Does the Misery Index Influence the results of Presidential elections in the United States?

Lance Savage

Abstract:
I seek to know the relationship between the Misery Index and a Candidate's chances of winning reelection as the President of the United States. This hypothesis will be tested in two ways. The first being that we will be using regression to directly compare the misery index (comprising inflation and unemployment), and presidential approval ratings on a monthly basis. Secondly, I will be broadly comparing the relationship between several factors that influence economic stress with factors that influence elections. Much of these include consumer sentiment, consumption spending, interest rates, and voter turnout. The analysis of such factors may help to provide insight into how and by how much the Presidential Elections are influenced by the state of economic misery and so would prove that when there is a certain threshold of economic misery that would lead to action in which voters would influence outcomes of elections. Thus this may allow us to realize the repercussions of actions and events that led to economic misery in the first place.