Here we are in a new quarter so it's time to refresh the BTC Price Cycle Analysis thread.
Here's where we came from. Below are the FB posts in Cryptnation.
Here's how the cycle forecast held up (for those who don't have access).
January Forecast
February Update
March Update
Keep in mind the blue wavy line is not forecasting a potential price. It is forecasting the cycle linked to time, syncing the upward and downward price trends to the time scale on the bottom.
You can see in the photo above how around the end of February institutional buying really boosted price and broke the downtrend of the blended short-term and long-term price cycle.
I typically update my models weekly but execute a plan based on the quarterly forecast. The end of February through March has shown a shifting of phases. This means historical cyclical trends are moving away from what the patterns used to be. This is no surprise with the unprecedented buying.
This is the picture of the new quarterly price cycle of BTC.
Honestly, This was a challenging position to come to terms with. I've done lots of tweaking and a lot of studying and I think the long-term cycles are going to be unhelpful for the time being. The long-term cycles are becoming less relevant with new and increasingly bullish price behavior. The short-term cycles are more relevant at the moment.
This is JUST the short term price cycle of BTC.
I'll be looking to this one more than long-term cycles that are forecasting a cycle low in mid-May. The 40-day short-term price cycle of BTC is the most repetitive cycle through the ENTIRE history of BTC. It also matches up well in this case with BTC seasonality that I've posted before showing the second week of April is the beginning of the bullish summer period.
BTC Seasonality Cryptnation FB Post
All things considered. I'll still be watching for higher timeframe signals on the 12HR and Daily chart to see if the long-term downtrend cycle is still in play but I'm kinda thinking we won't get a sustained CYCLICAL downtrend into May.
The short-term 40-day cycle should be used in tandem with bearish or bullish signals on the 8HR or 12HR timeframe (MAAAAAYBE the 4HR, but I'd stick with the 8HR for timing the cycle trend change).
Here's a link to a video of me talking about the March update and cycle analysis if audio helps.
If you have any questions feel free to ask.
Hope that all makes sense.