 a troy ounce, for a weekly decline of 1.45%. Platinum settled at $888.20, down 2.49%, bringing the week’s losses to 2.20%.

Among base metals, copper for July delivery was down 2.61% to $3.138 in late trade for a weekly decline of 4.62%.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, June 18

Financial markets in China will be closed for a holiday.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic is to speak at an event in Savannah.

ECB President Mario Draghi is to speak at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, in Portugal.

San Francisco Fed chief John Williams is to speak at an event in New York.

Tuesday, June 19

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy setting meeting.

ECB head Mario Draghi is to speak at the second day of the central bank’s forum in Portugal.

The U.S. is to release data on building permits and housing starts.

Wednesday, June 20

ECB head Mario Draghi, along with Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell are due to participate in a panel discussion at the ECB forum in Portugal.

The U.S. is to produce figures on existing home sales.

Thursday, June 21

New Zealand is to release data on first quarter economic growth.

The Swiss National Bank is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and hold a press conference following its policy meeting.

The UK is to report on public sector borrowing figures.

Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann is to speak at an event in Paris.

The Bank of England is to announce its latest monetary policy decision.

The U.S. is to release the weekly jobless claims report along with data on manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.

BoE Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.

Friday, June 22

The euro zone is to release data on manufacturing and service sector activity.

Canada is to round up the week with reports on consumer inflation and retail sales.

Gold Testing Critical Support But Analysts Still See Potential Next Week

Neils Christensen Friday June 15, 2018 12:36

(Kitco News) - Gold prices are seeing sharp selling pressure ahead of the weekend, weighted down by surging momentum in the U.S. dollar as monetary policy between the U.S. and Europe continue to diverge.

Gold futures are preparing to end the week with heavy losses with August gold last traded at critical support at $1,280.40 an ounce, down 1.71% from last week. The lost comes a day after gold prices rallied to a four-week high. This is gold’s worst week in a month as prices dropped more than 2% the week of May 14.

However, despite near-term softness in the yellow metal, some analysts are reluctant to be significantly bearish on the yellow metal as geopolitical uncertainty remain high in the face of a growing trade war between the U.S. and China.

“I think in the short term we can see gold prices lower, but I don’t think we will see a major selloff in gold,” said Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group. “Given all that has happened this past week, I think gold is holding up reasonably well. I think it could struggle to rally in this environment, but it’s not going significantly lower.”

Eugen Weinberg, head of commodity research at Commerzbank, is also optimistic on gold in the near term, especially as the Trump administration approved $50 billion in new tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that China will again retaliate with its own tariffs on U.S. imports, with agriculture products in the crosshairs.

“Everything right now is going against gold, but I don’t think you want to be short the metal in this environment,” he said. “I don’t see one major catalyst that will drive gold higher but there are a lot of little factors, and it won’t take much to shift the negative sentiment in the gold market.”

A Tale Of Two Central Banks

Earlier in the week, the gold market was able to hold its ground around the critical psychological level around $1,300 an ounce, despite hawkish sentiment from the Federal Reserve after it raised rates by 25 basis points.

Markets much anticipated the rate hike; however, the Federal Reserve also signaled that it forecasts two more rate hikes this year, one more than markets were expecting. The U.S. central bank also raised its forecasts for economic growth and saw a lower unemployment rate for the year.

In plain terms, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said: “The economy is doing very well.”

While gold prices jumped to a one-month high following the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting, the gains have been short-lived as markets have been digesting dovish comments following the European Central Bank’s monetary policy meeting.

While Mario Draghi said that the ECB is ready to stop its bond-purchase program at the end of the year, he surprised markets by saying that the central bank won’t look at raising rates until at least the summer of 2019.

His statement was interpreted Friday by many economists as being dovish, which has sent the euro dramatically lower against the U.S. dollar. The euro is a significant component in the U.S. Dollar Index, which is trading at its highest level since November 2016.

“After the big breakdown in the EUR/USD exchange rate yesterday, the positively-correlating gold was always going to struggle to sustain its gain,” said Fawad Razaqzada, technical analyst at FOREX.com.

Gold Is Down But Not Out

David Madden, market analyst at CMC Markets, said that his bias for gold in the near-term is down as the market has been unable to hold gains above its 200-day moving average, which is around $1,308 an ounce.

However, he described the gold market as dull because ultimately he sees the market trapped in its well-established range. While the hawkish monetary policy is weighing on prices, global market financial uncertainty is providing some support.

“Gold is trapped between the Fed’s desires to raise interest rates but also by its focus on global trade and economic issues,” he said. “If the Fed becomes really concerned about trade issues that would be very supportive for gold.”

Weinberg said that there is enough uncertainty in financial markets to shift sentiment in gold to a more positive tone quickly. He added that rising inflation and growing concern over the global economy makes gold the best safe-haven asset.

“You definitely don’t want to hold equities in this market as volatility picks up,” he said. “You also don’t want to hold bonds as inflation rises either.”

Lawler said that gold will struggle until there is a definite shift in financial markets, which means a weaker U.S. dollar and weaker equity markets.

Key Levels to Watch

Although gold is down sharply ahead of the weekend, analysts have pointed out that the market is still stuck in a range. On the upside, analysts have said that prices need a sustained break above $1,308 an ounce to attract investors back to the marketplace.

On the downside, gold could attract more selling pressure if prices break below critical support at $1,280 an ounce.

“In the near-term Dollar strength worries us, a close above 95 in the September Dollar Index will likely put significant pressure on Gold and open the door the mid-1280’s,” said Bill Baruch, president of Blue Line Futures. “While the Dollar remains the clear winner this week, one could view this battle as the best of the weakest and for that reason, the groundwork has been laid for Gold in the longer-term.”

The Final Say

With all the central bank decision out of the way, the market will have little to digest next week. The two major reports to be released next week is housing construction data for May and regional manufacturing data from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve.

Markets will hear from Draghi and Powell as they both speak at a European central bank conference next week; however, after their press conferences this past week, economists are not expecting any major surprises.

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow Metal about to post its largest daily decline since November 2016

JUNE 15, 2018 12:53 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

If the bears close the day near $1,275.00 a troy ounce, gold would post its worst daily decline since November 2016.

Gold broke below the previous 2018 low at 1,281.70 and has reached a low of 1,275.34 as the London session came to an end this Friday. Now, 1,281.70 becomes the new resistance.

Today’s sell-off brings gold to a 5-month’s low as the metal tested the weekly 100-period simple moving average.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,278.38

Relative change: -1.81%

High: 1,303.13

Low: 1,275.34

Trend: Bearish

Resistance 1: 1,281.70 May 21 low

Resistance 2: 1,291.30 former week's low

Resistance 3: 1,300.00 figure

Resistance 4: 1,307.77 May 25 high

Support 1: 1,275.00, 100-period SMA (weekly)

Support 2: 1,270.00 figure

Support 3: 1,233.00, 200-period SMA (weekly)

Gold Prices Steady as US Reportedly Readies Hefty Tariff on Chinese Imports

JUNE 14, 2018 2:01 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices shrugged off a strong dollar rally to remain above the psychologically important $1,300 level as trade tensions raised demand for safe-haven gold.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $5.10 or 0.38%, to $1,306.20 a troy ounce.

Traders piled into safe-haven gold on expectations the United States will impose tariffs on $50 billion worth of Chinese imports on Friday, raising the prospect of retaliation from the Beijing, threatening a tit-for-tat trade war between the world’s largest two economies.

The list – that will be subject to a levy – is expected to include between 800 and 900 products, well below the original list of about 1,300 products published by the U.S. Trade Representative in April, CNBC reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter. President Donald Trump reserves the final decision on whether to impose tariffs.

The United States, however, remained wary of rocking its relationship with China, as the Far-East nation has played an important role in keeping pressure on North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

The threat of a tit-for-tat trade between the world’s largest two economies comes just a day after the Federal Reserve raised its outlook on rate hikes for this year and 2019.

Some said, however, the Fed’s monetary policy decision Wednesday was mostly priced into markets, as gold prices have fallen sharply since April.

In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds.

Gold’s move higher was limited by a rise the dollar to two week highs following a slump in the euro after the European Central Bank said interest rates would be left unchanged until at least the summer of 2019.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 1.38% to $17.23 a troy ounce, while platinum futures rose 0.68% at $908.60 an ounce.

Gold Versus Dollar: Precious Metal ‘Entering A Win-Win Phase’

Anna Golubova Thursday June 14, 2018 16:19

(Kitco News) - The well-established negative relationship between the price of gold and the U.S. dollar will lose some of its power in the near future, allowing gold to climb further, said Bloomberg Intelligence's Mike McGlone.

“The elevated gold-to-greenback negative correlation should diminish, likely coinciding with higher metal prices,” McGlone said in a note published on Thursday.

With a hawkish Federal Reserve rate hike over with, gold could be looking at higher levels amid rising inflation expectations and heightened market volatility, McGlone pointed out.

“Locked within the narrowest 52-week range in almost two decades and the third consecutive inside-range week, gold is about as ripe to move as it gets. Up is the path of least resistance, with bottoming inflation and stock market volatility,” the note said.

August Comex gold futures showed impressive resilience in the face of a rallying U.S. dollar index on Thursday, maintaining some early-morning gains and last trading at $1,307.30, up 0.46% on the day, while the U.S. dollar index was last at 94.74, up 1.10% on the day.

“Showing bullish divergence, despite the sharpest relative increase in the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index above its 20-week average since the end of its 2016 peak, gold is holding above relative support,” McGlone said. “The most recent gold decline marked its third since the dollar peak, but to a lesser extent, despite the sharp dollar rally.”

Kitco’s senior technical analyst Jim Wyckoff pointed out a similar trend, highlighting gold’s unexpected strength.

“[Gold is] showing surprising and impressive resilience in the face of a strong surge in the U.S. dollar index today. Gold prices hit a four-week high today,” Wyckoff said in his PM Roundup. “The gold market’s gains today, amid the strong U.S. dollar, are another clue the yellow metal has put in a near-term bottom and can now trade at least sideways, if not sideways to higher, in the near term.”

Gold’s momentum comes a day after the Fed announced a 25 basis point rate hike, bringing the federal funds rate to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%. Fed’s statement also suggested two more rate hikes this year, as the economy continues to grow.

The U.S. dollar was largely boosted on Thursday, following a dovish European Central Bank’s (ECB) statement, which said that there will be no moves on rates at least through the summer of 2019 and added that the quantitative easing (QE) program will end at the end of the year.

“We decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged and we expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary,” ECB President Mario Draghi said during a press conference.

In response to the news, euro tumbled, while the U.S. dollar index staged a major rally, nearing a 7-month high.

Gold Prices Head Higher as U.S.-China Trade Tensions Spark Safe Haven Demand

JUNE 14, 2018 11:00 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices traded higher in midmorning trade on Thursday as traders as worries over U.S.-China trade relations sparked demand for the safe haven asset.

At 10:54AM ET (14:54GMT), gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up $8.50, or 0.7%, to $1,309.80 a troy ounce.

U.S. President Donald Trump was expected to meet with his top trade advisers on Thursday to decide whether to activate threatened tariffs on billions of dollars in Chinese goods, a senior Trump administration official said.

China urged the U.S. on Thursday to make a “wise decision” on trade, saying it was ready to respond in case Washington chose confrontation.

Trump is due to unveil revisions to his initial tariff list targeting $50 billion of Chinese goods on Friday. People familiar with the revisions said that the list will be slightly smaller than the original, with some goods deleted and others added, particularly in the technology sector.

The world’s two largest economies have threatened each other with tens of billions of dollars’ worth of tariffs in recent months, leading to worries that Washington and Beijing may engage in a full-scale trade war that could damage global growth and roil markets.

Gold is generally sought out as a safe haven store of value in times of political and economic uncertainty

In other metals trading, silver futures gained 1.9% at $17.310 a troy ounce by 10:54AM ET (14:54GMT).

Palladium futures fell 0.3% to $1,003.90 an ounce, while sister metal platinum rose 0.9% at $910.60.

In base metals, copper traded down 0.9% to $3.224 a pound.

FOMC: Median forecast of Fed policymakers is for a total of four rate hikes in 2018

JUNE 14, 2018 4:05 AM AEST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Below is the key takeaways from the FOMC's updated economic projections.

Median view of appropriate federal funds rate at end-2018 2.375 pct (prev 2.125 pct); end-2019 3.125 (prev 2.875 pct): end-2020 3.375 (prev 3.375 pct) longer-run 2.875 pct (prev 2.875 pct).

Median forecast of fed policymakers is for a total of four rate hikes in 2018.

Fed sees slightly higher 2018 GDP growth, lower unemployment in 2018-2020, higher inflation in 2018-19 vs previous forecast.

Median Fed long-run forecasts – GDP growth 1.8 pct (prev 1.8 pct); jobless rate 4.5 pct (prev 4.5 pct); PCE price index 2.0 (prev 2.0 pct).

Related articles

FOMC Preview: 8 major banks expectations from June meeting

We are closing into the FOMC’s June policy decision and as the clocks tick closer to the decision timing, following are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 8 major banks along with some thoughts on the future course of Fed’s action.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Greenback hammered down ahead of FOMC

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost about 40 cents after attempting to break above Tuesday’s high. Although the selling has been fairly intense, DXY is trying to find a support at the bull channel (black line).

About the FOMC statement

Following the Fed's rate decision, the FOMC releases its statement regarding monetary policy. The statement may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas a dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

About FOMC economic projections

This report, released by Federal Reserve, includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

FOMC raises the target for Fed funds rate by 25bp to 1.75-2.00%

JUNE 13, 2018 2:03 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Following its 2-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee announced that it would hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.75% – 2% in a widely expected decision. Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, is scheduled to deliver his comments on the monetary policy in a press conference at 18:30 GMT.

Key highlights from the official statement (via Reuters)

Fed drops reference from previous statements that it expected rates to be below neutral rate for 'some time'.

Fed says economic activity rising at a solid rate, previously described growth as moderate.

Fed repeats that stance of monetary policy remains accommodative.

Fed says further gradual rate increases will be consistent with sustained economic growth, strong labor market and inflation near 2 percent over medium term.

Fed says indicators of longer-run inflation expectations are little changed; drops previous references to market and survey-based measures of inflation outlook.

Fed says household spending growth has picked up.

Fed repeats near-term risks to the economy appear "Roughly balanced".

Fed vote in favor of policy was unanimous.

Fed says raises interest on excess reserves rate to 1.95 pct from 1.75 pct.

Fed says setting ioer rate 5 basis points below top of target range for funds rate aims to keep market rates well within range.

Related articles

FOMC Preview: 8 major banks expectations from June meeting

We are closing into the FOMC’s June policy decision and as the clocks tick closer to the decision timing, following are the expectations as forecasted by the economists and researchers of 8 major banks along with some thoughts on the future course of Fed’s action.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Greenback hammered down ahead of FOMC

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has lost about 40 cents after attempting to break above Tuesday’s high. Although the selling has been fairly intense, DXY is trying to find a support at the bull channel (black line).

About the FOMC statement

Following the Fed's rate decision, the FOMC releases its statement regarding monetary policy. The statement may influence the volatility of USD and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered as positive, or bullish for the USD, whereas a dovish view is considered as negative, or bearish.

About FOMC economic projections

This report, released by Federal Reserve, includes the FOMC's projection for inflation and economic growth over the next 2 years and, more importantly, a breakdown of individual FOMC member's interest rate forecasts.

Changes between May 2, 2018 and June 13, 2018 FOMC meetings -TDS

JUNE 13, 2018 2:23 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Following a 2-day meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee announced today that the central bank will hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the target range of 1.75% – 2% as widely expected.

Analysts at TD Securities offered the changes between May 2, 2018 and June 13, 2018 FOMC meetings as follows:

Changes between May 2, 2018 and June 13, 2018 FOMC meetings

Market now await Jerome Powell, Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, who is slated to deliver his comments on the monetary policy in a press conference at 18:30 GMT.

Gold Prices on Pause Ahead of Expected Fed Rate Hike

JUNE 13, 2018 10:08 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were little changed in midmorning trade on Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision.

At 10:06AM ET (14:06GMT), gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 70 cents, or 0.05%, to $1,300.10 a troy ounce.

According to data released on Wednesday, producer price inflation accelerated more than expected in May, underlining the case for the Fed to stick to its plans to hike interest rates gradually.

Markets expect the U.S. central bank to hike interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing federal funds rate target to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%, when it announces its decision at 2:00PM ET (18:00GMT) Wednesday.

With the move more than 90% priced in, market participants are focusing on whether the Fed will hint at the prospect of four rate hikes in 2018, compared to its forecast for three further increases back in March.

In other metals trading, silver futures gained 0.5% at $16.975 a troy ounce by 10:07AM ET (14:07GMT).

Palladium futures slid 1.1% to $1,004.50.90 an ounce, while sister metal platinum dropped 0.2% at $899.50.

In base metals, copper rose 0.3% to $3.260 a pound.

Gold holds weaker below $1300 mark ahead of FOMC

JUNE 13, 2018 8:13 AM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

• A modest USD retracement helps recover early lost ground to over one-week lows.

• Subdued US bond yields extend additional support but offset by fading safe-haven demand.

• Today’s highly anticipated FOMC decision could help determine the near-term trajectory.

Gold reversed a major part of its early slide to over one-week lows and is now trying to stabilize near the $1294 region.

Against the backdrop of fading safe-haven demand, a modest pickup in the US Dollar demand kept exerting downward pressure for the second consecutive session on Wednesday and dragged the dollar-denominated commodity to an intraday low near $1292 area.

However, a sudden fall in the US Treasury bond yields since the early European session extended some support to the non-yielding yellow metal and helped limit deeper losses, at least for the time being.

Looking at the broader picture, the commodity has been oscillating within a familiar band over the past four weeks or so as investors seemed to wait for clues over the path of interest rates, three or four hikes in 2018, before positioning for the next leg of directional move.

Hence, today's highly anticipated FOMC decision and the accompanying updated economic projections should play a key role in providing the required momentum and assist the metal to finally break through a narrowing trading range.

Technical levels to watch

Any subsequent weakness is likely to find support near the $1287-86 region before the commodity eventually drops to retest YTD lows, near $1282 level set on May 21. On the upside, $1300 handle might continue to act as an immediate resistance, above which the recovery move could get extended back towards the very important 200-day SMA.

Gold Technical Analysis: Bearish continuation pattern sighted

JUNE 12, 2018 11:33 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold has created a large pennant pattern, the hourly chart shows.

A downside break of the pennant would signal a resumption of the sell-off from the high of $1,326 has resumed and would open up downside towards $1,260 (pole height subtracted from breakdown price).

Hourly chart

Current Price: $1,295

Daily high: $1,296

Daily Low: $1,294

Trend: Bearish below $1,293 (pennant support)

Resistance

R1: $1,303 (June 7 high)

R2: $1,307 (200-day MA)

R3: $1,313 (50-day MA)

Support

S1: $1,288 (June 1 low)

S2: $1,282 (May 21 low)

S3: $1,275 (100-week MA)

Gold Prices Fall Below $1,300 as Focus Shifts to Fed

JUNE 12, 2018 1:35 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices fell below the psychologically important $1,300 level as the Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting got underway amid investor expectations the U.S. central bank will hike rates on Wednesday.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $4.20 or 0.34%, to $1,298.80 a troy ounce after trading as high as $1,304.80.

The weakness in gold prices comes a day ahead of the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. But with most market participants expecting the Fed to raise rates Wednesday, the Fed’s update on monetary policy will likely warrant added attention.

Following the Fed’s March meeting, the majority of policymakers expected the central bank to hike rates three times in 2018 but a string of bullish data has renewed expectations for a fourth rate hike.

Wells Fargo said it expects core PCE – the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation – to reach the Fed’s 2% target in the third quarter of year, paving the way for the U.S. central bank to hike rates on Wednesday and twice more in 2018.

Against the backdrop of strong U.S. economic growth, spurring expectations for a faster pace of U.S. monetary policy tightening, safe-haven assets such as gold and, to a lesser extent silver, are losing their attractiveness, said FocusEconomics in its Consensus Forecast – Commodities – June 2018 report.

In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds.

Gold prices were also held back by a rising dollar following upbeat inflation data, reaffirming investor expectations the Federal Reserve will continue on its rate hike path.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures fell 0.37% to $16.89 a troy ounce, while platinum futures lost 0.68% at $900.20 an ounce.

Gold Prices Little Changed After Trump-Kim Agreement, Fed Rate Hike Ahead

JUNE 12, 2018 10:43 AM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were little changed in midmorning trade tracking caution also seen in the dollar as the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting kicked off on Tuesday.

At 10:40AM ET (14:40GMT), gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange slipped 70 cents, or 0.05%, to $1,302.50 a troy ounce.

On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un pledged to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula, while Washington committed to provide security guarantees for its old enemy.

At the end of their historic summit in Singapore, Trump and Kim signed an agreement to work toward complete denuclearization and a lasting “peace regime” on the Korean Peninsula.

On the economic agenda, inflation in the U.S. accelerated at a faster-than-expected pace in May, although the data appeared to do little to pump expectations for the Fed to take a more aggressive stance on policy tightening.

Core CPI, a key gauge of underlying consumer price pressures that excludes food and energy costs, registered an annualized increase of 2.2%, in line with expectations.

That most recent reading of inflation comes as the Fed kicks off its two-day policy meeting. Markets expect the U.S. central bank to hike interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its meeting on Wednesday, bringing federal funds rate target to a range between 1.75% and 2.00%.

With the move more than 90% priced in, market participants are focusing on whether the Fed will hint at the prospect of four rate hikes in 2018.

In other metals trading, silver futures lost 0.1% at $16.930 a troy ounce by 10:41AM ET (14:41GMT).

Palladium futures and sister metal platinum were unchanged at $1,016.30 and $906.30, respectively.

In base metals, copper slipped 0.03% to $3.256 a pound.

Gold rises but remains in a range, around $1300

JUNE 11, 2018 3:43 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold post modest gains but continues limited above $1300.

Technical outlook shows some bullish momentum but not strong enough.

Key events ahead: Tump-Kim Jong Un meeting, US CPI and FOMC.

The yellew metal opened the week posting marginal gains. It benefit from a retreat of the US dollar during the second half of the day. Gold bottomed at $1,294/oz and then bounced to the upside. It peaked on US hours at $1,302, the highest since Thursday and pulled back to end the session hovering around $1,300.

Limited by $1300

It continues to move sideways, unable to consolidate firmly above $1,300 while the downside remains capped around $1,295. The tone favors modestly the uspdie.

The metal needs to post a daily close well above $1,300 (also the 20-day moving average) in order to clear the way to more gains. A consolidation on top of $1,300 would improve significantly the short-term technical outlook signaling a more significant bullish correction and that temporal bottom at $1,281 is in place.

If it continues to be unable to break and hold on top of $1,300 the tone would favor a continuation of sideways moves around $1,290/$1,305. A close below $1,290 would expose May lows at $1,282.

Risk events ahead

On Tuesday, the meeting between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will take place. Market participants will be looking into it. A positive outcome is discounted. Also on Tuesday US CPI data will be released and it is likely to have an influence on the US Dollar. The calendar also shows the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the ECB on Thursday.

Gold Prices Poised for Weekly Gain as Trade Tensions Escalate

JUNE 8, 2018 1:53 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were roughly unchanged Friday despite escalating tensions between the United States and its allies as the G7 meeting kicked off.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $0.20 or 0.02%, to $1,302.80 a troy ounce.

Tensions grew between the United States and its allies as U.S. President Donald Trump went into the G7 meeting expecting a frosty reception after lashing out at Canada and the European Union.

That failed, however, to spark demand for gold, which traded continued to trade in a narrow range as traders remained wary of initiating large bets on the yellow metal ahead of widely expected Federal Reserve next week.

Investor expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes has returned on the back of a string of bullish U.S. economy data, Stifel said.

“Improvement in the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation has reinvigorated the argument for a rise in rates potentially at an accelerated pace should inflation now exceed the Fed’s target,” Stifel said in a note to clients.

According to investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 33.8% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates for a fourth time at its December meeting, up from under 30% last week.

In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures fell 0.27% to $16.77 a troy ounce, while platinum futures rose 0.70% to $906.60 an ounce.

Copper rose 0.55% to $3.30.

Gold To ‘Shine Brighter’ This Time Next Year, Hitting $1,400 — ING

Anna Golubova Thursday June 07, 2018 21:04

(Kitco News) - It’s only a matter of time until gold breaks above $1,300 an ounce and climbs to $1,400, said ING, adding that a weaker U.S. dollar, U.S. debt, and positive physical demand will support the precious metal.

“We forecast prices averaging $1400/oz in 2Q 2019 as the dollar resumes a decline and U.S. twin deficits return to the foreground,” ING commodities strategist Oliver Nugent said in a report published earlier this week.

So far, gold’s reaction to U.S. tariff announcements against Canada, Mexico and the EU has been almost unnoticeable, said Nugent, adding that the most exciting time for the yellow metal could still be ahead as the G7 summit is set to begin on Friday.

“These tensions are expected to come to a head at this week’s G-7 leaders summit and any escalation ought to play to gold’s haven qualities receiving a double whammy for any confidence taken out of the greenback,” Nugent pointed out.

Also, physical fundamentals are set up right to provide support for the precious metal, including Swiss gold export data from April, which showed the first four months as registering a 2% year-over-year increase, largely driven by Chinese demand, according to ING.

Gold has been suffering from low fund flows and easing geopolitical tensions, which have been putting toward pressure on prices.

Even a recent drop in treasury yields failed to have a significant impact on gold prices, said Nugent.

“Since it's peak two weeks ago (May 16th) US treasury yields have fallen hard, boosting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset and supporting a brief break above $1300/oz. The ten year has dropped from a high above 3.1% to a low of 2.78%, before recovering slightly but still remains below the psychological 3%.”

One of the reasons for gold’s tepid response to falling treasury yields is a lower inflation outlook.

“This yield collapse would have been more positive for gold, except that inflation expectations also fell. A collapsing oil price (WTI -9.5% since May 16th) seems to be the prime culprit,” Nugent pointed out. “The yield spread still remains well up on December, so our longer-term view for higher gold prices based on higher inflation remains unchanged.”

Working in favor of gold long-term is the Federal Reserve’s possible willingness to let inflation run above its 2% target.

“While a June rate hike is all but certain, the FOMC minutes show an increasing tolerance towards inflation above 2% and continued concern towards the flattening yield curve,” Nugent wrote. “Any potential for derailing the future path of Fed rate hikes are positive for the longer term allure of holding gold as a non-yielding asset and help form our view that gold will shine brighter this time next year.”

Gold’s safe-haven appeal also failed to yield any short-term price boost amid Italian and euro uncertainties, the report added.

“This highlights both the simultaneous unraveling of geopolitical tensions and golds ongoing difficulty this year for attracting and sustaining decent fund flows,” Nugent said. “We don’t see much geopolitical risk being priced in: Italian politics has stabilized, Spain’s presidential exit is all but confirmed and the North Korean - US summit is back on.”

Gold Technical Analysis: Yellow metal bulls running out of steam yet again above $1,300/oz

JUNE 7, 2018 4:33 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold failed to break above $1300.00 a troy ounce for the third time this week. In fact, the 1,300.00 figure has been an important support/resistance since early May.

Buyers will need to sustain prices above the key 1,300.00-1,307.77 area in order to confirm any bullish momentum.

In the absence of any major geopolitical news, gold seems destined to break lower in the coming sessions as buyers are running out of ammo above the 1,300.00 level.

Gold 15-minute chart

Spot rate: 1,296.73

Relative change: 0.03%

High: 1,303.50

Low: 1,294.70

Trend: Bearish below 1,300-1,307.77 area

Support 1: 1,290.00- 1292.00 area, weekly low and Tuesday’s open

Support 2: 1,285.00 May 17 low

Support 3: 1,281.70 May 21 low

Resistance 1: 1,300.00 figure

Resistance 2: 1,306.00-1,307.77 area, supply level and May 25 high

Resistance 3: 1,320.00-1,325.91area, handle and May 11 high

Gold Prices Inch Higher Amid Weaker Dollar

JUNE 7, 2018 1:51 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were modestly higher as U.S bond yields fell and the dollar was on track to snap a three-week winning streak but traders remained cautious on the yellow metal ahead of a widely expected U.S. rate hike next week.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex divisiSon of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.40 or 0.11%, to $1,302.90 a troy ounce.

The ongoing slump in dollar index placed the greenback on track to post a weekly loss for the first time in four weeks, supporting gold prices despite investor expectations the Federal Reserve will hike rates at its meeting next week and reveal a more aggressive path for further monetary policy tightening.

Renewed expectations for a faster pace of rate hikes come on the back of a string of bullish U.S. economy data, strengthening investor expectations the U.S. economy was on a solid footing.

According to investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 36.4% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to hike rates for a fourth time at its December meeting, up from 29.6% last week.

In a rising interest rate environment, investor appetite for gold weakens as the opportunity cost of holding the precious metal increases relative to other interest-bearing assets such as bonds.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 0.34% to $16.75 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 0.84% to $900.00 an ounce.

Copper rose 0.21% to $3.27.

Gold To Rise 6% In The Coming Months

Anna Golubova Tuesday June 05, 2018

(Kitco News) - Gold has been resilient in light of strong U.S. jobs data and is now ready to climb to $1,375 an ounce on the macroeconomic backdrop set-up, according to one gold bull.

“I expect a 6% rise in gold prices in the coming months. I see gold at $1,375 per oz and BAR [GraniteShares Gold Trust ETF] at $137 per share,” Boris Mikanikrezai, precious metals analyst at Metal Bulletin, wrote in a Seeking Alpha post on Tuesday. “I am a long BAR to express my long-term bullish gold view.”

Last Friday, markets reacted to U.S. unemployment rate falling to 18-year lows in May and non-farm payrolls rising by 223,000 instead of the expected 189,000.

“Fortunately for gold, however, the release of the spectacular US jobs report has not impacted significantly the dollar and US real rates,” Mikanikrezai said.

The reason why the U.S. dollar and U.S. real rates were not impacted by the news was the unchanged outlook on the Federal Reserve’s tightening schedule.

“Market expectations of 4 Fed rate increases have picked up only a little following the release of the employment report. According to the CME, the probability of 4 rate increases (based of Fed fund futures) rose to 36% after the release, up from 31% previously,” Mikanikrezai wrote.

Gold prices are now attempting to stabilize, breaching the $1,300 an ounce level on Tuesday and trading near $1,301. Spot gold on Kitco.com was last at $1,296.60, up 0.05% on the day and August Comex gold futures were last at $1,301.70, down 0.04% on the day.

This trend will continue in gold as long as the U.S. dollar and U.S. real rates do not rise too quickly, Mikanikrezai pointed out.

“I am slightly bullish on gold over the short term while I expect stronger upward pressure later this year,” he said.

Mikanikrezai also noted that the latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) report showed that money managers substantially increased their net long positions in Comex gold between May 22-29.

“The net long fund position — at 153.09 tonnes as of May 29 — jumped 106.23 tonnes or 228% from the previous week (w/w). This was driven by a combination of long accumulation (+46.69 tonnes w/w) and short-covering (-59.53 tonnes w/w),” the analyst said.

Meanwhile, the ETF investors were net sellers of 224 tonnes of gold in May.

“As of June 1, 2018, gold ETF holdings totaled 2,164 tonnes,” he said. “Gold ETF demand has been poor in recent weeks, in part because investors have preferred to remain risk-lovers despite rising political/geopolitical/trade tensions.”

Gold Back Above $1,300 On Short-Covering, Bargain-Hunting

Jim Wyckoff Tuesday June 05, 2018

(Kitco News) - Gold prices were firmer and pushed back above the key $1,300.00 level in early-afternoon U.S. trading Tuesday. Some short covering in the futures market and bargain hunting in the cash market were featured, following recent selling pressure. Metals traders are looking for some new fundamental news to help drive prices. August Comex gold futures were last up $5.50 an ounce at $1,302.80. July Comex silver was last up $0.119 at $16.55 an ounce.

The U.S. stock indexes are at or near 2.5-month highs early this week, as traders and investors are in generally upbeat, risk-taking moods at present. The lack of risk aversion in the marketplace at present has been bearish for safe-haven gold and silver markets.

So far early this week, the marketplace is mostly looking past U.S. tensions with its major trading partners that threaten to boil over into a worldwide trade war. Such could change in a hurry, however.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices firmer on a corrective bounce and trading just above $65.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today on a corrective pullback from recent gains that last week pushed prices to a 10.5-month high.

Technically, the gold market scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Gold prices are still in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the May high of $1,332.40. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,286.80. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,312.60 and then at $1,320.00. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,293.10 and then at $1,286.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

The silver bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.07. First resistance is seen at $16.74 and then at the May high of $16.865. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $16.31 and then at $16.19. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

July N.Y. copper closed up 640 points at 319.90 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a six-week high today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 325.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 301.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the April high of 321.80 cents and then at 325.00 cents. First support is seen at 317.50 cents and then at 315.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Gold: bulls here to stay and targetting a break of 21-D and 100-D SMAs

JUNE 5, 2018 4:13 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

Gold enters consolidation with eyes on the 21-D SMA.

Technicals lean bullish with daily RSI turning positive.

Key risk events to come, and the FOMC might be supportive to gold should the market sell the fact.

Gold has settled into a sideways drift after strong gains from $1289.77 to $1300.72 the high, currently trading at $1297.38 at the time of writing while the greenback corrects lower on Tuesday.

The benchmark ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, dropped from earlier gains to trade 0.2% lower at 93.828 the low as the euro rallies on headlines that the June 18th ECB meeting is a live one. The ECB could be on the verge of making an announcement as to when the Central Bank intends to stop buying bonds. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note also dropped 2.3 basis points to 2.912%, an additional supportive factor for gold. US data did little to roil up risk appetite either, (The ISM nonmanufacturing index increased 1.8pp to 58.6 in May, above expectations).

It would appear that investors are more concerned over the path of protectionist policies that the U.S. is taking, where equities ended pretty much flat on the day, with such risks leading to a degree of consolidation across the markets. Indeed, it seems that the Trump administration has turned down a package that included Chinese companies buying more agricultural and energy products from the U.S. However, earlier today, Republican Senate foreign relations chair, Corker, had said that both Republican and Democratic Senators are about to introduce a bill to force Trump to obtain congressional approval for imposing tariffs on national security grounds. On this note, the weekend will be interesting with the G-7 nations holding talks in Canada on Friday and Saturday; Trade and tariffs are likely to be discussed.

Key risk events

Then all eyes turn to The FOMC. Data on Friday showed that the U.S. created 223,000 new jobs for the month of May. Unemployment was down to an 18-year low of 3.8% reinforcing expectations that the Fed will raise interest rates at least two more times in 2018 following its March rate increase and June is already discounted in the price of gold. Then we have the historic summit between Trump and N.Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un. Trump met with former North Korean spy chief Kim Yong Chol for about 90 minutes Friday — the highest-level North Korean official to visit the US in 18 years. Trump stresses that the Singapore meeting is part of a "process" that will go on for some time:

"I told them today, 'Take your time. We can go fast. We can go slowly.'"

Gold levels

The price continues to consolidate around the 50-W SMA below just the 1300 handle but now above the previous weekly low down at 1282 and has eyes on a break of the 21-D SMA at 1300. The bulls need to get above the 200-D SMA, 1307, ahead of the 100-D SMA, 1324, that guards a reversal to the key 1360 level. The 100-W SMA is a key downside target at 1277.

Gold Near Steady; Fresh Inputs Awaited

Jim Wyckoff Tuesday June 05, 2018

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are trading near unchanged in quieter U.S. trading early today. Metals traders are looking for some new fundamental news to help drive prices. August Comex gold futures were last down $0.40 an ounce at $1,296.80. July Comex silver was last down $0.011 at $16.42 an ounce.

World stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward modestly higher openings when the New York day session begins. The U.S. stock indexes are at 2.5-month highs as traders and investors are in upbeat, risk-taking moods at present. The lack of risk aversion in the marketplace at present is bearish for safe-haven gold and silver markets.

So far early this week, the marketplace is mostly looking past U.S. tensions with its major trading partners that threaten to boil over into a worldwide trade war.

In overnight news, Australia’s central bank left its monetary policy unchanged at its regular meeting Tuesday.

The key “outside markets” today find Nymex crude oil prices slightly weaker and trading around $64.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker today on a corrective pullback from recent gains that last week pushed prices to a 10.5-month high.

U.S. economic data due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the U.S. services purchasing managers index (PMI), the ISM non-manufacturing report on business, the IBD/TIPP economic optimism index, and the global services PMI.

Technically, August gold bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above the May high of $1,332.40. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,286.80. First resistance is seen at $1,300.00 and then at Monday’s high of $1,302.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,293.10 and then at the May low of $1,286.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

July silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.07. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $16.615 and then at $16.74. Next support is seen at last week’s low of $16.31 and then at $16.19. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Gold Prices Subdued as Traders Remain Wary of Further Fed Rate Hikes

JUNE 4, 2018 1:44 PM EST

SOURCE: INVESTING.COM

Investing.com – Gold prices were roughly flat Monday as a Federal Reserve interest rate hike expected next week kept a lid on upside in the precious metal despite concerns of a U.S.-China trade war underpinning safe-haven demand.

Gold futures for June delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.30 or 0.10%, to $1,298.10 a troy ounce.

Gold prices traded in narrow range as traders weighed the prospect of further rate hikes against the return of safe-haven demand as U.S.-China trade talks over the weekend yielded limited progress, raising the prospect of a trade war between the world’s largest two economies.

Also holding back the precious metal were expectations the Federal Reserve would hike rates for the second time this year, reducing demand for yellow metal. While the dollar’s rebound off session lows also kept a lid on an advance in gold.

Gold is sensitive to moves higher in both bond yields and the U.S. dollar – A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of foreign currency while a rise in U.S. rates, lift the opportunity cost of holding gold as it pays no interest.

The odds of faster pace of rate hikes, meanwhile, have regained momentum over the past week as investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool showed the odds of a fourth rate hike at the Fed’s December meeting rose to 38.7% from 26.6% the previous week.

In other precious metal trade, silver futures rose 0.02% to $16.45 a troy ounce, while platinum futures fell 0.62% to $901.10 an ounce.

Copper rose 1.15% to $3.13.

Gold To Do Better In June As Dollar Rally Stalls

Anna Golubova Sunday June 03, 2018

(Kitco News) - Gold will have a better month in June following a drop below the key psychological level of $1,300 an ounce in May, said INTL FCStone, adding that the U.S. dollar rally will run out of steam.

The yellow metal prices are likely to trade between $1,280-$1,335 an ounce in June, wrote INTL FCStone analyst Edward Meir in a report published on Sunday.

One of the central triggers to give gold a reprieve is a stalling U.S. dollar, led by the sentiment that the Federal Reserve’s June rate hike has already been priced in by the markets.

“Once [the rate hike] is out of the way, the market will be focusing on the next and potentially last move before the Fed stops for a while. We also think that the rate picture may have run its course as well, at least for now,” Meir said.

Trade war rhetoric will also play a central role in driving gold prices in June, the report pointed out.

“A steadily deteriorating trade situation is arguably bearish for the dollar (and bullish for gold), but should the situation improve, we could see the dollar rally and pressure gold in the process,” Meir said.

On top of that, there are a number of geopolitical risks to keep in mind as the summer gets going, including Italy, Spain and North Korea, the analyst added.

“Italy and Spain, the region’s most heavily indebted countries (after Greece), continue to struggle politically, although the worse seems to be over,” he said. “The other major event will fall on June 12th, which is when President Trump is supposed to meet with the North Korean leader. Any semblance of a rapprochement will be net bearish for gold, albeit temporarily, since political events tend to have a short-term impact on prices.”rket in May by hitting a fresh 2018 low of $1,280 an ounce, pressured down by strong U.S. dollar and rising U.S. yields.

As markets opened on Monday, June 3, spot gold on Kitco.com was trading flat at $1,292.90, down 0.04% on the day, while August Comex gold futures were last at $1,297.20, down 0.16% on the day.

U.S. Hedge Fund To Kick Off Investor Alliance To Shake Up Gold Sector

Anna Golubova Sunday June 03, 2018

(Kitco News) - In what is being referred to as an “unprecedented” move, a well-known gold bull and the man behind the U.S. hedge fund Paulson & Co, John Paulson, is creating an investor alliance that will work on turning the gold mining sector around, Reuters reported citing sources.

The alliance will be named the Shareholders Gold Council (SGC) and will consist of a dozen of investors who will be looking into how to improve returns of gold mining companies.

Some of the big names include Delbrook Capital, Livermore Partners, Tocqueville Asset Management, Kopernik Global Investors, Adrian Day Asset Management, Apogee Global Advisors and Equinox Partners, Reuters reported.

Two other huge names — BlackRock and Van Eck Associates — are currently in discussions to join the group, people familiar with the matter told the news agency.

The launch date is set for some time June, the report specified.

“The alliance is unusual because there is no similar group of investors targeting a specific sector, activism experts say,” Reuters reported.

“I have never heard of an industry wide shakeup effort by a coalition of major shareholders,” chair of Norton Rose Fulbright Canada Walied Soliman told Reuters, adding that the move is “unprecedented.”

The news was first floated around during a gold conference last September.

The announcement comes at a much needed time for the gold mining sector. The value of the Canadian gold mining index is down 40% over the past decade, while gold prices are up 46% and the S&P 500 index is also up 95% over the same time period.

Some of the things to be taken on by the investors group are compiling research reports on the gold mining sector. The goal is to improve accountability by paying closer attention to mining companies, with the hope that it will boost “capital allocation, compensation and corporate governance,” Reuters said.

Paulson is known for being a perpetual gold bull. Just three years ago he was holding onto about 10 million shares in the SPDR Gold Trust. Since then, the total has dropped down to 4.3 million shares as of the end of Q1 2018, but Paulson is still very much interested in the yellow metal

Gold To Battle ‘The Perfect Storm’ As Markets Focus On Fed’s June Rate Hike

Anna Golubova Friday June 01, 2018

(Kitco News) - In a quiet week for economic data, the gold market will be laser-focused on the rapidly approaching Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.

Among some commodity analysts, sentiment in the gold market has turned decisively bearish as prices readjust to a more certain rate hike outlook on June 13 following strong U.S. employment figures and further upside in the U.S. dollar.

The May U.S. nonfarm payrolls report took economists by surprise on Friday, with 223,000 new jobs created last month versus the expected 189,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 3.8%, marking an 18-year low.

Following the optimistic data release, all signs now point to a June rate hike, Capital Economics analyst Simona Gambarini told Kitco News on Friday. CME FedWatch Tool is currently showing a 94% probability of another 25 basis points hike in less than two weeks.

But, since the rate hike was already largely priced, most investors are now focusing on the Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conferences scheduled for immediately after the FOMC announcement, Gambarini noted.

Key things to watch will be the Fed’s outlook on inflation and geopolitical tensions: “Investors are not willing to take a much bigger position until the FOMC meeting. They are looking what [Powell] says during the conference and central bank’s view on inflation … [The] Fed’s opinion on geopolitics will also be important. If the Fed were to delay hikes or single out geopolitics [as an obstacle], then that would be a positive for gold.”

Gambarini projects three more rate hikes this year, bringing the 2018 total to four. She also added that even though rate hikes are a significant headwind for gold, it all depends on the U.S. dollar’s reaction.

“It’s really a dollar story’s — stronger dollar weighing on gold prices. If the dollar remains at the current level or falls back, then gold prices should not be weighed down too much by the upcoming hikes,” Gambarini said.

A significant downward driver for gold in the long-term could be the Fed that chooses not to stop monetary policy tightening once it gets to 2%, said chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management Colin Cieszynski.

“Fed could continue to raise rates every quarter in 2018 and 2019. It [might] not stop once [it] gets to 2%,” Cieszynski said.

The Power Of Geopolitics

Geopolitical risks, which gave hope to the gold bulls this past week, have more or less de-escalated, forcing a more bearish gold outlook on analysts.

“Italian and Spanish political uncertainties are getting resolved,” Cieszynski said. “[Gold is battling] almost a perfect storm of headwinds as we are seeing spectacular numbers out of the U.S.”

Even this week’s gold price action failed to reflect increasing geopolitical tensions, including trade war rhetoric between the U.S. and its allies following President Donald Trump’s announcement about the introduction of tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada, Mexico, and the European Union.

“Normally, we would expect escalating geopolitical tensions to have a positive impact on gold, but prices have not reacted much, mainly due to a stronger U.S. dollar weighing on gold,” Gambarini said.

But, investors should not get discouraged by gold’s short-term weakness, as some analysts are projecting to see a much stronger precious metal in the second half of the year.

“Gold will rise above $1,300 an ounce towards Q4,” said commodity strategist at TD Securities Ryan McKay. “The Fed has signaled that they are willing to let inflation overshoot and that narrative will start to take hold after this Fed meeting and people will begin to expect a ‘go-slow’ approach from the central bank. That should see real rates a bit lower or at least not higher, which will drain some of the strength out of the U.S. dollar.”

Key Levels To Watch

Next week, gold will see a follow-through of Friday’s U.S. employment data hit, stated McKay, who is also bearish on gold in the short-term.

“Gold will tread lower into $1,280s next week,” McKay told Kitco News.

The metal will spend the next week searching for a new direction, research analyst at FXTM Lukman Otunuga said in a note on Friday.

“Investors will continue to closely observe how prices react around the psychological $1,300 level,” Otunuga wrote. “From a technical standpoint, repeated weakness below $1,300 could encourage a decline towards $1,280. Alternatively, a solid breakout above $1,300 may invite an incline higher towards $1324.”

Gold has failed to sustainably breach the $1,300 this past week after trying to push the $1,305-$1,308 region at least four times, stated MKS SA senior precious metals dealer Alex Thorndike.

“Gold remains choppy at this juncture and lacking any technical direction at present, although we do believe a short-term base has likely formed around $1,280-90,” Thorndike said in a note published on Friday.

Data On The Horizon

With everyone focused on the June 13th Fed meeting, next week’s data will be secondary, according to McKay.

Traders are closely watching the U.S. durable goods orders report scheduled for Monday, Markit PMI to be released on Tuesday, and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, also set for Tuesday.

Gold is headed for weekly close below $1300

JUNE 1, 2018 4:32 PM EST

SOURCE: FXSTREET

DXY stays above 94 as greenback finds demand on upbeat data.

Risk appetite heightens in the last session of the week.

Gold loses $5 on the week.

After failing to break above the 200-DMA on Thursday, the XAU/USD pair spent the last trading day of the week under modest pressure. As of writing, the troy ounce of precious metal was trading $1293.75, losing $4.5, or 0.35%, on the day.

An improved market sentiment and a stronger USD strengthened the bearish momentum of the pair during the second half of the day. The data from the United States showed that the unemployment rate dropped to its lowest level since 2000 at 3.8% and the nonfarm employment increased by 223,000 in May vs. the market estimate of 188K. Moreover, the business activity in the manufacturing sector continued to expand at a robust pace.

The upbeat data reassured markets that the Fed would go for another rate hike in June and lifted the US Dollar Index to a daily high of 94.44. The probability of a June hike is back above 90% according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.

In the meantime, major equity indexes in the United States made a strong comeback after falling sharply on the United States decision to impose steel and aluminum tariffs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.9% while the S&P 500 rose a little over 1% as both indexes turned green for the week. In addition to the data pointing to a strong economy, news of Donald Trump finally confirming the meeting with Kim Jong Un on June 12 helped the risk appetite stay high during the session, which hurt the demand for traditional safe-havens such as gold.

Technical outlook

The XAU/USD pair fluctuated in a relatively tight $20 range in the past two weeks and failed to make a decisive move in either direction to determine its next short-term trend. In fact, the CCI indicator on the daily graph stays near the 0 mark, supporting the neutral outlook of the pair. On the upside, $1300 (psychological level) is the first interim resistance. Above that level, $1307 (200-DMA) is a critical hurdle for the pair and only a daily close above here could open the door for further gains toward $1317 (50-DMA).

On the flip side, short-term supports remain unchanged at $1292/90 (May 24 low/Jun. 1 low), $1282 (May 21 low) and $1273 (Dec. 25 low).

Gold Remains Above $1280 as the USD Reaches Target High

David Erfle Friday June 01, 2018

(Kitco News) - In this column a few weeks ago, I mentioned gold may continue to be under pressure until we see the rising U.S. dollar reach a technical target of 95 on the cash-settled index and I had assumed at the time, gold would be below $1280 when it was reached. However, I was pleasantly surprised to see the safe haven metal trading back above $1300 when it hit 94.97 earlier this week. The 10-year Treasury Note plunging well below the 3% threshold since last Friday has also been supportive of gold and the yellow metal was able to manage a monthly close just above this critical level yesterday.

Furthermore, both gold and the U.S. dollar rose in unison on Tuesday, receiving safe haven inflows from euro zone investors while the yield on Italy's two-year government bond jumped from 0.8% to 2.7%. It was the biggest one-day jump for Italian two-year bonds since 1989. The political crisis in Italy spooked the global marketplace this week when the Italian Democratic Party (PD) called for parliament to be dissolved “immediately” in order to hold elections in Italy as soon as July. Sources from several of Italy’s main parties said they were in favor of fresh elections on July 29, following an inconclusive vote on March 4. The Italian economy is the third largest in the euro and has been anemic, while the country is also heavily in debt.

If the crisis continues and leads to this election taking place, it will create more doubt in the minds of investors on whether Italy keeps the euro as its currency. And if Italy leaves, it’s unlikely the euro could survive. This sentiment may spread to other European nations and gold would likely draw significant safe-haven buying along with the U.S. dollar. While the political uncertainties in the euro zone continue or even increase, gold should remain in good demand as a safe haven.

Although there was a strong bounce from critical support at 115 in the euro earlier this week, I would expect safe haven buying coming into both gold and the dollar to continue if the Italian situation is the catalyst which eventually breaks this important level. The euro is down 7% against the U.S. dollar since the beginning of February and it is now trading at a 10-month low.

Moreover, gold has been soaring in Turkish Lira since the government withdrew its reserves of bullion from the Federal Reserve earlier this month. President Erdogan has asked all Turkish people to convert their dollars to Lira this week and there have been rumors of a possible monetary collapse in the Lira. It appears Erdogan is positioning himself to be able to seek his own power that would be contrary to international policy.

Gold stocks continue to trade sideways with little interest and volume has slowed to a trickle on many of the resource stocks I own and/or follow, making illiquid juniors difficult to sell. The GDX has continued to languish in a tight range between $21-$23 on historically low trade-weighted volume and tightening Bollinger Bands. Long periods of low volatility and shrinking Bollinger bandwidth usually leads to a big move in either direction and the catalyst could very well be the upcoming Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 12-13th.

Therefore, caution is still advised in the gold complex until the market digests the contents of the speech from the FOMC meeting, which will be given by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at 2:15 EST on June 13th. Immediately following the speech next month, investors will be closely following the press conference as well for more clues regarding monetary policy.

Gold Pressured By Strong U.S. Jobs Report

Jim Wyckoff Friday June 01, 2018

(Kitco News) - Gold and silver prices are lower in early U.S. trading Friday, in the wake of a strong U.S. jobs report for May that boosted the U.S. dollar index and also hints at a more aggressive monetary policy from the Federal Reserve. August Comex gold futures were last down $8.80 an ounce at $1,295.90. July Comex silver was last down $0.098 at $16.365 an ounce.

Friday morning’s U.S. jobs report for May saw the key non-farm payrolls number come in at up 223,000, which was much higher than the expected figure of up around 190,000. Wednesday’s ADP jobs report showed a rise of 178,000. Other components of the jobs report were also strong, which suggests the U.S. Federal Reserve can be a bit more aggressive on its pace of raising interest rates.

Gold prices hit their daily lows right after the jobs report, while the U.S. dollar index hit its daily high. However, the gold market has pared its losses that were seen right after the jobs data was released.

World stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mixed and European indexes mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward higher openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, worries regarding the financial and political stability of Italy were somewhat assuaged when the two major antiestablishment parties made a deal on a coalition government. This is apparently the better alternative than new elections, according to the sense of the marketplace at present.

The U.S. on Thursday implementing previously announced tariffs on imports of aluminum and steel does have traders and investors worried about a global trade war. Retaliatory tariffs against U.S. products are already being announced from other countries.

The other key “outside market” today finds Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading just above $65.00 a barrel.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, the ISM manufacturing report on business, the global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto industry sales.

Technically, August gold bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above the May high of $1,332.40. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,286.80. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,304.80 and then at last week’s high of $1,312.60. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,293.10 and then at the May low of $1,286.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

July silver futures bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $17.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $16.07. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $16.615 and then at last week’s high of $16.74. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $16.31 and then at $16.19. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

Fibonacci And The Golden Ratio

By Justin Kuepper

There is a special ratio that can be used to describe the proportions of everything from nature's smallest building blocks, such as atoms, to the most advanced patterns in the universe, such as unimaginably large celestial bodies. Nature relies on this innate proportion to maintain balance, but the financial markets also seem to conform to this 'golden ratio.' Here we take a look at some technical analysis tools that have been developed to take advantage of it.

The Mathematics

Mathematicians, scientists and naturalists have known this ratio for years. It's derived from something known as the Fibonacci sequence, named after its Italian founder, Leonardo Fibonacci (whose birth is assumed to be around 1175 AD and death around 1250 AD). Each term in this sequence is simply the sum of the two preceding terms (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.).

But this sequence is not all that important; rather, it is the quotient of the adjacent terms that possesses an amazing proportion, roughly 1.618, or its inverse 0.618. This proportion is known by many names: the golden ratio, the golden mean, PHI and the divine proportion, among others. So, why is this number so important? Well, almost everything has dimensional properties that adhere to the ratio of 1.618, so it seems to have a fundamental function for the building blocks of nature.

Prove It!

Don't believe it? Take honeybees, for example. If you divide the female bees by the male bees in any given hive, you will get 1.618. Sunflowers, which have opposing spirals of seeds, have a 1.618 ratio between the diameters of each rotation. This same ratio can be seen in relationships between different components throughout nature.

Still don't believe it? Need something that's easily measured? Try measuring from your shoulder to your fingertips, and then divide this number by the length from your elbow to your fingertips. Or try measuring from your head to your feet, and divide that by the length from your belly button to your feet. Are the results the same? Somewhere in the area of 1.618? The golden ratio is seemingly unavoidable.

But that doesn't mean that it works in finance … does it? Actually, the markets have the very same mathematical base as these natural phenomena. Below we will examine some ways in which this ratio can be applied to finance, and we'll show you some charts to prove it!

The Fibonacci Studies and Finance

When used in technical analysis, the golden ratio is typically translated into three percentages: – 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. However, more multiples can be used when needed, such as 23.6%, 161.8%, 423% and so on. There are four primary methods for applying the Fibonacci sequence to finance: retracements, arcs, fans and time zones.

1. Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements use horizontal lines to indicate areas of support or resistance. They are calculated by first locating the high and low of the chart. Then five lines are drawn: the first at 100% (the high on the chart), the second at 61.8%, the third at 50%, the fourth at 38.2% and the last one at 0% (the low on the chart). After a significant price movement up or down, the new support and resistance levels are often at or near these lines.

Created Using MetaTrader

2. Fibonacci Arcs

Finding the high and low of a chart is the first step to composing Fibonacci arcs. Then, with a compass-like movement, three curved lines are drawn at 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, from the desired point. These lines anticipate the support and resistance levels, and areas of ranging.

Created Using MetaTrader

3. Fibonacci Fans

Fibonacci fans are composed of diagonal lines. After the high and low of the chart is located, an invisible vertical line is drawn though the rightmost point. This invisible line is then divided into 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%, and lines are drawn from the leftmost point through each of these points. These lines indicate areas of support and resistance.

Created Using MetaTrader

4. Fibonacci Time Zones

Unlike the other Fibonacci methods, time zones are a series of vertical lines. They are composed by dividing a chart into segments with vertical lines spaced apart in increments that conform to the Fibonacci sequence (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, etc.). These lines indicate areas in which major price movement can be expected.

Created Using MetaTrader

The Fibonacci studies are great indicators of likely areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other forms of technical analysis.

Conclusion

These Fibonacci studies are not intended to provide the primary indications for timing the entry and exit of a stock; however, they are useful for estimating areas of support and resistance. Many people use combinations of Fibonacci studies to obtain a more accurate forecast. For example, a trader may observe the intersecting points in a combination of the Fibonacci arcs and resistances. Many more use the Fibonacci studies in conjunction with other forms of technical analysis. For example, the Fibonacci studies are often used with Elliott Waves to predict the extent of the retracements after different waves. Hopefully you can find your own niche use for the Fibonacci studies, and add it to your set of investment tools!

8 Reasons To Own Gold

Gold is respected throughout the world for its value and rich history, which has been interwoven into cultures for thousands of years. Coins containing gold appeared around 800 B.C., and the first pure gold coins were struck during the rein of King Croesus of Lydia about 300 years later. Throughout the centuries, people have continued to hold gold for various reasons. Below are eight reasons to own gold today.

A History of Holding Its Value

Unlike paper currency, coins or other assets, gold has maintained its value throughout the ages. People see gold as a way to pass on and preserve their wealth from one generation to the next.

Weakness of the U.S. Dollar

Although the U.S. dollar is one of the world's most important reserve currencies, when the value of the dollar falls against other currencies as it did between 1998 and 2008, this often prompts people to flock to the security of gold, which raises gold prices . The price of gold nearly tripled between 1998 and 2008, reaching the $1,000-an-ounce milestone in early 2008 and nearly doubling between 2008 and 2012, hitting around the $1800-$1900 mark. The decline in the U.S. dollar occurred for a number of reasons, including the country's large budget and trade deficits and a large increase in the money supply.

Inflation

Gold has historically been an excellent hedge against inflation, because its price tends to rise when the cost of living increases. Over the past 50 years investors have seen gold prices soar and the stock market plunge during high-inflation years.

Deflation

Deflation, a period in which prices decrease, business activity slows and the economy is burdened by excessive debt, has not been seen globally since the Great Depression of the 1930s. During that time, the relative purchasing power of gold soared while other prices dropped sharply.

Geopolitical Uncertainty

Gold retains its value not only in times of financial uncertainty, but in times of geopolitical uncertainty. It is often called the "crisis commodity," because people flee to its relative safety when world tensions rise; during such times, it often outperforms other investments. For example, gold prices experienced some major price movements this year in response to the crisis occurring in the European Union. Its price often rises the most when confidence in governments is low.

Supply Constraints

Much of the supply of gold in the market since the 1990s has come from sales of gold bullion from the vaults of global central banks. This selling by global central banks slowed greatly in 2008. At the same time, production of new gold from mines had been declining since 2000. According to BullionVault.com, annual gold-mining output fell from 2,573 metric tons in 2000 to 2,444 metric tons in 2007 (however, according to Goldsheetlinks.com, gold saw a rebound in production with output hitting nearly 2,700 metric tons in 2011.) It can take from five to 10 years to bring a new mine into production. As a general rule, reduction in the supply of gold increases gold prices.

Increasing Demand

In previous years, increased wealth of emerging market economies boosted demand for gold. In many of these countries, gold is intertwined into the culture. India is one of the largest gold-consuming nations in the world; it has many uses there, including jewelry. As such, the Indian wedding season in October is traditionally the time of the year that sees the highest global demand for gold (though it has taken a tumble in 2012.) In China, where gold bars are a traditional form of saving, the demand for gold has been steadfast.

Demand for gold has also grown among investors. Many are beginning to see commodities, particularly gold, as an investment class into which funds should be allocated. In fact, SPDR Gold Trust, became one of the largest ETFs in the U.S., as well as one of the world's largest holders of gold bullion in 2008, only four years after its inception.

Portfolio Diversification

The key to diversification is finding investments that are not closely correlated to one another; gold has historically had a negative correlation to stocks and other financial instruments. Recent history bears this out:

The 1970s was great for gold, but terrible for stocks.

The 1980s and 1990s were wonderful for stocks, but horrible for gold.

2008 saw stocks drop substantially as consumers migrated to gold.

Properly diversified investors combine gold with stocks and bonds in a portfolio to reduce the overall volatility and risk.

The Bottom Line

Gold should be an important part of a diversified investment portfolio because its price increases in response to events that cause the value of paper investments, such as stocks and bonds, to decline. Although the price of gold can be volatile in the short term, it has always maintained its value over the long term. Through the years, it has served as a hedge against inflation and the erosion of major currencies, and thus is an investment well worth considering.