Kalshi Trading: How Event Contracts Work, Who Trades Them, and Where Regulation Stands

Kalshi is a federally regulated event contract exchange where people trade yes/no contracts on real-world outcomes. Whether it’s elections, sports games, macroeconomic data releases, weather patterns, or awards shows, Kalshi lets users buy and sell positions based on what they think will happen next.

But here’s a distinction that often gets lost in the conversation: “Kalshi Trading” refers to a specific affiliated market-making firm that operates on the Kalshi exchange—not the exchange platform itself. Understanding this difference matters, especially when we talk about conflicts of interest, liquidity, and how prices actually form.

Timeline context: Kalshi launched political markets around the 2024 U.S. presidential election and expanded into sports markets in early 2025

Where the volume is: Sports contracts currently dominate trading activity, but politics, economics, and cultural events are growing segments

What this article covers: How Kalshi contracts work, how pricing and market making function (including Kalshi Trading), regulatory debates in the U.S., and basic strategies and risks for individual traders

Why it matters: Prediction markets have emerged as powerful forecasting tools, with Kalshi’s institutional-grade markets outperforming traditional polls during the 2024 election cycle

The regulatory angle: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates prediction markets like Kalshi, but state gambling laws create an evolving patchwork of rules

What Is Kalshi and How Does Trading Work?

Kalshi operates as a centralized event-contract exchange regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. This federal oversight distinguishes it from offshore prediction markets like Polymarket (which geoblocks U.S. users and requires crypto) and traditional sportsbooks that set their own lines and profit from vig.

Every contract on Kalshi is a binary question about a measurable event. Think: “Will the S&P 500 close above 5,500 on December 31, 2026?” or “Will Team X win on Sunday?” There’s no ambiguity—the outcome is either yes or no, determined by predefined resolution criteria and data sources.

Users buy “Yes” or “No” contracts priced between $0.01 and $0.99. Each contract settles at exactly $1 if correct and $0 if incorrect. The price you pay essentially reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome.

Here’s a concrete example: Say you buy 100 “Yes” contracts at $0.35 on a question about whether a specific candidate will win an upcoming election. Your total cost is $35. If that candidate wins, each contract pays out $1, returning $100 total—a $65 gross profit before fees. If they lose, you get $0 and your $35 is gone.

Like on a stock exchange, traders can enter limit and market orders, see an order book, and trade in and out of positions before settlement. The platform displays prices as percentages that map directly to implied probabilities, which many traders find easier to interpret than American odds used at traditional sportsbooks.

The Simple Mechanics: Contracts, Prices, and Payouts

The fundamental rule is straightforward: contracts are quoted from 1–99¢ and always settle at $1 or $0. This means price ≈ market-implied probability of the outcome.

Let’s walk through a real-world example. Suppose there’s a contract asking “Will the Fed hike rates at the September 2026 FOMC meeting?” and it’s currently trading at 40¢.

If you buy “Yes” at 40¢:

Your cost: $0.40 per contract

Your max gain: $0.60 per contract (if the Fed hikes)

Your max loss: $0.40 per contract (if no hike)

If you buy “No” at 60¢:

Your cost: $0.60 per contract

Your max gain: $0.40 per contract (if no hike)

Your max loss: $0.60 per contract (if the Fed hikes)

You can calculate expected value by multiplying the implied probability by the $1 payout, then subtracting cost and Kalshi’s fees. If you believe there’s a 55% chance of a rate hike but the market prices it at 40%, you might see value in buying “Yes.”

Trading In and Out Before Settlement

Contracts can be sold anytime before the market closes, similar to selling a stock before earnings. This allows traders to realize gains or cut losses early without waiting for the final outcome.

Political example: You buy a 25¢ “Yes” contract on a 2026 gubernatorial election. Over the following weeks, polling shifts dramatically in your candidate’s favor, and the contract price rises to 60¢. You can sell at 60¢, locking in a 35¢ profit per contract—even though the election hasn’t happened yet.

Sports example: You buy “Yes” on an NFL team to win at 45¢. Early in the game, they score two quick touchdowns, and the live price jumps to 75¢. You can exit with a 30¢ profit without sweating out the fourth quarter.

The portfolio view lets traders monitor open positions, cost basis, current mark-to-market value, and realized/unrealized P&L. Intraday price moves can be driven by breaking news, data releases, or live game actions—a starting quarterback injury or sudden weather change can shift odds within seconds.

Is Kalshi Peer-to-Peer or a Sportsbook? The Role of Kalshi Trading

Kalshi positions itself as a peer-to-peer exchange, not a house-run sportsbook. The platform matches orders between participants via an order book rather than explicitly “booking” bets and setting lines against users.

But here’s where it gets nuanced: Kalshi Trading is an affiliated market-making firm that posts two-sided quotes (bids and asks) to provide liquidity and narrower spreads. In practice, many retail traders trade against quotes set or anchored by professional liquidity providers using quantitative models and external odds.

This structure differs from traditional sportsbooks in several ways:

Traditional Sportsbook

Kalshi Exchange

Sets its own lines

Prices emerge from order book

Profits from vig on every bet

Charges transaction fees only

House takes the other side

Users trade against each other (or market makers)

Fixed odds at time of bet

Prices move continuously

Limited exit options

Can sell positions anytime

Governance and information-barrier policies become critical here because Kalshi Trading and the regulated exchange entity share some board members and strategic interests.

How Market Makers Like Kalshi Trading Operate

A market maker continuously provides both “buy” and “sell” quotes at slightly different prices, earning the spread across many trades. If a contract has a 48¢ bid and 52¢ ask, the market maker profits 4¢ on every round-trip when other users take both sides.

Kalshi Trading reportedly uses bookmaker odds, in-house models, and real-time feeds to algorithmically update its prices as information changes. When news breaks—an injury report, a polling surge, an economic release—their systems adjust prices faster than most human traders can react.

External firms also participate. Susquehanna International Group joined as the first major institutional market maker in April 2024, focusing on events where volume justifies their involvement (NFL games, major elections). These sophisticated players use strict informational barriers and enormous implications of capital to maintain tight spreads.

Retail order flow may be relatively small per trade, but in aggregate forms the majority of individual accounts. The share of notional volume from liquidity providers isn’t fully disclosed, making it difficult to determine exactly how much Kalshi’s trading volume comes from professionals versus casual users.

Conflicts of Interest and Perceived “House Edge”

Even if Kalshi is formally peer-to-peer, an affiliated market maker introduces questions about whether the platform has an economic interest when Kalshi Trading profits.

The CFTC has required physical, operational, and informational separation to prevent the trading arm from accessing non public exchange information. These policies mandate completely separate operations between the exchange (KalshiEX) and the trading firm—a separate entity structured as a different company.

Concerns intensified after the 2022 FTX collapse, which demonstrated the risks of vertically integrated exchanges and proprietary trading arms sharing information and balance sheets. Critics argue that retail traders may underestimate how sophisticated and fast market makers are, especially in sports markets where information moves at the speed of a touchdown.

The key debate isn’t whether Kalshi is doing anything illegal—it’s whether the current disclosure and separation requirements are sufficient to ensure fairness. These issues remain ongoing discussions about transparency rather than settled legal conclusions.

Regulatory Landscape: CFTC, States, and Court Rulings

Kalshi operates under federal oversight by the CFTC, which regulates prediction markets and treats many contracts as event-based derivatives rather than state-licensed gambling products. This federal designation allows Kalshi to operate across roughly half of U.S. states.

But tension exists between federal regulation and state gambling laws. More than 20 U.S. states have challenged or sought to block certain prediction markets as unlicensed wagering or gambling operations.

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals upheld Nevada’s Gaming Control Board’s authority to block Kalshi’s sports contracts as unlicensed betting within Nevada. This ruling illustrated that even with CFTC approval, states retain power to effectively regulate gambling within their borders.

Federal support from the CFTC has, at times, been at odds with states seeking to restrict or ban event contract trading, especially in sports and certain political categories. The result is an evolving patchwork where traders need to verify which markets are available in their jurisdiction.

The CFTC’s Role and Post-FTX Scrutiny

The CFTC makes rules for designated contract markets and event-based derivatives, including requirements around clearing, surveillance, and customer protections. When Kalshi received its designation in 2020, it marked a pivotal regulatory milestone that transformed prediction markets from a regulatory gray area into a supervised environment.

After FTX’s collapse in late 2022, the recently appointed chairman and commission intensified their review of exchanges with affiliated trading arms. This scrutiny examined whether firms like Kalshi Trading maintain adequate information barriers and risk controls.

Current CFTC rules focus primarily on the regulated exchange entity (KalshiEX) and provide limited direct authority over separate but affiliated trading firms. This gap has fueled policy debates over whether additional guardrails are needed for prediction market companies, especially when retail traders are the primary participants.

Customer funds are held in segregated accounts under futures-style protections, similar to commodity futures trading commission requirements for traditional derivatives. But the question of what happens during operational freezes or sharp market moves remains a concern for some users.

Federal vs. State Power: Bans, Exemptions, and Workarounds

Some states interpret event-contract trading as gambling, leading to bans or cease-and-desist orders on sports and high-profile political events.

Nevada stands as the primary example: Its Gaming Control Board moved to block Kalshi’s sports offerings as unlicensed wagering last year. The subsequent 9th Circuit decision supported that authority, creating precedent that may influence other states.

Despite state actions, Kalshi has continued to operate in most U.S. jurisdictions based on its federal derivatives-exchange status. Individual market access varies—sports contracts might be available in one state but blocked in another.

High-profile figures have weighed in on both sides. The Trump administration and figures like Donald Trump Jr. have expressed views on prediction markets that often track broader attitudes toward sports betting and financial innovation. Even those who support deregulation acknowledge that the intersection of state gambling laws and federal oversight creates uncertainty.

The Supreme Court’s 2018 decision on sports betting (Murphy v. NCAA) opened the floodgates for states to legalize wagers, but it also reinforced states’ authority to regulate gambling within their borders—creating the very tension Kalshi now navigates.

Types of Markets on Kalshi: Sports, Politics, Macro, and More

Kalshi offers contracts across several categories, though the distribution of volume trade isn’t evenly spread:

Sports Markets: Where Most Trading Happens

Sports events like NFL Sundays, NBA playoffs, and major tournaments often see large spikes in volume and rapid price movements. Market makers frequently rely on live data feeds, injury reports, and advanced models to update odds faster than casual users can react.

Kalshi’s sports contracts differ from traditional parlays or props at traditional sportsbooks:

Standardized yes/no questions rather than complex multi-leg bets

Transparent Kalshi’s fees listed in a public fee schedule

Ability to sell your position before the game ends

Order book visibility showing other users’ bids and asks

Concrete example: An NFL Sunday game contract asks “Will the Chiefs beat the Ravens?” Trading opens at 55¢ for “Yes.” News breaks that the Chiefs’ starting quarterback has a hand injury—price drops to 42¢ within minutes as traders sell their position. Weather reports predict heavy rain, favoring the run-heavy team—another price shift. Professional market making firms adjust continuously; casual bettors checking scores every few minutes are trading against systems that update in milliseconds.

Sports markets currently dominate turnover but serve as a gateway for users to explore macro and political contracts. Someone comfortable betting on Sunday football might gradually venture into “Will inflation exceed 3%?” territory.

Politics, Economics, and “Real-World” Outcome Markets

Political contracts cover election outcomes, legislative milestones, or policy decisions with fixed decision dates. The 2024 U.S. election saw enormous implications for Kalshi’s credibility—its markets tracked outcomes more precisely than most polls, validating prediction markets as forecasting tools.

Macroeconomic markets include:

Non-farm payrolls (NFP) release outcomes

Unemployment rate thresholds

CPI inflation readings (e.g., “Will U.S. core CPI YoY be above 3.0% in December 2026?”)

Fed interest rate decisions

These appeal to traders already following these releases for investment reasons. A venture capital firm monitoring economic indicators might use Kalshi contracts to hedge against unfavorable macro outcomes.

Weather and climate-related markets—hurricane landfall counts, temperature thresholds—intersect with insurance and energy concerns. A farmer could theoretically hedge crop risk by trading weather contracts, turning Kalshi into a risk management tool rather than pure speculation.

Traders can build directional views by combining several related contracts. If you believe the economy is weakening, you might buy “Yes” on unemployment rising, “No” on the Fed cutting rates (if you think they’ll be behind the curve), and “Yes” on a politically incumbent party losing—creating a thematic portfolio around your macro thesis.

How to Approach Kalshi Trading as an Individual

Kalshi trading is speculative and can be high-risk, especially in sports and political markets with sharp information moves. Treating it like active trading in financial markets—rather than casual gambling—will serve most users better.

Basic approaches include:

Information-based trading: Leveraging faster or better data than the market currently reflects

Statistical trading: Exploiting historical patterns (e.g., certain teams consistently underpriced in specific conditions)

Hedging: Offsetting business or portfolio risks (e.g., a solar company trading weather contracts)

Before scaling up, understand these realities:

Kalshi’s fees eat into thin edges

Spreads on low-liquidity contracts can be wide

Most users will not consistently beat professional market makers

You’re competing against algorithms with access to real-time data feeds

Numeric risk example: You put $500 into a political contract at 50¢, buying 1,000 “Yes” shares. If your candidate loses, you lose the entire $500. If they win, you profit roughly $500 minus fees. There’s no partial outcome—it’s binary.

Simple Strategies and Common Pitfalls

A basic “news trader” strategy focuses on specific niches where you have domain knowledge. If you closely follow a particular sports league, local election, or economic indicator, you might spot mispricings before the broader market.

Common pitfalls to avoid:

Chasing spikes: Buying into rapid price moves during live games or breaking news without a plan leads to overtrading and poor execution

Ignoring fees: The impact of spreads and fees on expected value compounds, especially for frequent traders and contracts priced near 50¢ where fees represent the highest percentage of potential profit

Overconfidence: When prices look “obviously wrong,” remember that arbitrageurs and algorithms have likely already examined that opportunity

Illiquidity traps: Entering positions in thin markets where you can’t exit at reasonable prices

The ability to determine when you have an actual edge versus when you’re gambling on hope separates successful traders from those who blow up accounts.

Risk Management, Limits, and Responsible Use

Treat all money on Kalshi as fully at risk. Even high-probability contracts can resolve against you—that’s the nature of future events.

Practical risk management steps:

Set per-event and per-day loss limits, similar to options or leveraged ETF trading

Track a trading journal recording your rationale, entry/exit prices, and post-event reflections

Diversify across event types (sports, macro, politics) to avoid concentration in a single high-volatility outcome

Stay updated on regulatory changes affecting which contracts are available in your jurisdiction

Never bet money you can’t afford to lose—this applies whether you call it a bet, trade, or position

The back end infrastructure of Kalshi includes portfolio margining that optimizes collateral by netting offsetting positions. If one “Yes” position hedges another’s “No,” total exposure is reduced. But if sharp market moves trigger margin calls and funds are insufficient, Kalshi may automatically liquidate positions at prevailing prices—potentially locking in losses during high volatility.

The Future of Kalshi Trading and Event Markets

The history of prediction markets suggests they’re here to stay. Kalshi’s institutional-grade infrastructure, combined with its 2024 election validation, positions it as a serious player in what Michael Selig and other industry observers describe as an emerging asset class.

Potential growth areas include:

More granular macroeconomic contracts (monthly data splits, regional indicators)

Additional sports leagues and international events

Climate and ESG-related markets with enormous implications for corporate risk management

Global political markets as the U.S. model proves viability over offshore alternatives

Potential crypto integrations via third-party services already enabling USDC on-ramps

Regulatory clarity—both at the CFTC level and across U.S. states—will heavily influence how far event markets can expand. A friendly decision from regulators could open prediction markets to broader participation; adverse rulings could restrict access.

Larger institutional participation seems likely as contracts mature and resemble traditional derivatives used for hedging. Firms like Susquehanna’s entry in 2024 signals that major players see value in providing liquidity and support for these markets.

Improvements in AI, data infrastructure, and model-driven trading will further increase market efficiency. For casual traders, this means competing against increasingly sophisticated systems—making domain expertise and discipline even more critical.

The bottom line: Kalshi trading sits at the intersection of betting, trading, and information discovery. It offers new tools for speculation, hedging, and forecasting that weren’t accessible to retail participants until recently. But success demands the same attention to risk, position sizing, and discipline you’d bring to any serious financial market.

Before placing your first contract, understand the fee structure, verify which markets are available in your state, and start small. The hedge against ignorance is education—and in prediction markets, the profit goes to those who understand both the opportunity and the risk.

Kalshi Trading FAQ

If you’ve been curious about event trading or stumbled across Kalshi during major news cycles like the 2024 U.S. election, you’re not alone. This FAQ covers everything from account setup to settlement mechanics, helping you understand how this platform works and what to expect as a participant.

Quick Answers: What Is Kalshi Trading and How Does It Work?

Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange where users trade yes/no contracts on real-world events. Unlike traditional sports betting platforms, Kalshi operates as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), meaning it’s federally supervised and follows strict compliance rules. People use it to trade on outcomes ranging from elections and economic data releases to weather events and sports results.

The platform functions more like a stock market than a sportsbook. Traders buy and sell contracts against each other through a central limit order book, not against the house. This means prices reflect collective market sentiment rather than odds set by a bookmaker.

Key basics to understand:

Contracts trade between ¢1 and ¢99, representing market-implied probabilities

Winning contracts settle to $1.00; losing contracts settle to $0.00

You can enter and exit positions before settlement, locking in profits or cutting losses

All trading happens between market participants, with market makers providing liquidity

Is Kalshi legal? Yes. Kalshi secured explicit CFTC approval as the first regulated platform for political and broad event markets. It operates in all 50 U.S. states, though certain market types may face restrictions in specific jurisdictions.

Is this sports betting or trading? Technically, it’s trading event contracts—a form of financial derivative. While the action might feel similar to placing a bet, the regulatory framework, pricing mechanics, and ability to trade out of positions align it closer to options or futures trading.

Many traders discover Kalshi through election coverage, then expand into other markets like CPI releases, Fed rate decisions, unemployment data, and entertainment awards.

Account Setup, Eligibility, and Identification

Getting started on Kalshi requires identity verification before you can deposit money or place trades. Here’s what you need to know about eligibility and the signup process.

Age requirements:

Users must generally be at least 18 years old

Some states or specific market types may require users to be 21+

You’re responsible for following your local laws regarding participation

Identity verification (KYC) requirements:

Full legal name as it appears on government ID

Date of birth

Current residential address

Last four digits of SSN for U.S. residents

Acceptable IDs include passport, driver’s license, or state-issued ID

Additional documentation scenarios:

Higher trading limits may trigger enhanced due diligence requests

Suspicious activity reviews can require proof of address or income verification

Kalshi may request additional documents at any time to maintain compliance

Location and residency restrictions:

Certain U.S. states may be blocked from specific markets due to regulation

Foreign jurisdictions are generally excluded

Using VPNs to circumvent geo-restrictions violates platform rules

Successful ID verification must be completed before depositing, trading, or withdrawing funds. The process typically takes minutes but can extend to a few business days if manual review is required.

Verification, Security, and Prohibited Activities

Kalshi uses verification and monitoring systems to protect users and comply with CFTC and anti-money-laundering regulations. Understanding these rules helps you avoid account issues.

Prohibited activities include:

Creating multiple accounts

Trading on behalf of others without proper authorization

Using unauthorized bots or automation that violates platform terms

Attempting to manipulate prices or settlement data sources

Providing false information during verification

All traders must pass verification checks. Failing or refusing verification can result in account limits, suspension, or permanent closure. Serious violations may be reported to the CFTC or other authorities.

Security features available:

Feature

Description

Strong passwords

Platform recommends complex, unique passwords

Two-factor authentication (2FA)

Additional login security layer

Device monitoring

Alerts for unrecognized login attempts

Secure data handling

Personal information protected per privacy standards

You’re responsible for keeping login credentials private. If you suspect your account has been compromised, contact support immediately with details about the suspicious activity.

Deposits, Withdrawals, and Fees

Understanding how money moves in and out of your Kalshi account—and what it costs—helps you plan your trading activity effectively.

Supported funding methods:

ACH bank transfer (most common)

Wire transfer

Debit card

Some third-party crypto on-ramps available

Deposit details:

Processing times vary by method (ACH typically 1-3 business days)

Minimums and maximums apply per transaction type

Funds must clear before becoming available for trading

Withdrawal process:

Withdrawals go through a review process for compliance

ACH withdrawals typically process in 1-5 business days

Bank account name must match your Kalshi account name exactly

Available cash balance can be withdrawn once trades settle

Fee structure:

Trading fees are based on notional value of contracts

Fees are capped per trade (typically low single-dollar range on a $100 trade)

Fees tend to be slightly higher price around 50/50 markets

Long shots and heavy favorites generally carry lower percentage fees

Unlike traditional bookmakers who build vig into odds, Kalshi operates as a neutral exchange collecting fees on transactions. There are no hidden rollover requirements—your available balance is yours to withdraw once compliance checks clear.

Contracts, Pricing, and Trading Mechanics

Kalshi users trade event contracts that function similarly to binary options, with transparent settlement outcomes. Every contract resolves to either $1.00 (yes) or $0.00 (no).

How pricing works:

Each contract trades between $0.01 and $0.99

The price represents market-implied probability (e.g., ¢37 means roughly 37% chance)

Prices move as traders buy and sell based on their views

Order book mechanics:

Term

Meaning

Bid

The price buyers are willing to pay

Ask

The price sellers are willing to accept

Spread

The difference between best bid and best ask

Last

Most recent trade price

Orders match between traders based on price and time priority. There’s no house setting odds—the exchange simply facilitates matching between people with different opinions.

Market makers and liquidity:

Institutional market makers like Susquehanna International Group (which joined in April 2024) provide liquidity by posting offers on both sides of the order book. They profit from the bid-ask spread while helping ensure that traders can enter and exit positions without excessive slippage.

Trading options:

Buy “Yes” if you expect the event to occur

Buy “No” if you expect it won’t occur

Close positions before settlement by selling your contracts

Hold until the event resolves for final payout

Why Yes and No prices don’t always sum to exactly 100%:

The spread, fees, and varying liquidity levels create minor discrepancies. A market might show Yes at ¢62 and No at ¢40, for example, leaving a 2-cent gap that represents the cost of immediate execution.

Understanding Payouts and Example Calculations

Concrete examples help illustrate how profit and loss work on Kalshi.

Example 1: Winning trade

You buy 100 “Yes” contracts at ¢25 each

Total cost: $25.00

Event occurs, contracts settle to $1.00 each

Total payout: $100.00

Net profit: $75.00 (before fees)

Example 2: Losing trade

You buy 50 “No” contracts at ¢70 each

Total cost: $35.00

Event occurs (meaning “No” loses)

Contracts settle to $0.00

Loss: $35.00

Example 3: Trading out early

You buy 100 “Yes” contracts at ¢40 each ($40 total)

Market moves in your favor; you sell at ¢60 each

Proceeds: $60.00

Realized profit: $20.00 (before fees)

You’ve locked in gains without waiting for final settlement

Your portfolio value changes with market prices in real time, just like positions on a stock or options trading platform. This means you can monitor unrealized P&L throughout the trading day and make decisions about when to exit.

Market Types, Rules, and Settlement

Every Kalshi market has specific rules and an official data source that governs how settlement is determined. Understanding these details helps you avoid surprises.

Common market categories:

Politics: Presidential race outcomes, congressional results, policy decisions

Economics: CPI releases, unemployment data, Fed rate decisions, recession probabilities

Sports: Game outcomes, player performance milestones

Weather: Temperature thresholds, storm landfall predictions

Entertainment: Award show winners, box office milestones

Settlement timing:

Most markets settle within a few hours of official results becoming available. However, some markets may take longer if:

Source data is delayed

Official statistics are under review

The outcome requires manual verification

What to check before trading:

Each market page displays critical information:

Close time (when trading ends)

Determination time (when outcome is checked)

Rules section (exact settlement criteria)

Important Information (data sources, edge cases)

Handling unusual outcomes:

When events are delayed, revised, or partially canceled, Kalshi follows the written market rules. This may involve waiting for final confirmed data from source agencies, leagues, or government bodies. Complex outcomes can trigger manual review by Kalshi’s markets and compliance teams before settlement posts to accounts.

Market Close, Determination Time, and Delays

Understanding the difference between trading close and determination time prevents confusion about why a market hasn’t settled yet.

Key definitions:

Trading close: When no more orders can be placed

Determination time: When the outcome is officially checked and settled

Markets may close well before or after the actual event start/end time, depending on operational or regulatory needs. For example, an election market might stop trading before polls close but not settle until results are certified.

Common reasons for delays:

Data vendor lag in reporting official statistics

Revisions to preliminary government data

Ambiguity in event completion criteria

Compliance review of unusual trading patterns

What to do if a market hasn’t settled:

Check the Rules section first—it may specify a later determination date

Wait at least 12 hours after the event ends before contacting support

When reaching out, provide: market name, market ID, screenshot of your position, and timeline of the event

Combo Markets, Advanced Features, and Strategy Basics

Combo markets allow traders to take linked positions across multiple events, with payouts based on all legs’ outcomes.

How combo markets work:

You submit a desired combination of positions

Market participants and market makers respond with quotes via Request For Quote (RFQ)

Once you accept a quote, the combo appears in its own order book

Status shows “processing” during matching

Settlement mechanics:

Combo markets may settle after individual legs because Kalshi must verify all conditions before computing final payout. Each leg follows its own underlying market rules.

Important: Final payout may be a non-binary amount, not just $0 or $1. If legs resolve to different values, the payout equals their product.

Combo example:

Leg

Outcome

Settlement Value

Leg A

Yes

$1.00

Leg B

Yes

$1.00

Leg C

Partial/Uncertain

$0.70

Per-contract payout

$0.70

Strategy basics for all traders:

Manage risk with smaller position sizes until you understand the mechanics

Diversify across uncorrelated events to reduce portfolio volatility

Monitor spreads and liquidity before entering larger orders

Consider the end date and determination time before committing capital

Suggested Markets and Community Input

Kalshi accepts community suggestions for new markets through an online form or support channel.

Elements of a strong suggestion:

Clearly defined event with specific parameters

Objective, measurable settlement criteria

Reliable public data source for verification

Specific timeframe (start date, end date, determination date)

Not all ideas can be listed due to regulatory or operational limits. However, popular and well-specified concepts have higher approval chances. Before submitting, review existing markets to avoid duplicates and understand how rules are typically structured.

Compliance, Record-Keeping, and Oversight

Kalshi’s compliance framework connects directly to its status as a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market.

Record-keeping practices:

Detailed records of all orders, trades, and account activity

Audit trails from order entry through allocation and settlement

Data retention designed to detect manipulation and abusive practices

Enforcement capabilities:

Kalshi’s compliance department can discipline users through:

Formal warnings

Trading restrictions

Account closure

Reporting to CFTC for serious violations

Regulatory reporting:

Kalshi provides regulators with information on:

Financial resources and liquidity

Risk management procedures

Valuation methodologies

Market surveillance activities

These monitoring systems exist both to meet regulatory standards and to keep markets fair and transparent for all participants. The table below summarizes key oversight elements:

Area

Purpose

Trade surveillance

Detect manipulation attempts

Position monitoring

Identify concentration risks

Settlement verification

Ensure accurate outcomes

User activity review

Prevent prohibited behavior

Using Kalshi Alongside Other Tools and Services

Successful traders often pair Kalshi with external data sources and platforms to inform their decisions.

Common research tools:

Search engines: Google Search for breaking news and background research

News aggregators: Google News for tracking event developments

Economic calendars: Scheduling of CPI releases, FOMC meetings, employment reports

Polling aggregates: Election and political sentiment tracking

Best practices for research:

Cross-check event times against official sources

Verify data source reliability before forming strong views

Review historical patterns for recurring events (Fed meetings, economic releases)

Avoid relying solely on social media rumors

Advanced integrations:

More experienced traders may use dashboards, spreadsheets, or cloud tools to track:

Probability movements over time

Correlations between related markets

Personal performance and win rates

Position sizing calculations

Google Sheets, Google Cloud data pipelines, and similar tools can help organize this information systematically.

Important reminder: While external research tools can improve decision-making, all trading decisions and risks remain your responsibility. The platform provides market access, but success depends on your analysis, discipline, and risk management.

Last updated: This FAQ reflects current Kalshi mechanics and policies. Platform rules and features may change, so always verify details on the official Kalshi website before trading.

Before placing your first trade, review the specific market rules for any event you’re considering. Start with smaller positions to get comfortable with the mechanics, and use the resources available—from Google Search to economic calendars—to make informed decisions.