Active: Forest Change in Ft. Bragg, North Carolina

People:  Robert Scheller (PI/co-PI), Melissa Lucash(PI/co-PI), Matthew Duveneck(co-PI), Rod Fleming (DoD), Paul Schrum (PhD student), and many other incredible people that are successfully managing the Ft. Bragg landscape!

Funding:  This research was funded by the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP), Project#: RC-201702.

Introduction to Videos:  As part of a larger project that examined the future of the Ft. Bragg landscape, the Department of Defense also funded the production of four short (< 6:00) videos that highlight the motivations, challenges, and successes of the natural resources professionals that care for these lands.  The fourth video specifically examines how a changing future may affect landscape management in the coming decades.  The research and videos were a joint collaboration with Ft. Bragg natural resource managers, North Carolina State University, University of Oregon, and Harvard University.

Video #1:  Introduction  YouTube  Vimeo

Video #2:  Red-cockaded Woodpeckers YouTube Vimeo

Video #3:  The Role of Prescribed Fire YouTube Vimeo

Video #4:  The Future of Ft. Bragg Forests YouTube Vimeo

Project Summary: 

Ensuring the long-term sustainability of military installations in the face of climate variability and change will require natural resource managers to have the best available climate change research at their fingertips to make sound management decisions. Landscape change models now allow realistic projections of future forest conditions in response to anticipated climate, natural disturbance, forest management, and their interactions.  These models inform forest management decisions. However, there is no single model that is perfectly suited to addressing all climate change and management related questions.  We set out to, a) compare two modeling frameworks against empirical data and to each other, b) examine climate change, disturbance, and management interactions at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina, and c) provide guidance for future management assuming climate change and other disturbances. 

Final Report

Important Links:

Git Hub Pages: https://github.com/LANDIS-II-Foundation/Project-Fort-Bragg-NC 

In Phase I (completed) we calibrated and compared two models, an individual-tree scale model (SORTIE-PPA) and a landscape-scale model (LANDIS-II), against empirical data collected from two pine-dominated sites in the eastern US. 

In Phase II (completed), we compared the NECN and PnET extensions for LANDIS-II within the Ft. Bragg ecosystem in central North Carolina under multiple projections of climate change. We assessed the strengths and weakness of each model and their respective capacity to accurately project a suite of ecosystem processes, including succession, disturbance and nutrient cycling, given current and potential management practices and anticipated climate change. We worked closely with Ft. Bragg to prepare both models for operational use via an iterative process that identifies goals and scenarios, data needs, and desired outputs. Both models were delivered to Ft. Bragg fully parameterized and prepared for subsequent use, including full documentation and access to the open-source code for each model.