Provided economic background research, market analysis, and financial feasibility study for a range of development options on a 1000+ acre site (730 ac developable) adjacent to a highway interchange north of Houston, near the airport.
Evaluated previous plans conducted by other consultants (which were focused on higher density office, retail, and residential) and conducted a "highest and best use" study. Revised expectations regarding development potential and land price, given the reality of the market and the site in question.
The scope included outlining alternative land use plans that would accommodate between 10-15 million square feet of development. Ultimately, a recommendation was made to focus on a business/ industrial park with some big box retail, which reflected the highest and best use of the site (at the time).
Although the study was conducted immediately prior to the financial crisis/real estate bust in 2007, the recommendations remained relevant and represent what was ultimately developed over the past 15 years (using a modified masterplan by others). The site now contains an Amazon Distribution Center and Coca-Cola Facility, among others. More information on the project can be found here.
Completed while a Senior Consultant in Real Estate Strategy at HOK.
Pinto Realty controlled a high-profile, 727-acre infill site in north-central Houston, situated near major highways, employment centers, and Bush Intercontinental Airport. The area experienced rapid regional growth but suffered from locally weak incomes and poor school performance, impacting neighborhood perceptions and developer interest. Pinto engaged Hellmuth, Obata + Kassabaum (HOK) to independently test the economic and design feasibility of a master plan created by others and previously reviewed in a market analysis by another consultant.
Independently validate and extend prior consultant's market findings, focusing on market-supported uses and absorption potential.
Benchmark the North Tract’s prospects and design features against successful mixed-use and town center projects locally and nationally.
Identify market positioning, phasing, and design changes needed to ensure financial and operational success.
Verified and supplemented demographic, income, employment, and housing data, emphasizing data specific to the North Tract’s immediate market.
Evaluated residential, office, and retail market conditions—differentiating for-sale, rental, and Class A versus lesser quality products.
Interviewed local stakeholders and reviewed 21 major mixed-use communities and 36 town center projects for direct comparison.
Several alternative land use options were developed for consideration.
Developed detailed comparative tables on density, land use, and locational characteristics to benchmark North Tract against regional and national precedents.
Assessed market readiness for upscale versus middle-income product types, and identified planning principles (parking configuration, residential mix, water features, amenities) with proven market appeal.
While strong regional growth supported new residential, office, and retail development, local demographic constraints (lower incomes, educational attainment, and home values) limited prospects for upscale retail and housing.
Greenspoint’s office market demonstrated above-average performance, but anticipated supply and risks—particularly with major Exxon lease expirations—could disrupt absorption and rent stability.
The area was over-retailed, requiring new retail to capture existing market share rather than relying on unmet demand, favoring big-box and middle-market retailers over luxury stores.
The prior master plan was considered overly ambitious in terms of office and upscale residential intensity; If it were to continue, we recommended reducing office density, shifting parking behind buildings, lowering residential-over-retail ratios, dispersing water and amenities, and targeting affordable/middle-class products with potential for airport synergy.
Mixed-use projects nationwide confirmed the need for phased, market-aligned approaches, with lower construction complexity, flexible housing options, and risk-sharing public-private strategies.
The analysis led to a recalibrated concept for North Tract, prioritizing achievable land uses, economic realities, and lessons learned from comparable developments to create a pragmatic, market-driven master plan. While the project ended up being something other than the kind of placemaking neighborhood originally envisioned, it did respond to market realities and did achieve positive financial results.