MSCA-COFUND-Athenea3i 2017

Flood risk analysis under global warming for long-term coastal cities planning - FLOWPLAN

Global warming is changing the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation and sea-level events. Coastal urban areas are becoming more vulnerable to flooding from sea-level rise, storm surges and increased precipitation. Vulnerability is aggravated by the concentration of population and economic activity in these areas, which results in degradation of the geomorphic systems that offer natural protection. It is not sufficient to implement short-term mitigation measures to prepare and respond to flood emergencies. Coastal cities must adapt to future flood risk conditions, which requires knowledge-based long term planning.

This project will develop methods for planning and development of coastal cities in the context of concurrent global warming and increased human-induced pressures. Risks will be evaluated in a holistic manner, considering the potential joint occurrence of various types of flooding, and the spatial and temporal gradients of concomitant and interacting atmospheric and marine agents at the coast. A novel integrated hydrologic-hydraulic-coastal modeling framework for flood hazard assessment will enable the combined modeling of fluvial and pluvial flows, tides, surges and waves. In addition to traditional structural measures, such as dams, levees or pumping stations, nature-based flood defense solutions will be integrated into the planning process. Planning alternatives will be assessed considering a multi-objective approach that coordinates flood risk reduction and natural resources protection with economic and social criteria. Given the stochastic nature of climate and economic agents, the uncertainty in the prediction of the flood risks will be assessed, allowing for robust decision-making. This project will bring together scientific and technical approaches from different disciplines such as spatial planning, coastal engineering and socio-economics, to address flood risks from an integrated perspective.