Chapter 2: effect of base-rate on posterior predictive result

For example, if the contingency table data had instead been:

URNall=100;

HIT=45; MISS=5; CR=47; FA=3;

URNhm=HIT+MISS;

URNcf=CR+FA;

it would change the disease base rate from p(D|i)=0.005 to p(D|i)=0.5, and the posterior probabilities to p(D|+,i)=0.9375 and p(D|-,i)=0.0962.