The Delayed 2021 Census 

Census is a decennial stand for the counting of the population of a nation. In India, it started in 1881 and takes place every 10th year. The 2021 or 16th Indian census was mechanised to have two phases, a house listing phase and a population counting phase. The house listing was to begin in April 2020 but due to COVID-19 it got delayed to 2022 and since then, has been regularly pushed forward. In the budget for FY22, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman allocated ₹37.68 billion for the census, but there are no clear reasons for having delayed it. Initially, it was because of the pandemic but other nations like the United States, China and the United Kingdom also exercised their census activity after severe COVID outbreaks. The Registrar General of India informed the states that authorities have decided to further extend the date of freezing the administrative boundaries for the ninth time from June 30, 2024, to October 2024. The enumeration process is believed to start soon after that, and it will take 11 months to complete the census.

There exist other nationwide studies, like the Sample Registration System Statistical Report of 2020 and the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21). While they are robust and necessary, they are no substitute for a comprehensive national census. Apart from census delay, there are pending reports on birth, death, and cause of death in 2021,2022 and 2023. These reports are of utmost importance for the planning of vital statistics. Government agencies still rely on the 2011 data, which is irrelevant and will create uncertainty in policy development. 

This delay is impacting government schemes and programmes and has led to unreliable estimates from other surveys on consumption, health, and employment, sectors which depend on census data to determine policy and welfare schemes. Authorities have to resort to using this data to determine aid eligibility and more than 100 million people are likely to be excluded from the government’s food subsidy programme—the public distribution system (PDS)—as the population figures used to calculate the number of beneficiaries are from 2011. The general elections taking place before the census raise the concern for timely implementation of the reservations for women, who have 33% of seats reserved in the parliament and state assemblies. 

The demographic shift in India and rising life expectancy have resulted in challenges and opportunities. The “high powered” committee constituted to consider the challenges arising from a “fast-growing population and demographic changes”, will have to perform a vital role in addressing questions related to jobs and social security and the challenges citizens face due to rapid urbanisation and mechanisation of work. The new census is likely to capture the extent of the observed movement in migration trends towards smaller two-tier towns apart from the large metropolitan centre, and this could help answer questions of what kind of healthcare and social services are most needed and where. However, this feat can be difficult considering that the allocation for census survey and statistics has been slashed to ₹1,277.80 crore from ₹1,546.65 crore in 2023-24, a further indication that the census exercise is not being given economic importance.

In September 2019, Union Minister Amit Shah stated that the 2021 census would be fully digital through a mobile phone application and would be carried out in 16 languages. The new method has a lot of possibilities of errors in the online data collection process, such as furnishing of false information due to the fear of losing the benefits of various schemes, the possibility of misuse of data collected as well as the lack of assurance of data security and an adequate backup mechanism. Despite all the challenges, there is a need to have relevant, updated Census data to evaluate several new schemes, implement new policies, aid government decision-making, allocation of funds, for social and healthcare benefits, and for other extensive uses of the data. 

References -

Paliath, S., Paliath, S., & Indiaspend. (2022, June 3). Data Gaps: Why India cannot afford to further delay its census. Indiaspend. https://www.indiaspend.com/cover-story/data-gaps-why-india-cannot-afford-to-further-delay-its-census-820512

Population priorities: On Interim Budget statement and the Census. (2024, February 3). The Hindu. https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/editorial/population-priorities-on-interim-budget-statement-and-the-census/article67805120.ece

PWOnlyIAS. (2024, February 5). Demography of India: Opportunities, challenges, and way forward - PWOnlyIAS. PWOnlyIAS. https://pwonlyias.com/editorial-analysis/demography-of-india-and-changes/

Staff @CD. (2022, September 28). Census in India - Civilsdaily. CivilsDaily. https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/census/

IndiaSpend, & Paliath, S. (2022, July 14). Delayed census: How India’s welfare schemes are suffering | IDR. India Development Review. https://idronline.org/article/advocacy-government/delayed-census-how-indias-welfare-schemes-are-suffering/