On November 8th, voters headed off to the polls to decide which party would control the House of Representatives and the Senate as well as a multitude of governorships. What polls predicted to be a great night for Republicans turned into an embarrassing struggle. FiveThirtyEight.com projected Republicans to take the House of Representatives by a comfortable majority, this was considered a certainty by many other polls going into election night. However, this was completely rebuked as Democrats were able to flip many Republican seats and defend incumbent ones, calling the Republican House majority into question. Republican victories in Upstate New York were able to make up the difference and save the House majority. Even so, the Republicans will have an extremely narrow majority, a far cry from the red wave I and many others were anticipating.

The Senate was a true nightmare scenario for Republicans. They were able to narrowly hold Senate seats in North Carolina and Wisconsin, while JD Vance was able to win by a comfortable but disappointing margin in Ohio. In Pennsylvania, Democrat John Fetterman beat his Republican challenger, Dr. Mehmet Oz, by a comfortable margin, a disastrous defeat in what was projected to be a close race. Democrats held their Senate seats in the southwest with Mark Kelly and Catherine Cortez Masto winning their elections. The Senate race in Georgia went to a run-off held on December 6th, and Democrat incumbent Raphael Warnock went in with an advantage, and defeated his Republican challenger Herschel Walker.

Despite all this some hopeful aspects on election night did exist. Republican governor Ron DeSantis was able to win by nearly 20% over his Democratic challenger, Senator Marco Rubio also defended his Senate seat by a large margin. Republican gubernatorial candidate Lee Zeldin narrowly lost to incumbent Democrat Kathy Hochul, a great performance for Republicans in an otherwise solid Democrat state. Overall, the anticipated wave of Republican support at the polls never materialized, leaving the party to pick the pieces.

For me and many others, these results were bewildering, to say the least. The American people demonstrated complacency in a failing economy, the invasion at our southern border, and skyrocketing crime rates. The Biden administration has even stated there will be no significant shift in their policy approach. A Republican red wave evaporated, leaving only behind a red ripple. A perfect storm of low turnout in rural areas and a whole new generation of young progressive voters was a significant reason behind the Republican defeat. Rural apathy for turning out to vote most noticeably gave Democrats a victory in Pennsylvania, a race I will analyze later in this article. President Biden’s student debt forgiveness program was able to push young voters into supporting Democrats. This program was, as expected, ruled unconstitutional and canceled right after election day. However, the Republican defeat can be mostly attributed less to good Democrat performance and strategy and more to the Republicans themselves. With the Supreme Court case Roe vs. Wade being overturned, Republicans were put on the defensive on the abortion issue. While I do not agree with the widespread promotion and legalization of the practice, this simply is not an issue Republicans can win on. The solidly Republican states of Kentucky and Montana up-held the right to an abortion through ballot measures. If victory on this issue can not be achieved in deep red states, achieving it anywhere else would be laughable. This issue however does not nearly explain the Republican defeat at the polls. Republican defeat can be more attributed to an outright betrayal from the party’s leadership, leaving many candidates inadequately funded.

Many of my fellow conservatives believe these results are due to the influence of former President Donald Trump. This theory is further pushed by major Republican media outlets and members of the Republican establishment. This can conclusively be proven false with election data comparing 2020 to 2022, let's look at the Pennsylvania Senate race. In this election Democrat, John Fetterman wins substantially over Republican Dr. Oz. Both Donald Trump and Dr. Oz suffered defeats in Pennsylvania for radically different reasons. Republican detractors of Trump claim his extreme right-wing populist ideology alienated voters in suburban communities surrounding Philadelphia; they claim victory could be achieved in this state by adopting more moderate and establishment candidates. The defeat of Dr. Oz is a textbook example of why this strategy fails. While Oz did get an endorsement from Trump, that seemed to be the greatest extent of assistance from the former president. Few rallies were held compared to previous election seasons, suburban election trends reflect this.