Objective: 

Students will use an unplugged probability activity to develop a probability model by observing frequencies of different candy colors from random pulls. They will make predictions about the likelihood of drawing a certain color, based on observed data, and refine their probability model as more data is collected.

Materials Needed:

• Bags of colored candy (e.g., Skittles or M&Ms)

• Paper and pencils for recording data

• Chart paper for group results

Steps:

• Introduction: 

  • Begin by asking students, “What is probability, and how can we predict the chances of something happening?” 

  • Introduce the idea that we can use observed frequencies to build probability models, even if the outcomes are not equal. 

  • Explain that today they will test their predictions by drawing candies from a bag and analyzing the results.

• Group Activity: 

  • Divide students into small groups. 

  • Each group will pull a candy from their bag, record the color, and replace the candy. 

  • After several rounds, they will count the occurrences of each color and use this data to predict the next color they might pull. 

  • Encourage students to calculate the probabilities and compare them to the results they observed.

• Testing and Refining: 

  • After calculating the predicted probabilities, students will continue drawing candies, adjusting their predictions as they gather more data. 

  • Each group will compare their predictions with actual results and discuss why their predictions may or may not have been accurate.

• Discussion: 

  • Facilitate a class discussion where groups share their predictions and outcomes. 

  • Ask questions like, “How did your data change your predictions?” and “What might happen if we added more of one color to the bag?” 

  • Discuss how this activity models real-world applications, such as predicting weather or market trends based on observed data.

Equity and Access: 

Provide pre-counted sets of candy colors for students who may need extra support with data recording. Allow students to work in pairs to ensure everyone participates in data collection and analysis.

Real-World Application: 

Connect this lesson to real-world scenarios where probability is used, such as making predictions in sports or economics. Highlight how industries use probability models to forecast future events based on observed data.

CS Practice(s):

• Recognizing and Defining Computational Problems: Students identify how changing the distribution of colors affects the probability of drawing a specific color.

Standard(s):

• CA CCSS Math 7.SP.7

• CA CS 6-8.DA.9

Objective: 

Students will use Scratch, App Lab, or another coding platform to create a simulation that models the probability of drawing colored candies from a virtual bag. They will adjust variables (e.g., color ratios) to see how changes impact the probability of selecting each color and analyze the results to refine their predictions.

Materials Needed:

• Computers or tablets 

• Optional: Pre-made coding template with a basic candy simulation

Steps:

• Introduction: 

  • Begin by discussing how we use probability models to predict events, such as drawing candy colors from a bag. 

  • Explain that in this activity, students will create a simulation to model this process. 

  • Highlight how adjusting variables, like the number of candies of each color, will affect their predictions.

• Group Activity: 

  • In pairs, students will create basic simulation of drawing candies from a virtual bag. 

  • Students will modify the number of each color of candy by adjusting variables within the program. 

  • They will run the simulation multiple times, recording the results and noting how the changes in candy numbers impact the predicted outcomes.

• Creating and Coding: 

  • Guide students through modifying the code to adjust the number of each color candy in the bag. 

  • Encourage them to predict how their changes will affect the simulation results. 

  • As they run the simulation, they will collect data on which colors are selected most often.

• Testing and Refining: 

  • After several rounds of running their simulations, students will analyze the data and compare it to their predictions. 

  • They will adjust the color ratios and run the simulation again, refining their predictions based on the new data.

• Presentation and Discussion: 

  • Each group will present their simulation, explaining how changing the variables affected the predictions. 

  • Lead a class discussion on how computer simulations are used in fields like meteorology, economics, and gaming to predict outcomes by adjusting variables.

Equity and Access: 

Provide pre-made templates and step-by-step guides for students who need extra support with coding. Pair students with varying levels of coding experience to encourage collaboration and peer learning.

Real-World Application: 

Relate this lesson to real-world applications where simulations are used, such as predicting election outcomes, forecasting weather, or modeling stock market trends. Emphasize how changing one variable can shift the entire outcome.

CS Practice(s):

• Testing and Refining Computational Models: Students modify variables in their simulation to see how it impacts the probability model and adjust based on results.

• Creating Computational Artifacts: Students use a coding platform to build and refine a simulation that represents a real-world probability model.

Standard(s):

• CA CCSS Math 7.SP.7

• CA CS 6-8.DA.9