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Duveneck to present at upcoming US-IALE meeting

posted Apr 2, 2013, 3:53 PM by   [ updated Apr 2, 2013, 3:54 PM ]

Title:  A Tale of Two Landscapes:  Climate Change in Northern Minnesota and Northern Lower Michigan Forests

Authors: Matthew J. Duveneck & Robert M. Scheller

Date: April 15, 2013


The ability of forests to naturally adapt to climate change will depend on the response capability of the existing forests.  Landscapes throughout the northern Great Lakes region span a latitudinal gradient within the boreal temperate transition zone and vary widely in regards to fragmentation, tree species diversity, and functional diversity.  We assessed the forest response to climate change in northeastern Minnesota, compared to northern lower Michigan.  We simulated aboveground biomass (AGB), harvesting, wind, and wildfire, using the forest ecosystem model, LANDIS-II.  We simulated the effects of three climate regimes (current climate, PCM-B1  and GFDL A1FI) over 150 years.  Simulations of a high emissions scenario (GFDL A1FI) resulted in a continual decline in total AGB in the Michigan landscape whereas simulations of northern Minnesota indicated a partial recovery in AGB after 100 years.  Northern hardwood species in low abundance in Minnesota increased rapidly in the high emissions scenario but did not respond as favorably in northern lower Michigan.  Simulations of the Minnesota landscape also resulted in more forest-type conversion compared to Michigan.  Our results suggest that within the temperate-boreal ecotone, climate adaptability of landscapes will vary. In some regions, AGB recovery is projected at the expense of more forest type conversions.