Climate Change Causes Lots of Natural Disasters, But They Aren't Dangerous

Jack Ryan Johnson '22

Almost every day, media outlets across the world parade natural disasters around as physical proof that climate change is finally here, and it’s dangerous. They misrepresent data, use scare-tactics, and toss out overblown phrases like “it’s now or never,” “‘the greatest global health crisis,” and “record-breaking levels.” But climate change-related natural disasters are actually less dangerous than ever.

There’s one thing that the media gets right: the frequency of natural disasters has skyrocketed in the last 100 years. In 1905, there were 5 major natural disasters reported globally. In 2005, that number was 432 (over an 8000% increase).

However, the frequency of natural disasters does not matter; the impact of the disasters does. Deaths from natural disasters globally have never been lower. From 1920-2020, annual worldwide natural disaster-related deaths have decreased from about 500,000 to 14,000. In 2021, projected deaths are about 6,600 globally. That’s a 99% decrease in mortality over the past century. And, that decrease in mortality doesn’t even take into account the 300% increase in global population over the last 100 years. There are more people, more disasters, and less people are dying from them.

Total net costs of damages have increased globally, but that is primarily attributed to the increase in number and value of structures damaged by disasters. There’s just a lot more expensive infrastructure around the world than there was 100 years ago. And, again, there are 300% more people. Nonetheless, total costs of damages from natural disasters worldwide as a percentage of global GDP actually decreased from 0.26% to 0.18% from 1980-2020.

97% of all natural disaster deaths come from droughts, floods, and storms. Over the past century, droughts have been responsible for about 60% of weather-related deaths; mortality from droughts has decreased by 99.9%. Floods have been responsible for about 30% of weather-related deaths; mortality has decreased by 98%. And storms have been responsible for the remaining 7% of deaths; mortality has decreased by 55%.

Overall, natural disasters are becoming less dangerous, better-managed, and communities globally are becoming more resilient and safer. This is a combination of several factors, including global improvements in infrastructure, economy, and technology. Deaths from natural disasters can’t be exaggerated, so biased sources tend to focus only on the increasing frequency of the disasters themselves. Furthermore, some sources try to show novel risks of natural disasters as evidence of climate change’s threat. For example, one study published in the United States in 1999 (which was later retracted) claimed that “suicide rates increase after severe earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes.” It’s not that more people were experiencing mental health crises as the result of natural disasters—it’s that more people were surviving natural disasters long enough to experience those crises. That’s not to say that natural disasters don’t have devastating impacts. It’s just that those impacts are dwarfed by other issues that are overshadowed by extreme weather. Only 0.07% of global mortality is the result of natural disasters, so it’s time that fear is directed to more genuine killers.