Research and Interests

Tsunami-related publications:

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.A. Hansen (2010), Numerical modeling of the 1964 Alaska tsunami in western Passage Canal and Whittier, Alaska, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 10, 2489-2505.

Suleimani, E.N., D.J. Nicolsky, P.J. Haeussler and R.A. Hansen (2011), Combined effects of tectonic and landslide-generated tsunami runup at Seward,Alaska during the Mw9.2 1964 earthquake, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 168, pp. 1053–1074.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.A. Hansen (2011), Validation and verification of a numerical model for tsunami propagation and runup, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 168, pp. 1199–1222.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.A. Hansen (2013), Note on the 1964 Alaska tsunami generation by horizontal displacements of ocean bottom. Numerical modeling of the runup in Chenega Cove, Alaska, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 170, pp. 1433– 1447.

Horrillo, J., S.T. Grilli, D. Nicolsky, V. Roeber, and J. Zhang (2015), Performance Benchmarking Tsunami Models for NTHMPs Inundation Mapping Activities, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Volume 172, Issue 3-4, pp 869-884.

Harris, M.W., D.J. Nicolsky, E.N. Pelinovsky, and A.V. Rybkin (2015), Runup of nonlinear long waves in trapezoidal bays: 1-D analytical theory and 2-D numerical computations, Pure and Applied Geophysics, Volume 172, Issue 3-4, pp 885-899.

Harris, M.W., D.J. Nicolsky, E.N. Pelinovsky, J.M. Pender, and A.V. Rybkin (2016), Run-up of Nonlinear Long Waves in U-Shaped Bays of Finite Length: Analytical Theory and Numerical Computations, Journal of Ocean Engineering and Marine Energy, Volume 2, Issue 2, pp 113127.

Garayshin, V.V., M.W. Harris, D.J. Nicolsky, E.N. Pelinovsky, and A.V. Rybkin (2016), An analytical and numerical study of long wave run-up in U-shaped and V-shaped bays, Applied Mathematics and Computation, Volume 279, pp 187197.

Kirby, J.T., F. Shi, D. Nicolsky, and S. Misra (2016), The 27 April 1975 Kitimat, British Columbia submarine landslide tsunami: A comparison of modeling approaches, Landslides, 13:1421.

Nicolsky, D.J., J.T. Freymueller, R.C. Witter, E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler (2016), Evidence for shallow megathrust slip across the Unalaska seismic gap during the great 1957 Andreanof Islands earthquake, eastern Aleutian Islands, Alaska, Geophysical Research Letters, 43.

Anderson, D., M. Harris, H. Hartle, D. Nicolsky, E. Pelinovsky, A. Raz and A. Rybkin (2017), Run-Up of Long Waves in Piecewise Sloping U-Shaped Bays, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 23 pp.

Grilli, S.T., Shelby, M., Kimmoun, O., Dupont, G., Nicolsky, D., Ma, G., Kirby, J. and F. Shi (2017), Modeling coastal tsunami hazard from submarine mass failures: effect of slide rheology, experimental validation, and case studies off the US East coast, Natural Hazards, 86:353.

Lynett, P. et al. (2017) Inter-model analysis of tsunami-induced coastal currents, Ocean Modeling, 114, 14-32pp.

Tolkova, E., D.J. Nicolsky and D. Wang (2017), A response function approach for rapid far-field tsunami forecasting, Pure and Applied Geophysics, 174(8), 3249-3273.

Raz, A., Nicolsky, D., Rybkin, A., and E. Pelinovsky (2018), Long wave runup in asymmetric bays and in fjords with two separate heads, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 123, 20662080.

Nicolsky, D., E. Pelinovsky, A. Raz and A. Rybkin, (2018), General initial value problem for the nonlinear shallow water equations: Runup of long waves on sloping beaches and bays, Physics Letters A, 382 (38), 2738-2743.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, R.D.Koehler and J.B. Salisbury, (2019), Developing an approximate tsunami hazard zone for areas with poor topographic coverage in Alaska: Pure and Applied Geophysics, p. 1-21.

Tsunami Hazard Assessment Reports:

Suleimani, E.N., D.J. Nicolsky, D.A. West, R.A. Combellick, and R.A. Hansen (2010), Tsunami inundation maps of Seward and northern Resurrection Bay, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2010-1, 47 p., 3 sheets, scale 1:63,360.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, R.A. Combellick, and R.A. Hansen (2011), Tsunami inundation maps of Whittier and western Passage Canal, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2011-7, 65 p.

Nicolsky, D.J. (2012), Alaska Tsunami Model, in proceedings Results of the 2011 NTHMP model benchmarking workshop, p. 55-87., Boulder: U.S. Department of Commerce/ NOAA/NTHMP; (NOAA Special Report). 436 p., also available at http://nthmp.tsunami.gov.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, P.J. Haeussler, H.F. Ryan, R.D. Koehler, R.A. Combellick, and R.A. Hansen (2013), Tsunami Inundation Maps of Port Valdez, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2013-1, 77 p.

Suleimani, E.N., D.J. Nicolsky, and R.D. Koehler (2013), Tsunami inundation maps of Sitka, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2013-3, 76 p., 1 sheet, scale 1:250,000.

Nicolsky, D.J., and E.N. Suleimani (2013), Modeling tsunami dynamics in the port of Los Angeles, California, in Geist, E.L., ed., Modeling for the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario generation, propagation, inundation, and currents in ports and harbors: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131170C.

Ross, S.L., Jones, L.M., Miller, Kevin, P., K.A., Wein, A., Wilson, Ri.I., Bahng, B., Barberopoulou, A., Borrero, J.C., Brosnan, D.M., Bwarie, J.T., Geist, E.L., Johnson, L.A., Kirby, S.H., Knight, W.R., Long, K., Lynett, P., Mortensen, C.E., Nicolsky, D.J., Perry, S.C., Plumlee, G.S., Real, C.R., Ryan, K., Suleimani, E., Thio, H., Titov, V.V., Whitmore, P.M. and Wood, N.J., (2013), SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario Executive Summary and Introduction: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131170A, in Ross, S.L., and Jones, L.M., eds., The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 20131170, 17 p., http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2013/1170/a/

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler (2014), Tsunami inundation maps of Tatitlek and Cordova, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2014-1, 49 p. doi:10.14509/27241.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler (2014), Tsunami inundation maps of the village of Chenega Bay and the northern Sawmill Bay, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Report of Investigation 2014-3, 50 p. doi:10.14509/29126.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, J.T. Freymueller, and R.D. Koehler (2015), Tsunami inundation maps of Fox Islands communities, including Dutch Harbor and Akutan, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Report of Investigation 2015-5, 67 p., 2 sheets, scale 1:12,500. doi:10.14509/29414.

Suleimani, E.N., D.J. Nicolsky, and R.D. Koehler (2016), Tsunami Inundation Maps for Yakutat, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys, Report of Investigation 2016-2, 47 p., 1 sheet, scale 1:10,000. doi:10.14509/29577.

Suleimani, E.N., D.J. Nicolsky, R.D. Koehler, J.T. Freymueller, and A.E. Macpherson (2016), Tsunami Inundation Maps of Cold Bay and King Cove, Alaska, Alaska: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation, 2016-1, 73 p., 2 sheets, scale 1:12,500. doi:10.14509/29565.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler (2016), Tsunami inundation maps for the communities of Chignik and Chignik Lagoon, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2016-8, 48 p., 2 sheets, scale 1:12,500.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler (2016), Tsunami inundation map for the village of Nikolski, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2016-7, 34 p., 1 sheet, scale 1:25,000.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, and R.D. Koehler Tsunami inundation maps for the city of Sand Point, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2017-3, 61 p., 4 sheets, scale 1:15,000.

Suleimani, E.N., Nicolsky, D.J., and Koehler, R.D. (2017), Updated tsunami inundation maps of the Kodiak area, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2017-8, 38 p., 10 sheets.

Nicolsky, D.J., E.N. Suleimani, R.D. Koehler, and J.B. Salisbury (2017), Tsunami inundation maps for Juneau, Alaska, Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2017-9, 78 p., 5 sheets.

Nicolsky, D.J., Suleimani, E.N., and Salisbury, J.B., (2018), Tsunami inundation maps for Skagway and Haines, Alaska: Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys Report of Investigation 2018-2, 69 p., 3 sheets.

Permafrost-related publications:

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky, V.A. Alexeev, and D.M. Lawrence (2007), Improved modeling of permafrost dynamics in a GCM land-surface scheme, Geophysical Research Letters, 34(8): L08501.

Alexeev, V.A., D.J. Nicolsky, V.E. Romanovsky, D.M. Lawrence (2007), An evaluation of deep soil configurations in the CLM3 for improved representation of permafrost, Geophysical Research Letters, 34(9): L09502.

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky and G.S. Tipenko (2007), Using in-situ temperature measurements to estimate saturated soil thermal properties by solving a sequence of optimization problems, The Cryosphere, 1(1): 41-58.

Lawrence, D.M., A.G. Slater, V.E. Romanovsky and D.J. Nicolsky (2008), The sensitivity of a model projection of near-surface permafrost degradation to soil column depth and representation of soil organic matter, Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface, 113, F02011.

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky, G.S. Tipenko and D.A. Walker (2008), Modeling biogeophysical interactions in non-sorted circles in the Low Arctic, Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeoscience, 113, G03S05.

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky, G.S. Tipenko and D.A. Walker (2008), Modeling observed differential frost heave within non-sorted circles in Alaska, Ninth International Conference on Permafrost. Fairbanks, AK, June 29-July 3. 1281-1286.

Walker, D.A., H.E. Epstein, V. E. Romanovsky, C.L. Ping, G.J. Michaelson, R.P. Daanen, Y. Shur, R.A. Peterson, W.B. Krantz, M.K. Raynolds, W.A. Gould, G. Gonzalez, D.J. Nicolsky, C.M. Vonlanthen, A.N. Kade, P. Kuss, A.M. Kelley, C.A. Munger, C.T. Tarnocai, N.V. Matveyeva and F. J. A. Daniels (2008), Arctic patternedground ecosystems: A synthesis of field studies and models along a North American Arctic Transect, Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeoscience, 113, G03S01.

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky and G.G. Panteleev (2009), Estimation of soil thermal properties using in-situ temperature measurements in the active layer and permafrost, Cold Regions Science and Technology Journal, 55, pp. 120-129.

Shakhova, N.E. , D. Yu. Nicolsky and I.P. Semiletov (2009), Current state of subsea permafrost on the East Siberian Shelf: Tests of modeling results based on field observations, Doklady Earth Sciences, Vol. 429A, 9, pp. 1518–1521.

Nicolsky, D.J., and N. Shakhova (2010), Modeling sub-sea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf: the Dmitry Laptev Strait, Environ. Res. Lett. (5) 015006.

Nicolsky D.J., V.E. Romanovsky, N.N. Romanovskii, A.L. Kholodov, N.E. Shakhova, and I.P. Semiletov (2012), Modeling sub-sea permafrost in the East Siberian Arctic Shelf: The Laptev Sea Region, Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface, 117, F03028.

Sergienko V.I., L.I. Lobkovskii, I.P. Semiletov, O.V. Dudarev, N.N. Dmitrievskii, N.E. Shakhova, N.N. Romanovskii, D.A. Kosmach, D.J. Nikolskii, S.L. Nikiforov, A.S. Salomatin, R.A. Ananev, A.G. Roslyakov, A.N. Salyuk, V.V. Karnaukh, D.B. Chernykh, V.E. Tumskoi, V.I. Yusupov, A.V. Kurilenko, E.M. Chuvilin, and B.A. Bukhanov (2012), The Degradation of Submarine Permafrost and the Destruction of Hydrates on the Shelf of East Arctic Seas as a Potential Cause of the Methane Catastrophe: Some Results of Integrated Studies in 2011, Doklady Earth Sciences, Vol. 446, Part 1, pp. 11321137.

Rawlins, M., D.J. Nicolsky, K. McDonald, and V.E. Romanovsky (2013), Simulating Soil Freeze/Thaw Dynamics with an Improved Pan-Arctic Water Balance Model, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 5, 1-17.

Jafarov E.E., D.J. Nicolsky, V.E. Romanovsky, J.E.Walsh, S.K.Panda, and M.C.Serrezea (2014), The effect of snow: How to better model ground surface temperatures, Cold Region Science and Technology, 102, 63-67.

Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Ira Leifer, Valentin Sergienko, Anatoly Salyuk, Denis Kosmach, Denis Chernykh, Chris Stubbs, Dmitry Nicolsky, Vladimir Tumskoy and O¨rjan Gustafsson (2014), Massive methane release via ebullition and storms on the East Siberian Arctic Shelf, Nature Geoscience, 7, 6470.

Koven, C.D., E.A.G. Schuur, C. Schadel, T.J. Bohn, E.J. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, P. Ciais, G. Grosse, J.W. Harden, D.J. Hayes, G. Hugelius, E.E. Jafarov, G. Krinner, P. Kuhry, D.M. Lawrence, A.H. MacDougall, S.S. Marchenko, A.D. McGuire, S.M. Natali, D.J. Nicolsky, D. Olefeldt, S. Peng, V.E. Romanovsky, K.M. Schaefer, J. Strauss, C.C. Treat, M. Turetsky (2015), A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon-climate feedback, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140423.

Natalia Shakhova, Igor Semiletov, Valentin Sergienko, Leopold Lobkovsky, Vladimir Yusupov, Anatoly Salyuk, Alexander Salomatin, Denis Chernykh, Denis Kosmach, Gleb Panteleev, Dmitry Nicolsky, Vladimir Samarkin, Samantha Joye, Alexander Charkin, Oleg Dudarev, Alexander Meluzov, Orjan Gustafsson (2015), The East Siberian Arctic Shelf: towards further assessment of permafrost-related methane fluxes and role of sea ice, Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A, 373, 20140451.

McGuire, A.D., C. Koven, D.M. Lawrence, J.S. Clein, J. Xia, E. Burke, G. Chen, X. Chen, C. Delire, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, K. Saito, W. Zhang, R. Alkama, T.P. Ciais, B. Decharme, A. Ekici, I. Gouttevin, T. Hajima, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, D.P. Lettenmaier, Y. Luo, J.C. Moore, V. Romanovsky, C. Sch¨adel, K. Schaefer, E.A.G. Schuur, B. Smith, T. Sueyoshi, and Q. Zhuang (2016), Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, Global Biogeochem. Cycles, 30, 10151037.

Nicolsky, D.J., V.E. Romanovsky, S.K. Panda, S.S. Marchenko, and R.R. Muskett (2016), Applicability of the ecosystem type approach to model permafrost dynamics across the Alaska North Slope, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 121.

Melvin, A.M., P. Larsen, B. Boehlert, J. Neumann, P. Chinowsky, X. Espinet, J. Martinich, M.S. Baumann, L. Rennels, A. Bothner, D.J. Nicolsky, and S.S. Marchenko (2016), Climate change risks to Alaska public infrastructure: improved estimates of damages and the economics of proactive adaptation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v. 114, no. 2, E122E131.

McGuire, A.D. D.M. Lawrence, C. Koven, J.S. Clein, E. Burke, G. Chen, E. Jafarov, A.H. MacDougall, S. Marchenko, D. Nicolsky, S. Peng, A. Rinke, P. Ciais, I. Gouttevin, D.J. Hayes, D. Ji, G. Krinner, J.C. Moore, V. Romanovsky, C. Schadel, K. Schaefer, E.AG Schuur, Q. Zhuang (2018), Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Mar 2018, 201719903.

Nicolsky, D.J., and V.E. Romanovsky (2018), Modeling long-term permafrost degradation, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 123, 2018JF004655.

Garayshin, V.V., D.J. Nicolsky, and V.E. Romanovsky (2019),Numerical modeling of two-dimensional temperature field dynamics across non-deforming ice-wedge polygons, Cold Regions Science and Technology, 161: 115-128.