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### F. Probability

 Use nrich as base for probability through problems.http://nrich.maths.org/987712 eggs (4 bad) simulation, Tom Cruise video, from @boblochDuring the elective quarter, I will meet with AP students for 30-minute sessions (at the start of class) for 20 days before the AP test.  Each session will either study the overall structure of the exam or go into depth about a specific topic that we did not cover during the first quarter.  Most sessions will have follow-up homework.  At the end of the bootcamp, there will be an AP practice exam that will count for some points in the quarter grade.We will use most fantastic AP Statistics prep book ever made to guide our study: REA's AP Statistics 4th edition.  We will also use the many released AP exam questions posted on the College Board's website.Learning the structure of the AP testReview time limits and numbers of questions in each sectionPreview a released multiple choice section and discuss challenge levelLearn how to browse the College Board's posted FRQs from past examsFree response questions:In a group, grade a few FRQs using AP's rubric.Discuss what types of things AP readers generally look for in an FRQExploring data:1A. Graphical displays of univariate data1B. Summarize univariate data1C. Comparing distributions (one categorical, one quantitative)1E. Two-way tables (two quantitative)Exploring data -- scatterplots:1D. Scatterplots, regression, residual plots, log/power transformations (two quantitative)Sampling and experimentation:2A. Overview of data collection2B. Conducting surveys2C. Conduction experiments (including review of block and matched pairs designs)2D: Types of conclusions drawn from experiments and observational studiesIntro to probability:3A: random events, and/or rules, Venn diagrams, event trees, Law of Large NumbersDiscrete random variables:3A: applications, setting up a table, foundations for binomial/geometric random variablesBinomial/geometric distributions:3A: applications, differences in qualifications, simulating, predicting with formula, predicting with TI-83Simulation:3A: using random table of digits to simulate outcomes of discrete random variable, performing linear transform on resultBlending distributions:3B: why we combine two independent distributions, how to combine them using AP formula sheetNormal distribution:3C: continuous vs. discrete distributions, z-scores, area under regions of the normal curve, showing AP FRQ-quality work, approx to binomial dist.Sampling distributions:3D: calculate the mean and standard error for 1-mean, 2-means, 1-prop, and 2-prop distributions and display as normal distributionsStudent's t and Chi-Square distributions3D: degrees of freedom, when the distribution applies, calculating probabilities with the TI-83General form of a confidence interval:4A: point estimates, margin of error, general form, using the formulas of standard error and the z* critical valueProperly presenting confidence intervals for the FRQs4A: general procedure, assumptions for inference, interpreting, practicing examples from past FRQs, PANICReview of hypothesis testing:4B: hypotheses, errors, power, effect of sample size changesProper FRQ form of a hypothesis test:4B: interpreting p-value in a sentence, PHANTOMSAP multiple choice practice exam:90 minute full exam in classAP FRQ practice exam:90 minute full exam in classGrading peer FRQ exam:Reading in groups and practicing following the AP rubric, debating scoring