Coral Reefs' Race Against Climate Change

Sierra Champagne

Abstract: Climate change is rapidly declining the quality of our Earth and its inhabitants. The Earth has consistently warmed by 0.32°F each decade for the last 40 years, and is estimated to continue increasing. (Climate Change: Global Temperatures, Lindsey et al, 2021.) As the Earth both warms and experiences high amounts of carbon emissions due to humans burning fossil fuels, the Ocean absorbs almost 90% of the heat (Climate Content: Ocean Heat Change, Dahlman et al, 2021.) and 25% of the atmospheric CO2 that is released. (Ocean Atmosphere CO2 Exchange, Sabine, 2015.)This results in both temperature increases and acidification of the water. The focus of this study is to analyze the ramifications that are starting to manifest in coral reefs around the world due to climate change. Several studies have been performed on the response of coral reefs using very high CO2 emission scenarios and associated temperature increases, while fewer focus on the lowest emissions scenario. A meta-analysis will be performed using data from these past studies to demonstrate a statistical relationship between CO2 emissions and coral health metrics. This relationship will then be used to evaluate the impacts of climate change on coral reef health under emission scenarios that we are expected to reach by the end of the century.