This winter has been an unseasonal one so far. While Bozeman would normally face perfect temperatures of 35°F at most and 14° Fahrenheit as a low during January according to historical U.S. climate data, this January is looking to be a warm one. This month, the Weather Channel has predicted that temperatures could reach up to 39°F. So, why is this? Well, it could be due to the fact that the weather phenomenon El Niño is in effect this year. 

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, more commonly known as NOAA, “El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific, as opposed to La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. El Niño is an oscillation of the ocean-atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific…”  meaning that weather in our part of the world—the Northern Rockies and Canada—will be drier and warmer this winter season. 

This El Niño is shaping up to be one for the record books, with NOAA stating that it might, obtain a “…historically strong,” status and could “…potentially [rank] in the top 5 on record,” in accordance with NOAA’s system of El Niño classifications that ranks the weather systems. This is done by “…the three-month-average temperature of the central tropical Pacific Ocean, specifically in the Niño-3.4 region. The temperature anomaly—the difference from the long-term average, where long-term is currently 1991–2020—in this region is called the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)...an ONI anomaly of 1.5 °C [34.7° Fahrenheit] or warmer is considered a strong El Niño, with 2.0 °C [35.6° Fahrenheit] the threshold for ‘very strong’ or ‘historically strong.’” This season, for context, has had a temperature anomaly of around 1.8°C or 35.24°F, and experts at NOAA don’t expect it to cool down anytime soon. 

In addition, this historic strength weather pattern could be a result of the growing effects of global climate change and warming. NOAA has acknowledged this, stating that, “…the gradual rise in the strongest ONI anomalies is more likely a sign that some influence from global warming…”

All of this leads to our present problem of a lack of snow. This problem affects everything in our town, from the ski resorts that ring the valley, to Bozeman’s water supply, and finally to Montana’s fire season and environment in the summer. 

Firstly and most noticeably, the lack of precipitation has affected both the Bridger Bowl and Big Sky ski resorts, leaving both organizations floundering in the warm weather and pressuring them to create artificial snow to build a snow base that skiers can enjoy. However, artificial snow isn't a silver bullet—in fact, it can be costly. ESPN has stated that, “Ski areas spend anywhere from $500,000 to over $3.5 million per season to make snow.” Additionally, artificial snow doesn't last if temperatures don’t cool down, forcing the ski resorts to keep creating it throughout the season. Overall, artificial snow is expensive and can’t last if Mother Nature won’t allow it. 

Secondly, if the issue of snow persists into this spring and summer, Bozeman could be facing a tough time of conserving water. This is an issue because the city relies on, “...snowpack for its water supply, with 80% coming from snowmelt in the Gallatin Range, which feeds Bozeman Creek and Hyalite Creek,” according to the Bozeman City website on water conservation. This could lead to greater water restrictions by the city—an issue we are already dealing with due to climate change. 

Furthermore, this snow issue is one that has been concerning a member of Gallatin High School staff, Trevor Nichols, the AP Environmental Science teacher for some time. In an interview with this journalist, he stated that, “...I worry about our snowpack and the impact on river flows into the summer,” and later declared, “[I have] concerns as an angler that…we may see Hoot Owl restrictions sooner because of river flow and water temperatures.” Hoot Owl restrictions are when fishing is prohibited each day between two p.m. and midnight, according to Montana’s Fish Wildlife and Parks website. 

Lastly, there is a concern about Montana’s fire season. If El Niño causes an unusually dry and warm winter, our fire season might be enhanced by the lack of snowmelt come spring. One student, Jacob Santillanes, a senior here at Gallatin High School, mentioned a similar worry in my interview with him, saying that, “...the whole country will burn down.” This statement, while alarming, has truth in it. El Niño in the past has caused droughts in areas such as South America and Australia, according to an article written by National Geographic, which could lead to wildfires. 

So, in conclusion, the warmer weather caused by the El Niño weather pattern has far reaching and shocking effects in the Gallatin Valley and beyond, ranging from a lack of snow for skiing in the winter, and a nonexistent snowmelt in the spring, to greater risk of wildfires in the summer due to drier conditions.