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The overarching theme of the project is to identify drivers of the model spread in the CMIP6 sea ice simulations, in order to ultimately reduce Arctic sea ice projection uncertainty. This includes an assessment of drivers of Arctic sea ice loss and improving the understanding of the contribution of internal variability to sea ice loss.
Publications from this project are listed below:
Publications from this project are listed below:
Wyburn-Powell, C., A. Jahn, M. England (2022), Modeled Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Cover is Within Observational Uncertainty, J. of Climate. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0958.1
Smith, A., Jahn, A., Burgard, C., and Notz, D. (2022), Improving model-satellite comparisons of sea ice melt onset with a satellite simulator, The Cryosphere, 16, 3235-3248, doi:10.5194/tc-16-3235-2022
DeRepentigny, P., A. Jahn, J.E. Kay, M. Holland, J. Fassulo, J.-F. Lamarque, C. Hannay, M. Mills, D. Bailey, S. Tilmes, A. Barrett (2022): Enhanced simulated early 21st century Arctic sea ice loss due to CMIP6 biomass burning emissions, Science Advances, Vol. 8, Issue 30, doi:10.1126/sciadv.abo2405.
Kay, Jennifer E. and DeRepentigny, Patricia and Holland, Marika M. and Bailey, David A. and DuVivier, Alice K. and Blanchard‐Wrigglesworth, Ed and Deser, Clara and Jahn, Alexandra and Singh, Hansi and Smith, Madison M. and Webster, Melinda A. and Edwards, Jim and Lee, Sun‐Seon and Rodgers, Keith B. and Rosenbloom, Nan. (2022). Less Surface Sea Ice Melt in the CESM2 Improves Arctic Sea Ice Simulation With Minimal Non‐Polar Climate Impacts. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 14 (4), doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021MS002679
Crawford, Alex and Stroeve, Julienne and Smith, Abigail and Jahn, Alexandra. (2021). Arctic open-water periods are projected to lengthen dramatically by 2100. Communications Earth & Environment. 2 (1), doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-021-00183-x
Horvath, Sean and Stroeve, Julienne and Rajagopalan, Balaji and Jahn, Alexandra. (2021). Arctic sea ice melt onset favored by an atmospheric pressure pattern reminiscent of the North American-Eurasian Arctic pattern. Climate Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05776-y
Holland, M.M., M. Bushuk, A. Jahn, A. Roberts (2020). Integrating models and observations to better predict a changing Arctic sea ice cover. Arctic report card. (2020), doi:https://doi.org/10.25923/bx13-ja71
Smith, Abigail and Jahn, Alexandra and Wang, Muyin. (2020). Seasonal transition dates can reveal biases in Arctic sea ice simulations. The Cryosphere. 14 (9) 2977 to 2997, doi:10.5194/tc-14-2977-2020
DeRepentigny, Patricia and Jahn, Alexandra and Holland, Marika M. and Smith, Abigail. (2020). Arctic Sea Ice in Two Configurations of the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) During the 20th and 21st Centuries. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi:10.1029/2020JC016133
Community, SIMIP. (2020). Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters. 47 (10), doi:10.1029/2019GL086749
Published datasets and code related to the project:
Published datasets and code related to the project:
Wyburn-Powell, C (2022). Interannual variability of Arctic sea ice concentration and area for six climate model large ensembles and four observational datasets, 1979-2020. Arctic Data Center. doi:10.18739/A2H98ZF3T.
Smith, Abigail, A. Jahn, C. Burgard, and D. Notz (2022). Earliest snowmelt estimation dates for Arctic sea ice (2003), Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6559860
Chris Wyburn-Powell. (2022). chrisrwp/synthetic-ensemble: v1.0.0 (v1.0.0). Zenodo. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6687725
Smith, A. and A. Jahn (2020), Arctic sea ice seasonal transition metrics from coupled climate model simulations, 1979-2013, Arctic data Center, doi:10.18739/A2C53F235.
This project is funded by a NSF CAREER award, awarded to Alexandra Jahn.
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