My Profile

Saint Louis University,  Simon Chair of Economics
Director of the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting
(314) 977-3813        DS 302

Work Experience

Saint Louis University, Simon Chair of Economics,
Director of the Simon Center for Regional Forecasting

University of Hawaii, Summer 2011, 2012
Taught Advanced Capital Markets

Monetary Adviser to the National Bank of Azerbaijan
Designed an Inflation and Money Demand Forecasting Model 

Monetary and Econometric Adviser to the Central Bank of Egypt - Constructed Macroeconomic & Monetary Model for the Central Bank

Macroeconomic and Econometric Adviser to the Government of Ukraine Designed an integrated macroeconomic and revenue model  of the Ukrainian Economy

Economist Intelligence Unit Consultant for 4 years
 Responsible for evaluating and forecasting Ukraine’s performance for 14 Country Reports.

Kiev Mohyla University Professor
Macroeconomics and Statistics Professor in a Masters program in Ukraine

Some Recent Publications:
"Does Housing Drive State-Level Job Growth?:  Building Permits and Consumer Expectations Forecast a State's Economic Activity"
Forthcoming  Journal of Urban Economics. Online Appendix.

"International Stock Return Predictability: What is the Role of the United States"
With David Rapach and Guofu Zhou.  Forthcoming Journal of Finance.

“Forecasting U.S. State-Level Employment Growth: An Amalgamation Approach.With David Rapach. Journal of International Forecasting, June 2012

"How Predictable is the Chinese Stock Market." with Jun Tu and Goufu Zhou. Best Paper Award at The Chinese Finance Association, NYC, 2010.  Journal of Financial Research, China, 9, 2011.

“Predicting Market Components Out of Sample: Asset Allocation Implications.” With David Rapach and Guofu Zhou. Journal of Portfolio Management. June 2011

Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Prediction: Combination Forecasts and Links to the Real Economy,” with David Rapach and Guofu Zhou. Review of Financial Studies. Feb. 2010 23(2):821-862

Bagging or Combining (or Both)? An Analysis Based on Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth with David Rapach .  Econometric Reviews. Special Issue, 2010 

Differences in Housing Price Forecastability Across U.S. States,” with David Rapach, International Journal of Forecasting. April-June 2009.

 “Forecasting U.S. Employment Growth Using Forecast Combining Methods,” with David E. Rapach, Journal of Forecasting, Jan. 2008.
“Structural Breaks and GARCH Models of Exchange Rate Volatility,” with David E. Rapach, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 23,1 65 – 90. 2008. The article was the 3 most downloaded articles for the year.

Working Papers

Industry return Predictability: Does it matter out-of-sample?"With David Rapach, Jun Tu and Guofu Zhou.

Forecasting Inflation in Nepal: Handing Instability with Combination Forecasts” submitted to the Central Bank of Nepal Economic Review.

"Financial Sector Shocks and G7 Business-Cycle Fluctuations." with David Rapach. Presentation of Slides at SNDE, March 2011.