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F. Probability

Use nrich as base for probability through problems.

12 eggs (4 bad) simulation, Tom Cruise video, from @bobloch

During the elective quarter, I will meet with AP students for 30-minute sessions (at the start of class) for 20 days before the AP test.  Each session will either study the overall structure of the exam or go into depth about a specific topic that we did not cover during the first quarter.  Most sessions will have follow-up homework.  At the end of the bootcamp, there will be an AP practice exam that will count for some points in the quarter grade.

We will use most fantastic AP Statistics prep book ever made to guide our study: REA's AP Statistics 4th edition.  We will also use the many released AP exam questions posted on the College Board's website.
  • Learning the structure of the AP test
    • Review time limits and numbers of questions in each section
    • Preview a released multiple choice section and discuss challenge level
    • Learn how to browse the College Board's posted FRQs from past exams
  • Free response questions:
    • In a group, grade a few FRQs using AP's rubric.
    • Discuss what types of things AP readers generally look for in an FRQ
  • Exploring data:
    • 1A. Graphical displays of univariate data
    • 1B. Summarize univariate data
    • 1C. Comparing distributions (one categorical, one quantitative)
    • 1E. Two-way tables (two quantitative)
  • Exploring data -- scatterplots:
    • 1D. Scatterplots, regression, residual plots, log/power transformations (two quantitative)
  • Sampling and experimentation:
    • 2A. Overview of data collection
    • 2B. Conducting surveys
    • 2C. Conduction experiments (including review of block and matched pairs designs)
    • 2D: Types of conclusions drawn from experiments and observational studies
  • Intro to probability:
    • 3A: random events, and/or rules, Venn diagrams, event trees, Law of Large Numbers
  • Discrete random variables:
    • 3A: applications, setting up a table, foundations for binomial/geometric random variables
  • Binomial/geometric distributions:
    • 3A: applications, differences in qualifications, simulating, predicting with formula, predicting with TI-83
  • Simulation:
    • 3A: using random table of digits to simulate outcomes of discrete random variable, performing linear transform on result
  • Blending distributions:
    • 3B: why we combine two independent distributions, how to combine them using AP formula sheet
  • Normal distribution:
    • 3C: continuous vs. discrete distributions, z-scores, area under regions of the normal curve, showing AP FRQ-quality work, approx to binomial dist.
  • Sampling distributions:
    • 3D: calculate the mean and standard error for 1-mean, 2-means, 1-prop, and 2-prop distributions and display as normal distributions
  • Student's t and Chi-Square distributions
    • 3D: degrees of freedom, when the distribution applies, calculating probabilities with the TI-83
  • General form of a confidence interval:
    • 4A: point estimates, margin of error, general form, using the formulas of standard error and the z* critical value
  • Properly presenting confidence intervals for the FRQs
    • 4A: general procedure, assumptions for inference, interpreting, practicing examples from past FRQs, PANIC
  • Review of hypothesis testing:
    • 4B: hypotheses, errors, power, effect of sample size changes
  • Proper FRQ form of a hypothesis test:
    • 4B: interpreting p-value in a sentence, PHANTOMS
  • AP multiple choice practice exam:
    • 90 minute full exam in class
  • AP FRQ practice exam:
    • 90 minute full exam in class
  • Grading peer FRQ exam:
    • Reading in groups and practicing following the AP rubric, debating scoring