Coping with Uncertainty

The interdisciplinarian will often confront situations characterized by a great deal of uncertainty [Indeed complex systems are often uncertain by nature]. In such situations there is necessarily uncertainty also about how the system being studied will evolve or how it will respond to possible interventions. Roger E Kasperson Coping With Deep Uncertainty, Integration Insights #9 June 2008http://i2s.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/i2s-publications/integration-insight_9.pdf suggests six strategies for coping with uncertainty:

· Perform research to obtain more information

· Wait until we naturally learn more about the system

· Compare the system to similar systems about which we know more

· Pursue the precautionary principle by employing scenario planning and intervening to reduce the likelihood of bad outcomes

· If intervening, encourage policy resilience by ensuring that relevant agencies can react quickly as the system evolves

· Encourage resilience in the wider society